UNDERSTANDING THE NEXUS BETWEEN THE POLITICS OF PATRONAGE AND POLITICAL REPRESSION IN NORTH AFRICAN RENTIER STATES: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE ALGERIAN AND EGYPTIAN GOVERNMENTS’ APPROACHES TO THE 2011 ARAB SPRING. A dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in International Relations (CW & RR) at The University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg by Thabane Nhlengethwa Under the supervision of Professor Gilbert Khadiagala. 15 February 2018 ABSTRACT In a bid to fathom the prevalence of authoritarian rule in Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) states, Iranian economist, Hossein Mahdavy, postulated the Rentier State Theory (RST) in 1970. The theory attributed the endurance of autocracy, in the region, to the vast availability of resource rents - which are purportedly used by the rentier states to preserve their dictatorial rule. The RST’s cogency would later find profounder cognitive consolidation in Michael Ross’s critically acclaimed journal article, “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?”, wherein he made compelling extrapolations on the causal mechanisms of the theory by applying a triad of effects: the ‘rentier’, ‘taxation’, and ‘modernisation’ effects. Leveraging Mahdavy and Ross’s inferrences as a point of departure, the study investigates why the 2011 Arab Spring undermined the fundamental premises of the RST by forcing regime change, and in some cases, democratic reforms in North Africa. A comparative case study analysis of how two North African Rentier States, Algeria and Egypt, confronted the 2011 popular uprisings is conducted in order to underscore the value and importance of development-orientated resource rents redistribution to regime survival. Key words: Arab Spring; Rentier State Theory; International Comparative Politics; Natural Resource Curse Theory; African Political Economy; Political Conflict and; International Development Studies. Page | i DECLARATION I declare that this research report is my own unaided work. It is submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Masters of Arts (in the field of International Relations) at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. It has not been submitted before for any degree or examination at any other university. _______________________ THABANE NHLENGETHWA 15 FEBRUARY 2018 Page | ii DEDICATION I humbly dedicate this earnest body of work to three important women in my life: Mrs Keneioe Nhlengethwa My beautiful, supportive and loving wife. Your companionship, over the best part of the last decade, is an embodiment of the veritable maxim, “home is not a place, it’s a feeling”. You are my home and home is where my heart shall always be; I love you dearly. And; Ms Melokuhle Nhlengethwa My gorgeous, endearing, and cheerful daughter. Your precious smiles and infectious giggles are the panacea to all of my tribulations and they are what keep me going in the most difficult of times. Daddy loves you, my little dolphin. And; Ms Tina Nhlengethwa My generous, ever-present and self-sacrificing mother. Thank you for raising me to the best of your abilities and for never capitulating even when there was no light at the end of the proverbial tunnel. Page | iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to take this opportunity to extend my most sincere gratitude to the Jan Smuts Professor of International Relations and Head of Department, Professor Gilbert Khadiagala, for not only believing in my visions for this research paper, but for also demonstrating immense foresight, sagacity and patience throughout the epistemic undertaking. Professor Khadiagala’s exceptional supervision afforded me ample leeway to express my ideas independently and cogently. Thank you most abundantly, Sir. Special thanks is reserved for my employer, the National Department of Transport of the Republic of South Africa, for presenting me with the invaluable opportunity to pursue my academic dreams. By way of expressing my immense gratitude to the Department for granting me a full academic bursary, I pledge to repay the faith shown in me by expending the knowledge and skills attained from my academic endeavours to serve the people of South Africa to the best of my abilities; as a model civil servant should. Last, but not least, thank you to my wife Keneioe and my daughter Melokuhle for their unwavering support and clemency in the wake of my innumerable absences that were occassioned by my burning desire to work diligently on this highly demanding research paper. Page | iv LIST OF ACRONYMS AZN AZERBAIJANI MANAT FIFA FEDERATION OF INTERNATIONAL FOOTBALL ASSOCIATIONS GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GDP PPP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PURCHASING POWER PARITY ISIL ISLAMIC STATE AND THE LEVANT LPI LEGATUM PROSPERITY INDEX MMD MILLS’ METHOD OF DIFFERENCE MENA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA NDP NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY NLF NATIONAL LIBERATION FRONT OPEC ORGANISATION OF THE PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES RCC REVOLUTIONARY COMMAND COUNCIL RST RENTIER STATE THEORY UNDHI UNITED NATIONS HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX US$ UNITED STATES DOLLAR SPI SOCIAL PROGRESSION INDEX WWII WORLD WAR TWO Page | v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 ................................................................................................................................................. 10 Figure 2 ................................................................................................................................................. 13 Figure 3 ................................................................................................................................................. 23 Figure 4 ................................................................................................................................................. 24 Figure 5 ................................................................................................................................................. 24 Figure 6 ................................................................................................................................................. 25 Figure 7 ................................................................................................................................................. 28 Figure 8 ................................................................................................................................................. 36 Figure 9 ................................................................................................................................................. 39 Figure 10 ............................................................................................................................................... 41 Figure 11 ............................................................................................................................................... 42 Figure 12 ............................................................................................................................................... 43 Figure 13 ............................................................................................................................................... 45 Figure 14 ............................................................................................................................................... 45 Figure 15 ............................................................................................................................................... 48 Figure 16 ............................................................................................................................................... 49 Figure 17 ............................................................................................................................................... 52 Figure 18 ............................................................................................................................................... 53 Figure 19 ............................................................................................................................................... 57 Figure 20 ............................................................................................................................................... 60 Page | vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................................... i. DECLARATION.............................................................................................................................. ii. DEDICATION.................................................................................................................................. iii. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................ iv. LIST OF ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................... v. LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................................... vi. CHAPTER ONE 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 1. 1.1. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE OF THE STUDY ............................................. 2. 1.2. THE PROBLEM STATEMENT .................................................................................... 4. 1.3. THE PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY .............................................