MONTHLY REVIEW O>i AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN TH E NINTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT JOHN R. MITCH=LL, Chairman of the Boud Cvati: L. and Federal Reserve Agent MosHeR-3. F . EseksoLa: Assistant Federxi Reicrve A~eata Serial VOL III ~iVO . 116 Minneapolis, Minnesota September 27, 1924 13:IlITOItIAL 11TOTICIhr of -This report !s prepared monfhly fa the office of tlse Federal provtdfng the Federal Reserve Board Rfth complete Rmervc Agcht for the parpone to fhe Northwest. It fs also accurate, and impartlnl iaiormatton, conceralng gnslaess prlated for public ase and erfli be mailed free of charge conditions to aagoac ma~dag regoast for it . DISTRICT SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH Separate yield and production figures for bread and durum wheat will be given in the nezt The improved agricultural outlook, based on in- report. month's creased estimates for small grain production, and stronger prices for livestock, corn, rye, and barley, The corn production forecast on September 1 has been offset to some extent by a reduction in for our four states showed a decline of nearly 8,000,- corn crop estimates, due to unsatisfactory weather 000 bushels, to 261,105,000 bushels, or 76,500,000 conditions. Buying power on the farm has revived, bushels less than 1923 ; but the four state total is as reflected in increased sales and shipments o¬ farm still nearly 5,000,000 bushels greater than the pre- implements and other "capital" equipment, although vious five year average. The September 1 forecast some of this may represent necessitous replacement. for the whole United States, however, was only Urban business conditions show little change. Manu- 2,500,000,000 bushels, 500,000,000 bushels less facturing alone has maintained the volume of last than last year and 386,000,000 bushels less than month or last year, after allowance for seasonal fac- the previous five year average. The condition of tors. Prospective building is mach below last year the corn crop on September I ranged from 61 per at this time. Financial conditions are particularly cent in Minnesota to 67 per pent in Montana. South favorable for business expansion as interest rates Dakota reported a condition of 65 per cent. A have shown a declining tendency and loans and de- special telegraphic investigation made by this office posits have increased. as of September 10 indicated a slightly lowered con- dition by that date, due to frosts and cool weather, an average for the heavy TOPICAL REVIEWS corn producing sections of only 60 per cent. The increased acreage planted to 1Nheat improved and corn declined corn this year, when compared with last in September with year, or forecasts. Continued favorable the previous five year average, means a con- weather during the siderable reduction in month of August for the development the acre yield, but it also of small grains means a large increase in the production of resulted in further increases in the forecasted pro- and ensilage duction for fodder corn, which accounts for a large portion each of the four complete states in the of the acreage in this district Ninth Federal Reserve District, each year. The cold according to the nights and rainy weather during August retarded September 1 report of the Agricultural Statisticians corn in each state. development in Minnesota and North and , The increase in all spring wheat be- South Dakota. The cool periods tween August 1 and September 1 was held it back to 21,176,000 some extent in Montana, but hot dry weather in bushels, which is nearly 2,000,000 bushels more some instances thali the total did even more damage. Many fields estimated Minnesota crop in 1923. throughout the district have already Mast of this increase occurred in North been frosted, Dakota, but a large proportion of this corn has been put into where the forecasted yield per acre was increased silos. from 12.3 bushels Much corn was reported as being in the dent to 14.3 bushels during August. as early as the middle of last The Minnesota forecast of acre yield was month, which means the high- that there will be grain corn produced, but the qual- est of our four states, 1 7.2 bushels, with an extreme- is ly favorable ity problematical. It is doubtful if much corn condition percentage of 98. Montana will make high enough reported the lowest condition quality to qualify as good percentage, 75, on ac- seed corn. AlI fields which do mature count of damage to the crop earlier in the season should be from hot gone over and all corn good enough for seed should weather and insufficient moisture. The be saved. Otherwise an forecasted acre yield was 15 .0 acute seed corn shortage bushels. The quality might develop neat spring, as the Ferry-over of Was reported very good, especially in the eastern from seed section, where 1923 is not reported to be sufficient for an- the yields were heaviest. other year's planting. 66 AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS s~t~6~r27, 1924 The fall grain movement began in this district dur- of corn, and the ratio of ing August, but as usual it had not yet of profitableness, on the basis full proportions reached its corn and hog prices, increased slightly during . In fact, while receipts of wheat month, if there the at Minneapolis and is a short corn crop, the ratio be- Duluth-Superior increased one- tween the pxice of corn and half over July, they were not up to the, price of hogs will August the level of not tell the whole story of profit or Ions to last year, in spite .. of the larger crop this stock producer, the live- Year. The late season for other feeds will be used more undoubtedly accounts for the liberally as price relationships tardy movement of the crop, for there between corn and of is no evidence other grains and feedstuffs become dissatisfaction with present wheat prices. Oats anced. more unbal- and care arrived in much greater ust than quantities in Aug- in July and in larger quantities than a year Livestock receipts at South ago . There were seasonal St. Paul showed sea- increases also in receipts sonal increases between July of barley and rye, but the volume and August in the case was of these grains of cattle and sheep, and seasonal declines for smaller than in August last year. The flax move- and hogs. calves ment has not been as Receipts of hogs and sheep were larger, large as many observers ex» and cattle and calf receipts petted, in view of the great increase were smaller than in over last in production August last year, The volume of calves year. Receipts of flax at northwestern moving to market and hags terminals were 23 per was not far above the 10-year av- cent lower in August than in erage, while sheep and cattle July and were only one-fourth of receipts were below ceived the volume re- the 10-year average. in August last year froth the smaller crap, As August marks the beginning Stocks of all grains at Minneapolis of the fall feeder Superior and Duluth- movement to the country, it is interesting to increased during August, with the ezcep- that the movement note tion of wheat and flax, and of feeder cattle and calves dur- stocks of oats and corn ing the month was the smallest of were larger than last year. At the end of years, all the post-war stocks of rye August, while shipments of feeder hogs in August wore were the largest of any of the grains, the largest in any amounting to nearly 7 million corresponding month since the bushels, with wheat war, with the exception of August, 1922, second and oats third. menu of and ship» feeder sheep we're larger than last year, Grain prices showed mixed but not as large as August shipments the tendencies during post-war in the other month of August. Our medians computed for yea;s. August were lower than in July in the case of wheat Livestock and oats, higher for corn, barley and prices made a notable advance during tically rye, and prac- August in practically every class unchanged for flea. The declines in wheat dex . Our weighted in- and oats were due to reports of livestock prices at South St. Paul, corrected of alarger crop of these for seasonal changes, grains than had been reported earlier reached 86.29 in August, as and to the in the year compared with 74.48 in July and increase in receipts at the terminal mar- 1924, 69.26 in March, kets, especially in the case which was the lowest point in. the recent price of oats. The median decline. The August price of number three yellow corn is August reached &gure has not been equalled $i . i 4, owing to since December, i 922, when our the pressing need in some quarters Alarge index was 90.81 . for immediate supplies before share of the increase in the index was caused the new crop is ready by a rise in the median for market. Fortunately for the hog producer, pxice of hogs from $7.10 price of hogs the per hundredweight to $9,25 between has risen simultaneously with the price ust. July an~T Aug- This increase is the more remarkable as there is SEPTEMBER i PRODUCTION FORECASTS BY STATES WITH COMP'ARI50NS (In bushels, 000's omitted) Spring Wheat Oats Forecast Forecast Estimate Corn Forecast Forecast Estimate Forecast 9-1-24 8-I-24 1923 9-i-24 Forecast Estimate Minnesota .