AS.45(1)_Covers 1&4 2/18/05 12:36 PM Page 1 ASIAN SURVEY Volume XLV XLV Volume A Bimonthly Review of Contemporary Asian Affairs I University of California Press Vol. XLV, No. 1, January/February 2005 I A SURVEY OF ASIA IN 2004 Number 1 IIThe United States and Asia in 2004 • JONATHAN D. POLLACKIIINorth Korea in 2004 • KYUNG-AE PARKIIIChina in 2004 • MARY E. GALLAGHERIIISouth Korea in 2004 • VICTOR D. CHAIIIJapan in 2004 • NOBUHIRO HIWATARIIIITaiwan in 2004 • I STEVE CHANIIIRussia and the CIS in 2004 • HIROSHI KIMURAIIIMongolia in 2004 January/February 2005 • NYAMOSOR TUYAIIIIndia in 2004 • BALDEV RAJ NAYARIIINepal and Bhutan in 2004 • MICHAEL HUTTIIIAfghanistan in 2004 • LARRY P. G OODSONIIISri Lanka in 2004 • NEIL DEVOTTAIIIPakistan in 2004 • CHARLES H. KENNEDYIIIBangla- desh in 2004 • ALI RIAZ IIIndonesia in 2004 • R. WILLIAM LIDDLE AND SAIFUL MUJANIIIIThe Philippines in 2004 • TEMARIO C. RIVERAIIICambodia in 2004 • MELANIE BERESFORDII Singapore in 2004 • GARRY RODANIIIVietnam in 2004 • ADAM FFORDEIIIMalaysia in 2004 • BRIDGET WELSHIIILaos in 2004 • DEAN FORBES AND CECILE CUTLERIIIThailand in 2004 • ROBERT B. ALBRITTONIIIMyan- mar in 2004 • KYAW YIN HLAINGIIIBrunei in 2004 • A. V. M. HORTONIIIEast Timor in 2004 • JAMES COTTONIIIPapua New Guinea in 2004 • JAMES CHINII INDONESIA IN 2004 The Rise of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono R. William Liddle and Saiful Mujani Abstract Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a retired army officer, became Indonesia’s first directly elected president, defeating incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri in a landslide. Key positions in economic ministries were awarded both to pro-market and protectionist groups. A suicide bomb killed nine people and wounded nearly 200, intensifying the nation’s search for al-Qaeda-linked terrorists. Politics The 2004 Election Cycle Indonesians successfully conducted three general elec- tions in 2004. The first, held on April 5, simultaneously chose members of the national Parliament (called the People’s Representative Council, Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat); the new Senate-like Regional Representative Council (Dewan Perwakilan Daerah); and representatives for all provincial, district, and municipality-level legislatures throughout the country. The 2004 electorate was the most fragmented in Indonesian history. Eleven parties won 2% or more of the popular vote for Parliament, a feat accomplished by only five parties in the 1999 election.1 The Functional Groups Party (Partai Golongan Karya, Golkar), the former state party during Suharto’s New Order R. William Liddle is Professor of Political Science at Ohio State Univer- sity, Columbus, Ohio, U.S.A. Email: Ͻ[email protected]Ͼ. Saiful Mujani is Director of Research, Freedom Institute, and Lecturer in Political Science, Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University, Jakarta. Email: Ͻ[email protected]Ͼ. 1. Election figures for 2004 are from the National Election Commission (KPU, Komisi Pemi- lihan Umum), online at Ͻhttp://www.kpu.go.id/suara/hasilsuara_dpr_sah.phpϾ. Asian Survey, Vol. 45, Issue 1, pp. 119–126, ISSN 0004-4687, electronic ISSN 1533-838X. © 2005 by The Regents of the University of California. All rights reserved. Please direct all requests for permission to photocopy or reproduce article content through the University of California Press’s Rights and Permissions website, at http://www.ucpress.edu/journals/rights.htm. 119 120 ASIAN SURVEY, VOL. XLV, NO. 1, JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2005 table 1 Major Party Vote in April 5, 2004, Indonesian Elections Popular Vote Pancasila/ Parties (%) Islamist Partai Golkar (Functional Groups Party) 21.6 PS PDI-P (Indonesian Democracy Party-Struggle) 18.5 PS PKB (National Awakening Party) 10.6 PS PPP (Development Unity Party) 8.2 IS Partai Demokrat (Democratic Party) 7.5 PS PKS (Prosperous Justice Party) 7.3 IS PAN (National Mandate Party) 6.4 PS PBB (Crescent Moon and Star Party) 2.6 IS Other 17.3 Total 100.0 SOURCE: Komisi Pemilihan Umum (National Election Commission), Ͻhttp://www.kpu.go.id/ suara/hasilsuara_dpr_sah.phpϾ, May 5, 2004. era (1966–98), came in first with 21.6% of the vote, almost exactly the same percentage it had received in 1999. Golkar narrowly bested incumbent Presi- dent Megawati Sukarnoputri’s Indonesian Democracy Party-Struggle (Partai Demokrasi Indonesia-Perjuangan, PDI-P), which plunged from 33.7% of the vote in 1999 to 18.5% this year. In both 1999 and 2004, Golkar’s support spread throughout the archipelago, making it more representative of the Outer Islands, while PDI-P’s vote con- centrated in the predominantly ethnic Javanese provinces of Yogyakarta, Cen- tral, and East Java. Both Golkar and PDI-P are secular nationalist parties, that is, in formal terms, adherents to Pancasila, the five principles of state doctrine enunciated by Indonesia’s national founding father Sukarno in 1945.2 Most In- donesian parties have adopted either Pancasila or Islam (the latter being the re- ligion of 88% of Indonesians, according to the 2000 census) as their basic principle (see Table 1, which lists the major parties in the 2004 election and their basic