External risks impacting on the scuba diving industry in the East African Marine Ecoregion by Dimitri Dimopoulos submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF COMMERCE in the subject TOURISM MANAGEMENT at the UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AFRICA SUPERVISOR: Ms D QUEIROS CO-SUPERVISOR: PROF. C VAN ZYL JANUARY 2018 ABSTRACT Scuba diving is a popular marine recreational activity along the eastern and southern coast of Africa. This region is characterised as the East African Marine Ecoregion (EAME) and is known for its richness in marine fauna and flora, including some of the Indian Ocean‟s most diverse and abundant coral reef ecosystems, making it a popular destination for scuba divers. The future of the scuba diving industry has come under threat as a result of environmental, social, political and economic impacts, and there is a need to better understand how these external risks impact on scuba diving tourism businesses in the EAME. Empirical evidence suggests that external risks, both international and domestic, have an effect on the tourism industry as a whole. However, limited research has been conducted on the impact of such external risks on the dive tourism industry specifically. Existing research has also focused extensively on environmental risks rather than on how external risks of a political, economic and social nature affect dive operator sustainability in the EAME. Most studies have also focused on the demand side (divers) as opposed to the supply side (dive operators). In addition, as dive tourists have greater flexibility to change their destination should risks arise, this threatens the success of dive operators in higher risk areas. To address these problems, the primary objective of the research undertaken sought to comprehensively identify the impact of external risks (environmental, economic, social and political) on dive operators in four countries within the EAME from a supply-side perspective. In order to achieve the primary objective, the following secondary objectives were achieved: 1. Identified scuba diving tourism operators in the EAME and their scope of operation. 2. Determined the external risks most relevant to dive operators in the EAME and assessed their level of impact. 3. Compared the individual external risks experienced by each of the countries in the EAME (Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique and South Africa) using a cross-case analysis. 4. Assessed the perception of dive operators regarding whether external risks would influence a dive tourist‟s decision to travel to the dive operator‟s area of operation in the EAME i The study consisted of two phases. Phase 1 comprised structured interviews with a select group of dive operators to gain insight into the external risks most prevalent in the scuba diving industry, as well as to assist in developing a quantitative structured survey (Phase 2), which was subsequently completed by dive operators in Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique and South Africa. Data was imported into SPSS for quantitative statistical analysis. From the primary data collected, the major findings from this study determined that current economic and political risks have the greatest impact on dive operators in the EAME, and this trend is expected to continue. Environmental degradation of coral reefs, while not seen as a threat at present, constitutes a key threat for the near future. The greatest influences expressed in terms of risk categories impacting on dive tourism are domestic economic risks, international economic risks, domestic political risks and international political risks. A cross-case analysis conducted on the four countries concluded that external risks have varying effects within the different countries. Finally, the results indicated that external risks significantly influence a dive tourist‟s decision to travel to the EAME. By identifying and assessing the external risks that have an impact on dive operators in the EAME, this research contributes to knowledge on the dive tourism industry in the EAME, as well as dive tourism further afield and the wider field of tourism management. The study‟s findings create awareness of the effect that external risks have on dive operators in the region. A conceptual framework was developed which encompasses external risks in the scuba diving industry. Risk radars, risk maps and colour-coded tables were further outputs this study which can assist businesses, society and economies in responding to current and future threats and crises in a more informative and intuitive way. This can be achieved by implementing risk management strategies to mitigate or reduce exposure to external risks; strengthening stakeholder involvement along the tourism value chain; and stressing