157 Project Reference: 3360.109 Environment and Transport Commissioning Framework Coalville Transport Strategy Refresh Technical Report June 2020 Project Code: 3360.109 158 Project Reference: 3360.109 Document Sign-off Control Details K:\TMODELLING\03. 3360 (Internal)\MF3360.109 Coalville Transport Study Revision - Document February 2020\12. Deliverables\01. Reports\3360.109 Coalville Transport Study Location: Refresh_Report_v2.1.docx Production Microsoft Word 2010 Software: Authors: RB Owner: Alex Gray, Network Data and Intelligence Team Document history and status Ver Date Description Author Review Approved Released 1.0 3-4-20 Draft version for release to the client RB 2.0 12-5-20 2nd Draft version for release to the client RB MP/JR 2.1 11-6-20 Final RB MP/JR AJG RB Model and software Version Model PRTM 1.7 Unconstrained (HH231Emp21_CTS) Version: SATURN SATURN 11.4.07H Version: This document has been prepared by Leicestershire County Council for the sole use of our client (the “Client”) and in accordance with the terms and conditions of service provision under the Transport Modelling & Planning Framework, the budget for fees and the terms of reference agreed between Leicestershire County Council and the Client. Any information provided by third parties and referred to herein has not been checked or verified by Leicestershire County Council, unless otherwise expressly stated in the document. No third party may rely upon this document without the prior and express written agreement of Leicestershire County Council. Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2020. Whilst the modelling work outlined in this report has been carried out using the Pan Regional Transport Model (PRTM), its findings and any conclusions do not necessarily represent the views of Leicestershire County Council as the Highway Authority. 159 Project Reference: 3360.109 Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 3 1.1. Background ........................................................................................................................ 3 1.2. Study Aim ........................................................................................................................... 6 1.3. Model Overview ................................................................................................................. 6 2. Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 7 2.1. Background Development Included in the 2036 PRTM Forecasts ..................................... 7 2.2. Scenarios Undertaken ...................................................................................................... 10 2.3. Area of Influence .............................................................................................................. 11 2.4. Presentation of Modelling Output ..................................................................................... 12 3. Results: Background Growth and Core Analysis ....................................................... 14 3.1. Background Growth in Traffic Flow (2014-2036) .............................................................. 14 3.2. Impact across the SYSTRA AoI ....................................................................................... 14 3.3. Flow Difference ................................................................................................................ 16 3.4. Delay Difference ............................................................................................................... 19 3.5. Junction Performance ...................................................................................................... 22 3.6. Journey Times .................................................................................................................. 28 4. Results: Impact of the A511 MRN Scheme .................................................................. 30 4.1. Impact across the AoI ...................................................................................................... 30 4.2. Flow Difference ................................................................................................................ 32 4.3. Delay Difference ............................................................................................................... 35 4.4. Junction Performance ...................................................................................................... 39 4.5. Journey Times .................................................................................................................. 42 4.6. Select Link Analysis (SLA) ............................................................................................... 46 5. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 50 6. Appendices ..................................................................................................................... 52 6.1. Appendix A : Latest NWLDC Planning Data (Committed/Highly Likely) ........................... 52 6.2. Appendix B : Future Committed/Highly Likely Highway Schemes .................................... 54 6.3. Appendix C : Comparison of Future NWLDC Housing Returns (Current vs Previous) ..... 55 6.4. Appendix D : Distance-Time Graphs ................................................................................ 56 6.5. Appendix E : Select Link Analysis – Difference (Scheme – Core) .................................... 62 7. Contact Details ............................................................................................................... 63 Table of Figures Figure 1.1 Extent of the A511 MRN Scheme ............................................................................... 5 Figure 2.1 Change in 2036 Housing Input : A511 MRN vs Latest CTS Dataset(excl. Windfalls) . 8 Figure 2.2 2036 Employment Input used for A511 MRN and CTS (excl. Windfalls) .................... 9 Figure 2.3 Area of Influence : Original Systra vs A511 MRN Scheme ....................................... 11 Figure 3.1 AM Peak Hour Flow Difference (2036 Core – 2014 Base) ........................................ 17 Figure 3.2 PM Peak Hour Flow Difference (2036 Core – 2014 Base) ........................................ 18 Figure 3.3 The A511/Waterworks Road Junction ....................................................................... 19 Figure 3.4 AM Peak Hour Delay Difference (2036 Core – 2014 Base) ...................................... 20 160 Project Reference: 3360.109 Figure 3.5 PM Peak Hour Delay Difference (2036 Core – 2014 Base) ...................................... 21 Figure 3.6 V/C Breakdown of AM Peak Hour Junction Performance by Scenario ..................... 23 Figure 3.7 V/C Breakdown of PM Peak Hour Junction Performance by Scenario ..................... 24 Figure 3.8 AM Peak Hour Junction Performance by Scenario where V/C > 100% .................... 25 Figure 3.9 PM Peak Hour Junction Performance by Scenario where V/C > 100% .................... 25 Figure 3.10 2036 Core Junctions exceeding 100% VoC by Movement ..................................... 26 Figure 3.11 Largest Peak Hour VoC Changes between 2014 Base and 2036 Core Scenarios . 27 Figure 3.12 Journey Time Routes for Analysis .......................................................................... 28 Figure 4.1 2036 AM Peak Hour Flow Difference (Scheme – Core) ............................................ 33 Figure 4.2 2036 PM Peak Hour Flow Difference (Scheme – Core) ............................................ 34 Figure 4.3 2036 AM Peak Hour Delay Difference (Scheme – Core) .......................................... 36 Figure 4.4 2036 PM Peak Hour Delay Difference (Scheme – Core) .......................................... 37 Figure 4.5 Comparison of Scenario Journey Times : A511 Eastbound (PM) ............................. 38 Figure 4.6 Comparison of Scenario Journey Times : A511 Westbound (PM) ............................ 38 Figure 4.7 2036 AM Comparison of Core vs Scheme V/C ......................................................... 39 Figure 4.8 2036 PM Comparison of Core vs Scheme V/C ......................................................... 40 Figure 4.9 With Scheme Junctions exceeding 100% VoC by Movement ................................... 41 Figure 4.10 AM Journey Time Impact on the A511 Route Westbound ...................................... 44 Figure 4.11 AM Journey Time Impact on the Broom Leys Route Northbound ........................... 45 Figure 4.12 AM Journey Time Impact on the Grange Road Route Westbound ......................... 46 Figure 4.13 Sites for the Select Link Analysis ............................................................................ 47 Figure 4.14 AM Bardon Link Road SLA ..................................................................................... 48 Figure 4.15 PM Bardon Link Road SLA ..................................................................................... 48 Figure 4.16 AM SLA Difference (Scheme – Core) : A511 West of Flying Horse ........................ 49 Figure 6.1 2036 Housing Input (excl. Windfalls) used for A511 MRN OBC (Superseded) ......... 55 Figure 6.2 2036 Housing Input (excl. Windfalls)