principles). The relatively high vote totals for the Democratic Party (Partai Demokrat) and the Prosperous Justice Party (Partai Keadilan Sejahtera, PKS), 7.5% and 7.3%, respectively, surprised many observers. Partai Demokrat is new, founded in 2001 as a presidential campaign vehicle for General (re- tired) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, then coordinating minister for political and 2. The principles are belief in God, humanitarianism, national unity, democracy, and social jus- tice. The first principle is interpreted broadly by secular nationalists to mean acceptance of and equal treatment for all the major religious traditions present in Indonesia, including Islam, Protes- tantism, Catholicism, Hinduism, and Confucianism. INDONESIA IN 2004 121 security affairs in the Megawati government. Partai Demokrat has no other prominent members and only a skeletal organization nationwide. Like Golkar and PDI-P, it adheres to Pancasila. PKS is the new name of the Justice Party (Partai Keadilan, PK), which had won only 1.4% of the vote in 1999. PKS is in several ways the opposite of Par- tai Demokrat, being Islamist and rooted in the powerful tarbiyah (education, in the sense of Muslim consciousness-raising) movement seen in secular state universities. Moreover, PKS is the best organized of all Indonesian parties, with 400,000 carefully selected and well-trained cadres, and has cultivated an image of collective decision making in which no individual leader stands out. PKS was the only Islamist party to improve its position in 2004. This was probably because its campaign emphasized not an implementation of syariat (Islamic law) but the broadly popular theme of “clean and caring govern- ment,” in opposition to parties and leaders, both Islamist and secularist, widely perceived by voters to be corrupt and elitist. The largest Islamist party, Devel- opment Unity (Partai Persatuan Pembangunan, PPP), dropped its vote share from 10.7% in 1999 to 8.2% in 2004. Of all parties gaining more than 2% of the vote, the four Islamist parties together won 20.5%, while the seven pro- Pancasila parties won 68.8%. On July 5, five pairs of candidates, nominated by parties victorious in the parliamentary election, competed in the first direct presidential and vice presi- dential election ever held in Indonesia. The presidential candidates, in order of their first-round finish, were as follows: Partai Demokrat’s Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, 33.6%; PDI-P’s Megawati Sukarnoputri, 26.6%; Golkar’s Wiranto, former armed forces commander, 22.2%; Amien Rais of the National Mandate Party (Partai Amanat Nasional, PAN) and former head of the modernist Muslim organization Muhammadiyah, 14.7%; and PPP’s Hamzah Haz, the incumbent vice president, 3%. Of the five presidential candidates, only Haz represented an Islamist party. As no candidate received an absolute majority, a runoff election was held on September 20 between the top two tickets headed by Yudhoyono and Mega- wati. Yudhoyono won by a landslide, obtaining 60.6% of valid votes cast; he was inaugurated on October 20 to serve a five-year term as Indonesia’s sixth president. His vice president is Jusuf Kalla, formerly coordinating minister for people’s welfare in the Megawati government. In classic ticket-balancing style, Kalla’s background and credentials—civilian, orthodox Muslim, businessman from South Sulawesi—complement those of Yudhoyono—retired military, ethnic Javanese from East Java, and syncretist Muslim. Yudhoyono’s victory was especially impressive because it was broadly based both across the party spectrum and demographically. According to a survey conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute (Lembaga Survei Indo- nesia, LSI) after the second round, the Yudhoyono-Kalla team won 84.7% of 122 ASIAN SURVEY, VOL. XLV, NO. 1, JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2005 the voters who had chosen Golkar in the April parliamentary election.3 This was despite the fact that the national Golkar leadership allied with PDI-P, in a newly formed National Coalition (Koalisi Kebangsaan), to support Megawati in the second round. Yudhoyono-Kalla also won 79.5% of the voters for the National Awakening Party (Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa, PKB), founded by former President Abdur- rahman Wahid (1999–2001) and supported by many members of the Awaken- ing of Traditional Religious Scholars and Teachers (Nahdlatul Ulama, NU), Indonesia’s largest association of traditionalist Muslims. As organizations, neither PKB nor NU backed Yudhoyono. Amien Rais’s PAN, a pro-Pancasila party identified with Muhammadiyah, gave Yudhoyono-Kalla 84.3% of its voters, and the Islamist PKS gave them 89.2%. Both of these parties did for- mally support Yudhoyono in the second round. Hamzah Haz’s Islamist PPP joined the pro-Megawati National Coalition, but 78.8% of its voters nonethe- less chose Yudhoyono-Kalla. Even 32.6% of PDI-P voters chose Yudhoyono in preference to their own leader. Demographically, there was little distance between Yudhoyono and Mega- wati voters along the variables of rural/urban, region of residence, age, educa- tion, and employment differences.