Statewide Rail Capacity and Needs Study first interim report prepared for Washington State Transportation Commission prepared by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. with Berk & Associates, Inc. Global Insight, Inc. HDR, Inc. Starboard Alliance Company Transit Safety Management Willard F. Keeney & Associates) May 2006 www.camsys.com first interim report Statewide Rail Capacity and Needs Study prepared for Washington State Transportation Commission prepared by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 555 12th Street, Suite 1600 Oakland, California 94607 with Berk & Associates, Inc. Global Insight, Inc. HDR, Inc. Starboard Alliance Company Transit Safety Management Willard F. Keeney & Associates date May 2006 Statewide Rail Capacity and Needs Study Table of Contents Executive Summary ..................................................................................................ES-1 What Is the Purpose of the Study? ................................................................. ES-1 What Are the Key Concerns That Are Driving the Study?......................... ES-1 What Is the Purpose of This Interim Report? ............................................... ES-2 Findings of Phase I............................................................................................ ES-3 Conclusions of Phase I ................................................................................... ES-11 1.0 Introduction .........................................................................................................1-1 1.1 Background..................................................................................................1-1 What Is the Purpose of the Study?...........................................................1-1 1.2 Washington State Concerns and Policy Questions ................................1-2 What Are the State’s Concerns About Rail Transportation?................1-2 What Are the State’s Key Policy Questions? ..........................................1-3 1.3 The Study.....................................................................................................1-4 What Is the Study Process? .......................................................................1-4 What Is the Purpose of This Interim Report? .........................................1-5 2.0 Overview of the Washington Rail System: Network, Users, and Carriers..................................................................................................................2-1 2.1 The Washington Freight-Rail Network ...................................................2-1 What Is the Washington State Rail Network?........................................2-1 How Does the Washington State Rail Network Connect to the National Rail Network?.............................................................................2-6 What Are the Primary Rail Corridors and Terminals in Washington State?....................................................................................2-10 2.2 Washington State Rail Network Capacity.............................................2-14 What Is the Capacity of the Washington State Rail Network Today?........................................................................................................2-14 What Is Meant by Rail Capacity?...........................................................2-14 What Factors Have the Greatest Effect on Rail Capacity?..................2-19 How Was Rail Capacity Measured for This Study? ............................2-20 What Are and Where Are the Major Bottlenecks in the Washington State Rail Network? ...........................................................2-21 2.3 Freight-Rail Commodities .......................................................................2-26 What Commodities Move Over the Washington State Rail Network? ...................................................................................................2-26 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. i 7658.001 Table of Contents, continued What Commodities Will Move Over the Rail Network in the Future? .......................................................................................................2-29 What Are the Rail-Freight Flows?..........................................................2-30 2.4 Rail Users ...................................................................................................2-34 Who Ships and Receives These Commodities?....................................2-34 How Important Are These Industries to the Washington State Economy? ..................................................................................................2-35 What Is the Economic Outlook for Washington State’s Freight- Rail Intensive Industries?........................................................................2-37 What Is the Business Environment for Shippers and Receivers? ......2-39 What Do Shippers Need From the Freight Railroads?........................2-43 2.5 International Trade Port/Rail System ...................................................2-43 What Are the Main Elements of Washington’s Rail-Dependent International Trade Port System?...........................................................2-43 What is the Significance of the International Trade Sector to the State and National Economy?.................................................................2-44 How Effectively Is Rail Meeting the Needs of the International Trade Port System? ..................................................................................2-45 What is the Outlook for International Trade and Washington State’s Rail System?..................................................................................2-46 What Do the Ports Need from the Rail System? ..................................2-46 2.6 Freight Railroads.......................................................................................2-47 Who Are the Freight Railroads?.............................................................2-47 What Services Do the Freight Railroads Provide?...............................2-53 What Is the Business Environment for Freight Railroads?.................2-56 2.7 Passenger Rail Users ................................................................................2-61 Who Are Passenger-Rail Users?.............................................................2-61 Who Provides Passenger-Rail Services and What Are There Market Areas?...........................................................................................2-62 Commuter Rail..........................................................................................2-64 How Well Do the Services Work?..........................................................2-65 What Is the Growth Forecast for Ridership? ........................................2-67 How do Capacity Issues Affect Passenger Rail Service? ....................2-68 What Are the Plans to Serve Future Passenger Demand?..................2-69 What are Key Issues Facing the Washington State Passenger Rail Services?.............................................................................................2-70 3.0 Findings and Conclusions.................................................................................3-1 3.1 Findings........................................................................................................3-1 3.2 Conclusions .................................................................................................3-3 ii Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 7658.001 Statewide Rail Capacity and Needs Study 4.0 Building Policy Options....................................................................................4-1 4.1 Policy Options.............................................................................................4-1 Policy #1: Rail Programs Conducted by the State Can Support Economic Growth and Competitiveness ................................................4-2 Policy #2: State Rail Programs Can Support Local Economic Development...............................................................................................4-3 Policy #3: State Rail Programs Can Sustain Communities..................4-4 Policy #4: State Passenger Rail Programs Should Cost- Effectively Improve Passenger Mobility.................................................4-5 Policy #5: State Rail Programs Should Seek to Minimize Community Impacts ..................................................................................4-5 Appendix. A Closer Look at Washington State Rail Users................................A-1 A.1 Merchandise Trade and Retail Industries ..............................................A-1 Industry.......................................................................................................A-1 Who Are the Merchandise Trade and Retail Sector Users of the Washington State Rail System and What Benefits Do They Bring to the State?......................................................................................A-1 What and How Much Do They Ship? ....................................................A-4 Outlook........................................................................................................A-4 What is the Growth Forecast for the Industry?.....................................A-4 How Will Freight Demand Increase? .....................................................A-5 Supply Chain..............................................................................................A-7 How Does Their Supply Chain Work?...................................................A-7 How Well Does Rail Meet