COMPREHENSIVE ENCIRCLEMENT: THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY’S STRATEGY IN XINJIANG GARTH FALLON A thesis submitted for the degree of Master of Philosophy School of Humanities and Social Sciences International and Political Studies July 2018 1 THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Thesis/Dissertation Sheet Surname or Family name: FALLON First name: Garth Other name/s: Nil Abbreviation for degree as given in the University calendar: MPhil School: Humanitiesand Social Sciences Faculty: UNSW Canberraat ADFA Title: Comprehensive encirclement: the Chinese Communist Party's strategy in Xinjiang Abstract 350 words maximum: (PLEASETYPE) This thesis argues that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has a strategy for securing Xinjiang - its far-flung predominantly Muslim most north-western province - through a planned program of Sinicisation. Securing Xinjiang would turna weakly defended 'back door' to China into a strategic strongpointfrom which Beijing canproject influence into Central Asia. The CCP's strategy is to comprehensively encircle Xinjiang with Han people and institutions, a Han­ dominated economy, and supporting infrastructure emanatingfrom inner China A successful program of Sinicisation would transform Xinjiang from a Turkic-language-speaking, largely Muslim, physically remote, economically under-developed region- one that is vulnerable to separation from the PRC - into one that will be substantially more culturally similar to, and physically connected with, the traditional Han-dominated heartland of inner China. Once achieved, complete Sinicisation would mean Xinjiang would be extremely difficult to separate from China. In Xinjiang, the CCP enacts policies in support of Sinication across all areas of statecraft. This thesis categorises these activities across three dimensions: the economic and demographic dimension, the political and cultural dimension, and the security and international cooperationdimension. The Party's strategy relies on the interaction of all these measures to Sinicise Xinjiang. - The economic and demographic dimension does the most important and tangible work in Sinicising Xinjiang. Since 1949, millions of Han people have migrated to Xinjiang. By their presence in large numbers and their industrious development of the region, the Han people have made their culture, the Chinese language and the PRC's economy, powerful Sinicising forcesin the region. On a political and cultural level, the strategy involves giving the appearance of pennitting Uyghur autonomy that cultivates a harmonious, multi-ethnic region that respectscultural differences, while actually denying Uyghur culturethe possibility of growing - or even maintaining its current status. And finally, the brutal security measures in Xinjiang prevent Uyghur separatists from cohering into a largeand effective movement. This buys time for the other dimensions of the Sinicisation strategy to work. Thisthesis concludesthat the CCP's strategy is effectiveand if it continues to be pursued, is likely to eventually succeed. Once achieved, successful Sinicisation would mean thatculturally, economically,politically, and to the greatest extent practicable in terms of transportation and communication infrastructure, Xinjiang would be extremely difficult to s arate from China. U hur and other Turkic Jeswould become culturall Chinese. Declaration relating to disposition of project thesis/dissertation I hereby grant to the University of New �ou� W�les ?r i� agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or in part in the University hbranes in all forms of media, now or here after known,subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968, I retain all prope� righ�, su� as patent rights. 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ORIGINALITYSTATEMENT to the best of my it I hereby declare that this submission i� my own w?rk and knowledge_ contains no materials previously published or wntten by another person, or sub�tantial pro ortions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma P 1 · · · w here d uekn c ow 1e dgement · ma e m· at UNSW or any other educationa mstltutlon, except � 1s d · to the research by others, with whom I have worked at h th s Any contribution made acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that th intellectual �S; �:· elsewhere, is explicitly � of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from content of thi s thesis is the product · · · · · · · conception or m sty 1e, presentation and 1mgu1stic expression others m. th e pro,iect'sJ design and is acknowledged. Signed: ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements and dedication v Abbreviations vi Figures Figure 1: A deduced model of the CCP’s Strategy in Xinjiang 11 Figure 2: Geography of Xinjiang with PRC inset 36 Figure 3: Ethnic Composition in Xinjiang 1949 and 1995 94 Figure 4: Wayne’s depiction 158 Table Table 1: Key incidents of Uyghur Separatist Violence, 1990 to 2015 67-9 Chapter 1 – Introduction 1 1.1 Aim 1 1.2 Significance 1 1.3 Central Argument 6 1.4 Contribution to this field of study 16 1.5 Literature review 17 1.6 Thesis outline and structure 31 Chapter 2 – Historical background 35 2.1 Introduction 35 2.2 Geography 36 2.3 Ancient times: prehistory until the rise of the Qing Dynasty 39 2.4 Medieval times: Xinjiang under the Qing Dynasty, 1644-1911 46 2.5 Modern times: 1911 to present 55 2.6 Uyghur separatism and the conflict in Xinjiang since 1949 65 2.7 Conclusion 77 Chapter 3 – The economic and demographic dimension 78 3.1 Introduction 78 3.2 Motives related to the economic and demographic dimension 80 3.3 Characteristics of the economic and demographic dimension 87 3.4 Consequences economic and demographic dimension 93 3.5 Conclusion 106 Chapter 4 – The political and cultural dimension 108 4.1 Introduction 108 4.2 Motives related to the political and cultural dimension 109 4.3 Characteristics of the political and cultural dimension 119 4.4 Consequences of the political and cultural dimension 136 4.5 Conclusion 146 ! iii! Chapter 5 – The security and international cooperation dimension 148 5.1 Introduction 148 5.2 Motives related to the security and international cooperation dimension 149 5.3 Characteristics of the security and international cooperation dimension 157 5.4 Changes over time in the security and international cooperation dimension 173 5.5 Consequences of the security and international cooperation dimension 177 5.6 Conclusion 183 Chapter 6 – Conclusion 187 Bibliography 195 Books 195 Articles 197 ! iv! ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to acknowledge the support of my beloved wife, ‘Ya’, and daughters, Nicola, Amelia and Margaret. The girls gave up plenty of Papa-time to allow me to complete this endeavour. Without their understanding and forbearance this project would not have succeeded. I wish to thank my thesis advisor, Dr Jian Zhang. He showed me the way, kept me on track and helped me back on my feet when I needed it. This project had two false starts, but he kept faith in me and encouraged me to persevere. I also wish to thank Mrs Hilda Mills for pointing me the right way along the path of Chinese studies. Finally, I wish to thank the Australian taxpayer for funding this undertaking through the Research Training Program. DEDICATION This paper is dedicated to the memory of David A. Lavercombe, Esq. ! v! ABBREVIATIONS CCP Chinese Communist Party ETIM East Turkistan Islamic Movement ETLO East Turkistan Liberation Organisation ETR East Turkistan Republic OBOR One Belt One Road Initiative ODWC Open and Develop the West Campaign PAP People’s Armed Police PLA People’s Liberation Army PRC People’s Republic of China RATS Regional Anti-terrorism Structure SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Second ETR Second East Turkistan Republic SOE State Owned Enterprise XPCC Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps XUAR Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region ! vi! Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Aim This thesis aims to examine the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) strategy in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR),1 including how the situation in present day Xinjiang came about, and how the CCP views the challenges involved in securing the region. This thesis also evaluates the effectiveness of the strategy and its prospects for success.