SmartGrowth: Development Trends Report 2008 Western Bay of Plenty District Tauranga City 2007 – 2008 Prepared by: Resource Management Team Policy & Planning Group Western Bay of Plenty District Council Environmental Policy Division City Directions Group Tauranga City Council October 2008 1 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary 5 Introduction 7 Residential and Rural Land Trends 8 NEW DWELLINGS COMPLETED 8 NEW DWELLING CONSENTS ISSUED 11 NEW LOTS PROPOSED AND CREATED 14 COMPARISON WITH SMARTGROWTH PROJECTIONS 17 AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL SECTION SIZES 20 RESIDENTIAL GROWTH SEQUENCING 21 GROWTH RATES –DWELLINGS COMPLETED 22 TOTAL DWELLINGS ESTIMATE 23 OCCUPIED/UNOCCUPIED DWELLING RATIO 24 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION 26 Business Land Trends 28 ZONED BUSINESS LAND 28 AVAILABILITY AND UPTAKE RATES 31 BUSINESS LAND/POPULATION RATIO 32 INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL BUILDING CONSENTS ISSUED 33 Appendix 1 34 EXPLANATION OF DEVELOPMENT TERMS 34 SUBDIVISION PROCESS 34 BUILDING CONSENT AND CODE OF COMPLIANCE ISSUE FOR DWELLINGS 35 3 RESIDENTIAL GROWTH AREAS 35 VACANT LAND 36 Appendix 2 38 SMARTGROWTH SUB-REGIONAL MAP 38 Appendix 3 39 WESTERN BAY OF PLENTY DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT MAP 39 TAURANGA CITY DEVELOPMENT MAP 40 Appendix 4 41 WESTERN BAY OF PLENTY DISTRICT CENSUS AREA UNIT MAP 41 TAURANGA CITY CENSUS AREA UNIT MAP 42 Appendix 5 43 TAURANGA CITY COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS ZONED AREAS 43 Appendix 6 44 WESTERN BAY OF PLENTY DISTRICT STAGE 1 AREAS FOR URBAN GROWTH AREA SEQUENCING 44 4 Executive Summary The level of construction activity in the Western Bay of Plenty subregion has declined over the last 12 months, reflecting a slow down in the housing market. The rate of decline is significantly higher than observed during the previous 24 months. Building consents issued for new dwellings fell by 22% over the subregion compared to the previous year (Tauranga City -24%, Western Bay of Plenty District -19%). In Tauranga City’s urban growth areas (UGA’s), building activity has increased in Pyes Pa, but decreased in all other UGA’s, refer to Table 1. These results reveal a shift from the trend observed in 2006/2007 when Bethlehem was the only UGA to record an increase in building activity. Generally, Greenfield areas remain popular, accounting for 69% of new dwellings completed and 72% of new dwelling consents issued for Tauranga City in 2007/2008. Established parts of Tauranga (non- UGA’s) continue to accommodate a significant proportion of household growth. Trends in housing development in the Western Bay of Plenty District during the last 12 months have changed with the number of dwelling consents issued in their UGA’s exceeding the level of activity in rural areas, but both were down in total numbers on 2006/2007. New dwellings consents fell in all rural areas over this time: refer to Table 2. Construction in UGA’s has increased in Omokoroa and Other Urban Areas during 2007/2008. Overall, across the subregion subdivision activity declined over the last 12 months. The number of additional lots created at 224 stage has decreased by 35% in the Western Bay of Plenty District and has decreased by 27% in Tauranga City compared to 2006/2007. In both territorial authorities the majority of subdivision occurred in Greenfield areas, with 72% of additional lots created in the UGA’s of Tauranga City. The UGA showing the largest demand for subdivision development in the Western Bay of Plenty District was Omokoroa; which experienced a 160% increase in the number of additional lots created during the last 12 months. For Tauranga City, Welcome Bay and Papamoa which both experienced a 25% increase over the same period. The Papamoa urban growth area has the largest greenfield design capacity in Tauranga City, and approximately 19% of this capacity remains. Welcome Bay, Ohauiti and Pyes Pa, urban growth areas have the least remaining number of years of planned supply. Pyes Pa West is the most recently established urban growth area, and while only 32 new dwellings have been completed as at June 2008, 89 dwelling consents had been issued and 423 lots had reached the final approval stage under Section 224 of the Resource Management Act 1991 (RMA). Wairakei-Papamoa East (Part 1) urban growth area is in the process of being rezoned to provide for additional growth capacity, so it is not yet reflected in this monitoring. In the Western Bay of Plenty District, Waihi Beach UGA has the largest greenfield design capacity and 41% of this capacity remains. Omokoroa is the UGA with the largest percentage capacity remaining with 53%. Katikati has both the most limited percentage capacity remaining (27%) and the least theoretical remaining number of year’s supply (11). Subdivision development in stage 1 areas of the Western Bay of Plenty District’s UGA’s has been limited to date except for Katikati which is at 36% utilisation. The others are all below 20% capacity utilised in terms of the number of lots that have