INDUSTRY MARKET RESEARCH FOR BUSINESS LEADERS, STRATEGISTS, DECISION MAKERS NEW Industry forecasts for 2011 & 2016 Industry Studies ■ Custom Research ■ Focus Reports Motorcycles in China Study # 2320 May 2008 $5100 models. Demand for electric motorcycles Demand in China to grow Motorcycle Demand in China 13.9% yearly through 2011 powered by li-poly batteries will outpace (44.4 million units, 2011) lead-acid powered motorcycles in the The market for motorcycles in China is forecast period, and become the dominant Electric projected to increase at an annual rate of Motorcycles battery type in the Chinese market. 13.9 percent, reaching 44.4 million units 64% Advances will be driven by improve- by 2011. Strong growth in the Chinese ments in li-poly technology, which will motorcycle market will be primarily enable these batteries to be used in more driven by rapidly increasing sales of powerful applications. High tech electric electric motorcycles, which are signifi- motorcycle engines powered by hydrogen cantly cheaper than gas motorcycles and or zinc fuel cells are not expected to subject to lower levels of government achieve significant market penetration in regulation, making them popular choices China in the near-term due to a lack of among urban consumers as an upgrade to fuel cell reactant refueling infrastructure. traditional bicycles. At the same time Gas-Powered Motorcycles demand for traditional gas motorcycles 36% Recreation use is minimal will see steady growth, with sales especially strong in rural areas, benefiting Nearly all motorcycles purcased in China from rising income levels. are used by their owners for transporta- tion purposes. Advances will be spurred Gas motorcycle sales by demand for cost-effective vehicles in military and police segments and a both urban and rural areas. Although a to remain strong mediocre outlook in the transportation relatively small segment, demand for segment. Nevertheless, demand for Demand for gas motorcycles in China recreational and sport motorcycles will larger motorcycles will see robust growth will be driven primarily by increases in see fast growth going forward, driven by in the recreation and sport markets, rural income levels as well as ongoing rising personal income levels and greater although these two markets will remain demand for cheap forms of individual popularity of motorcycle activities among relatively small in the forecast period. transport across the country. Urban young people in China. Demand for motorcycle bans and other restrictions electric recreational motorcycles is also enforced by local governments will Electric motorcycles to being fueled by the emergence of electric ensure that the gas motorcycle market register stronger gains vehicle rentals in tourist spots. will remain focused on rural areas going Sales of electric engine motorcycles will forward. Motorcycles with engine Study coverage outpace gas motorcycles and become the displacements between 50cc and 249cc more dominant motorcycle segment in Motorcycles in China, a new Freedonia will continue to dominate demand China in 2011, due in large part to the industry study, is available for $5100. It through 2011, benefiting from their cost-effective and environmentally presents historical demand data for 1996, suitability for use in a wide range of rural friendly characteristics of these vehicles. 2001 and 2006 plus forecasts for 2011 applications. Smaller models will suffer Being a comparatively new model, and 2016 by product, market and region. from competition from electric motor- electric scooters and other more powerful In addition, this study considers market cycles, while market gains for larger machines dominate the electric market, environment factors, evaluates market machines are expected to be modest due due to their superior performance share and profiles 39 competitors. primarily to declining sales in the compared to other electric motorcycle Copyright 2008 The Freedonia Group, Inc. Visit our NEW and IMPROVED website at www.freedoniagroup.com NEW CHINA INDUSTRY STUDY WITH FORECASTS FOR 2011 & 2016 Motorcycles in China Recreation OVERVIEW TABLE OF CONTENTS Sport 1 China Motorcycle Statistics Other 2 Motorcycle Pricing Patterns in China 3 China Motorcycle Demand by Engine Type Introduction REGIONAL TRENDS Cht Motorcycle Demand by Engine Type in China General 4 Chinese Foreign Trade in Gas Motorcycles EXecUTive SUmmARY Regional Demographic & Economic Trends 5 Chinese Foreign Trade in Electric Motorcycles Population Patterns 6 World Gas Motorcycle Demand Economic Outlook Cht World Gas Motorcycle Demand by Region, 2006 MARKET EnvironmenT Motorcycle Trends General Regional Demand for Motorcycles GAS MOTORCYCLES Economic Overview Central-North 1 Gas Motorcycle Demand in China Demographic Overview Overview Cht