the need for government involvement towards the protection of the environment and promotion of small business growth in the region. Future research can include a wider view of the marine tourism industry and other areas of the Blue Economy. Key terms: scuba diving, scuba diving tourism, scuba diving industry, marine tourism, coral reef tourism, sustainable tourism, East African Marine Ecoregion (EAME), external risks, international risks, domestic risks, environmental risks, economic risks, social risks, political risks ii Eksterne risiko's wat 'n impak het op die skubaduikbedryf in die Oos-Afrika Mariene Ekostreek OPSOMMING Skubaduik is 'n gewilde mariene ontspanningsaktiwiteit langs die oos- en suidkus van Afrika. Hierdie streek staan bekend as die Oos-Afrika Mariene Ekostreek (East African Marine Ecoregion, EAME) en is bekend vir sy rykheid aan mariene fauna en flora, insluitende sommige van die Indiese Oseaan se mees diverse en welige koraalrif-ekostelsels, wat dit 'n gewilde bestemming vir skubaduikers maak. Die toekoms van die skubaduikbedryf word bedreig weens die impak van omgewings-, sosiale, politieke en ekonomiese gebeure, en daar is 'n behoefte om beter te verstaan hoe hierdie eksterne risiko's skubaduiktoerisme-besighede in die EAME beïnvloed. Empiriese bewyse suggereer dat eksterne risiko's, internasionaal sowel as plaaslik, 'n invloed op die toerismebedryf as 'n geheel het. Beperkte navorsing is egter gedoen oor die impak van sulke eksterne risiko's op spesifiek die duiktoerisme-bedryf. Bestaande navorsing het ook uitvoerig gefokus op omgewingsrisiko's eerder as hoe eksterne risiko's van 'n politieke, ekonomiese en sosiale aard duik-operateur-volhoubaarheid in die EAME beïnvloed. Die meeste studies het ook gefokus op die aanvraagkant (duikers) in teenstelling met die aanbodkant (duik- operateurs). Verder, omdat duiktoeriste meer buigsaamheid het om hulle bestemming te verander indien risiko's voorkom, bedreig dit die sukses van duik-operateurs in hoë-risiko- gebiede. Om hierdie probleme te hanteer is die primêre doel van die navorsing wat gedoen is om op omvattende wyse die impak van eksterne risiko's (omgewing, ekonomies, sosiaal en polities) op duik-operateurs in vier lande in die EAME te identifiseer uit 'n aanbodkant-perspektief. Om die primêre doelwit te behaal, is die volgende sekondêre doelwitte bereik: 1. Skubaduik-toerisme-operateurs in die EAME en hulle operasionele omvang is geïdentifiseer. 2. Die eksterne risiko's wat die relevantste vir duik-operateurs in die EAME is, is bepaal en hulle vlak van impak is geassesseer. 3. Die individuele eksterne risiko's wat deur elkeen van die lande in die EAME (Kenia, Tanzanië, Mosambiek en Suid-Afrika) ervaar is, is vergelyk deur die gebruik van 'n iii kruisgeval-analise. 4. Die persepsie van duik-operateurs wat betref of eksterne risiko's 'n duiktoeris se besluit sal beïnvloed om na die duik-operateur se operasionele gebied in die EAME te reis, is geassesseer. Die studie het uit twee fases bestaan. Fase 1 het gestruktureerde onderhoude met 'n geselekteerde groep duik-operateurs behels om insig te kry in die eksterne risiko's wat die algemeenste in die skubaduikbedryf voorkom, en om te help om 'n kwantitatiewe gestruktureerde peiling (fase 2) te ontwikkel, wat gevolglik deur duik-operateurs in Kenia, Tanzanië, Mosambiek en Suid-Afrika voltooi is. Data is ingevoer in SPSS vir kwantitatiewe statistiese analise. Uit die primêre data wat ingesamel is, het die belangrikste bevindings van hierdie studie bepaal dat die huidige ekonomiese en politieke risiko's die grootste impak op duik-operateurs in die EAME het, en daar word verwag dat hierdie tendens sal voortduur. Die omgewingsagteruitgang van koraalriwwe, hoewel dit nie tans as 'n bedreiging beskou word nie, is 'n sleutelbedreiging vir die nabye toekoms. Die grootste invloede wat uitgedruk is as risiko-kategorieë wat 'n invloed op duiktoerisme het, is plaaslike ekonomiese risiko's, internasionale ekonomiese risiko's, plaaslike politieke risiko's en internasionale politieke risiko's. 'n Kruisgeval-analise wat op die vier lande uitgevoer is, het bevind dat eksterne risiko's wisselende uitwerkings binne die verskillende lande het. Laastens het die resultate aangedui dat eksterne risiko's 'n duiktoeris se besluit om na die EAME te reis, aansienlik beïnvloed. Deur die eksterne risiko's te identifiseer en te assesseer wat 'n impak op duik-operateurs in die EAME het, dra hierdie navorsing by tot kennis oor die duiktoerismebedryf in die EAME, asook duiktoerisme verder weg en die wyer veld van toerismebestuur. Die studie se bevindings skep 'n bewustheid van die uitwerking wat eksterne risiko's op duik-operateurs in die streek het. 'n Konseptuele raamwerk is ontwikkel wat eksterne risiko's in die skubaduikbedryf omvat. Risiko-radars, risiko-kaarte