reached final approval stage under Section 224 of the RMA. In policy terms these current levels are significantly below the staging approach in the Regional Policy Statement (Proposed Plan Change 2) before stage 2 areas are released for development. A comparison of SmartGrowth projected dwelling growth with actual growth at the Western Bay of Plenty sub-regional level has been done. This indicates that the number of dwellings completed and new lots created remains above the number of new dwellings projected to June 2008 (+5% and +12% respectively), while dwelling consents issued fell 6% below projections. At the local authority level variance from this trend was evident with dwelling consents issued in Western Bay of Plenty District remaining above, while new lots created in Tauranga City falling below, the number of new dwellings projected. 5 At the time of the 2006 Census 69% of the population of Tauranga City lived within infill areas while 58% of the population of the Western Bay of Plenty District resided within rural areas. Urban Greenfield areas accommodated 30% of the population of Tauranga City at 2006 Census, and 1% of the Western Bay of Plenty District population due to the limited development of the District’s stage 1 Greenfield areas. The number of building consents issued for new industrial and commercial buildings decreased within Tauranga City compared to 2006/2007. They remained unchanged within the Western Bay of Plenty District over this time. At present there is 86m2 of industrial land per resident and 20m2 of commercial land per resident in the subregion, reflecting the different density scale and costs associated with business activities in each zone. Vacant industrial land is currently available at Te Maunga, Mount Maunganui, Tauriko, Sulphur Point, Greerton, Te Puna, Katikati, Te Puke and Rangiuru. Future industrial employment areas have been identified at Wairakei and Te Tumu in Tauranga City, and for Katikati, Omokoroa and Te Puke in the Western Bay of Plenty District. Vacant commercial land remains at Pyes Pa West/Tauriko and Papamoa in Tauranga City. Additional commercial areas are planned for Wairakei, Te Tumu, Waihi Beach and Omokoroa in the long term. Table 1. Trends Summary – Tauranga City – 2007/2008 Compared to 2006/2007 Area Dwellings Completed Dwellings Consented New Lots Created Urban Growth Area Bethlehem ↓ ↓ ↓ Urban Growth Area Pyes Pa ↑ ↑ ↓ Urban Growth Area Ohauiti ↓ ↓ ↓ Urban Growth Area Welcome Bay ↓ ↓ ↑ Urban Growth Area Papamoa ↓ ↓ ↑ Existing Urban Areas (infill) ↓ ↓ ↓ Rural Areas ↓ ↓ ↑ Table 2. Trends Summary – Western Bay of Plenty District – 2007/2008 Compared to 2006/2007 Area Dwellings Completed Dwellings Consented New Lots Created Urban Growth Area Waihi Beach ↓ ↓ ↓ Urban Growth Area Katikati ↓ ↓ ↓ Urban Growth Area Omokoroa ↓ ↑ ↑ Urban Growth Area Te Puke ↑ ↓ ↓ Urban Growth Area Other Urban Areas ↓ ↑ ↓ Rural Areas Waihi Beach & Katikati wards ↓ ↓ ↑ Rural Areas Te Puna / Minden ↓ ↓ ↓ Rural Areas Kaimai / Ohauiti-Ngapeke ↑ ↓ ↓ Rural Areas Maketu & Te Puke wards ↔ ↓ ↑ 6 Introduction Monitoring development trends in the Western Bay of Plenty District and Tauranga City assists both Councils in understanding the changing patterns of development in the sub-region. These statistics are collected as part of Councils core function and aim to fulfill part of Section 35 of the Resource Management Act 1991 that states Councils have a “duty to gather information, monitor and keep records”. This is the eighth year that development trends have been monitored for the Western Bay of Plenty sub-region. From 2007, the report has been expanded to incorporate measures related to development as required by the Regional Policy Statement (RPS) Proposed Plan Change 2, and the SmartGrowth Strategy1. The RPS requires annual reviews to be undertaken to monitor, assess and report on population distribution, dwelling yields, zoned business land, and the proportion of potential residential allotments approved. SmartGrowth requires uptake rates and land availability for both residential and business land, permanent versus holiday residences, and rural subdivision to be monitored. Additionally comparison of actual growth against projected SmartGrowth dwelling growth is reported on. To complement these new indicators and in order to continue the data time series, a number of other development trend statistics are monitored in this report. These include analysis of buildings constructed, particularly consents issued for new dwellings and commercial/industrial buildings. Chart 1 Comment: Over the last 12 months the total number of dwelling consents issued in the subregion has declined sharply by 22%. Within the subregion a decline was recorded for Tauranga City with 24% fewer dwelling consents issued during the last financial year and a decline of 19% for dwelling consents issued in the Western Bay of Plenty District. 1 See Section 17A.4(xi) of ‘Proposed Change No.2 to the Bay of Plenty Regional Policy Statement (Growth Management), 7 November 2006’, and Section 7.5.4.1 of “SmartGrowth, The 50 Year Plan, May 2007”.