Gas Motorcycle Demand by Displacement Population Motorcycle Demand in China, 2006 Urbanization Northeast Cht Motorcycle Demand by Model in China, 2006 Households Overview 2 Light Motorcycle Demand in China Currency Exchange Rates Motorcycle Demand Cht Light Gas Motorcycle Demand in China, 2006 Consumer Income and Expenditure Trends Central-East 3 Medium Motorcycle Demand in China Light Vehicle Market Trends Overview Cht Medium Gas Motorcycle Demand in China, 2006 Light Vehicle Supply & Demand Motorcycle Demand 4 Heavy Motorcycle Demand in China Light Vehicle Park Central-South Cht Heavy Gas Motorcycle Demand in China The Shift from Motorcycles to Automobiles Overview China’s Transition to Light Vehicle Dominance Motorcycle Demand Public Vehicle Service System ELECTRIC MOTORCYCLES Southwest 1 Electric Motorcycle Demand in China Environmental & Regulatory Factors Overview The Motorcycle Industry Five-Year Plan Cht Electric Motorcycle Demand by Model in China Motorcycle Demand Cht Electric Motorcycle Battery Use in China Motorcycle Emission Standards Northwest Gas Motorcycle Ban 2 Electric Bicycle Demand in China Overview Cht Electric Bicycle Demand in China Regulations for Electric Motorcycles Motorcycle Demand Motorcycle Safety 3 Electric Moped Demand in China Cht Electric Moped Demand in China Counterfeit INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 4 Electric Scooter & Other Demand in China General OVERVIEW Cht Electric Scooter & Other Demand in China Industry Composition Motorcycle Supply & Demand Market Share MARKETS Motorcycle Park Product Development & Manufacturing Pricing Trends 1 Motorcycle Demand by Market in China Marketing & Distribution Cht Motorcycle Demand by Market in China, 2006 Gas Motorcycle Acquisitions & Divestitures Electric Motorcycle 2 Transportation Motorcycle Demand in China Cooperative Agreements Cht Transportation Motorcycle Demand in China Technology Trends Foreign Participation in Chinese Market The Shift from 2-stroke to 4-stroke 3 Recreation Motorcycle Demand in China Cht Recreation Motorcycle Demand in China Electric and Hybrid Engines Company Profiles Foreign Trade & International Issues 4 Sport Motorcycle Demand in China Foreign Trade Cht Sport Motorcycle Demand in China Gas Motorcycles 5 Other Motorcycle Demand in China Electric Motorcycles Cht Other Motorcycle Demand in China LIST OF TABLES & CHARTS World Outlook for Gas Motorcycles REGIONAL TRENDS 1 Population of China by Region GAS MOTORCYCLES EXecUTive SUmmARY General 2 Gross Domestic Product of China by Region 1 Summary Table Gas Motorcycle Engine Displacements 3 Motorcycle Demand by Region in China Gas Motorcycle Models Cht Motorcycle Demand in China by Region, 2006 Cruiser MARKET EnvironmenT 4 Central-North Region of China: Motorcycle Demand Scooter 1 Gross Domestic Product of China Cht Central-North Region of China Underbone 2 Population of China 5 Northeast Region of China: Motorcycle Demand Trike & Sidecar Cht Population of China by Age Cht Northeast Region of China Light Motorcycles 3 Households in China by Region 6 Central-East Region of China: Motorcycle Demand Medium Motorcycles 4 Chinese Currency Exchange Rates, 1996-2006 Cht Central-East Region of China Heavy Motorcycles Cht Chinese Currency Exchange Rates, 1996-2006 7 Central-South Region of China: 5 Consumer Income & Expenditure Patterns in China Motorcycle Demand ELECTRIC MOTORCYCLES 6 China Light Vehicle Statistics Cht Central-South Region of China Cht Light Vehicle Density Comparison, 2006 8 Southwest Region of China: Motorcycle Demand General Cht Ratio of Motorcycle to Passenger Car Sales Cht Southwest Region of China Electric Motorcycle Demand by Model in Japan, 1950 to 2000 9 Northwest Region of China: Motorcycle Demand Electric Motorcycle Batteries Cht Relationship of GDP per Capita to Relative Cht Northwest Region of China Lead-Acid Battery Motorcycle Sales Dominance in Japan, Lithium Polymer Battery 1950 to 1970 Fuel Cell INDUSTRY STRUCTURE Cht Comparison of GDP per Capita Electric Bicycles 1 Revenue Data: Selected Motorcycle & Motorcycle Dominance Mopeds Companies, 2006 Cht China’s Transition from Motorcycles Scooters and Others Cht Motorcycle Share by Company in China, 2006 to Light Vehicles, 1996-2006 Cht Gas Motorcycle Share by Company in China, 2006 7 China Bus Statistics MARKETS Cht Electric Motorcycle Share by Company Cht Emissions Standards Rollout in China in China, 2006 General 2 Selected Cooperative Agreements Transportation INDUSTRY STUDIES ■ CUSTOM RESEARCH ■ FOCUS REPORTS INDUSTRY MARKET RESEARCH: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE FOR BUSINESS LEADERS, STRATEGISTS, DECISION MAKERS MARKETS Transportation The transportation market covers motorcycles used for individual or business transportation, including in commuting, delivery, taxi and other