Working Paper in Economics and Business Volume III No. 7/2013 APEC 2020: Multiplepaths to Attain the Bogor Goals Maddaremmeng A. Panennungi August 2013 APEC Study Centre University of Indonesia (ASC UI) Working Paper in Economics and Business Chief Editor: Hera Susanti Editors: Djoni Hartono, Beta Y. Gitaharie, Femmy Roeslan, Riatu M. Qibthiyyah Setting: Rus'an Nasrudin Copyright c 2013, Department of Economics Department of Economics Building 2nd Floor Depok West Java, Indonesia 16424 Telp. 021-78886252 Email: [email protected] Web: http://econ.fe.ui.ac.id/workingpage Contents Contents 3 List of Tables 4 List of Figures 5 1 Introduction 1 2 Interpretation of Bogor Goals2 3 Triple Paths in Attaining the Bogor Goals3 3.1 First Path: Pursuing Bogor Goals through Multilateral Liberalization.......3 3.2 Second Path: Peer Review of Action Plans toward Bogor Goals...........3 3.3 Third Path: Free Trade Area of Asia Pacific as the Pathway toward Bogor Goals?.4 4 Some Strategies in Attaining the Bogor Goals6 5 Conclusions and Recommendations7 6 References 7 List of Tables 1 OSAKA Action Agenda (Bogor Goals Implementation)...............9 2 Summary of Individual Action Plan Achievement by PSU (2012).......... 10 3 Matrix of FTAs/RTAs/BTAs, both Exisiting and Potential, in APEC Economies. 11 List of Figures 1 Average of APEC Economies in Overall Assessment of the Final Bogor Goals Based on Selected Indicators (1=Worst, 5=Best).......................5 APEC 2020: Multiplepaths to Attain the Bogor GoalsI Maddaremmeng A. Panennungia,∗ aAPEC Study Centre University of Indonesia (ASC UI), Jakarta, Indonesia Abstract This paper is aimed at providing description of the Bogor Goals and the detail pathways to attain iy by 2020. By using the literature survey, especially the original documents related to the Bogor Goals, some previous studies, and descriptive data, this paper find out some conclusions. First, it is not easy to measure the achievement of Bogor Goals because there is no specific definition which encourage multi-interpretations; second, in the beginning, the pathways to achieve the Bogor Goals have been arranged through multilateral liberalization (WTO) and Osaka Action Agenda (Individual and Collective Action Plans), however, there are new path that have been agreed later by APEC Economic Leaders in Yokohama (2010), namely FTAAP (Free Trade Area of Asia Pacific). Third, the current situation shows that there are many competing patterns toward FTAAP and those patterns could lead to diverting APEC economies or realizing the true FTAAP to achieve the Bogor Goals. JEL Classifications: F02, F15, F68 Keywords: APEC, Action Plans, Bogor Goals, Indonesia 1. Introduction growth. It was also the time of the world pro- claimed that capitalism as the winner of the Understanding APEC blue print should go cold war era and the free market system is back to documents of the early years of APEC, the pathway to prosperity. In those years, two especially 1989{1997. Those years were the largest communist countries turn into market golden years of APEC which shows the op- system: former USSR (now as Russian Fed- timism of the APEC leaders of the future of eration) and China. It was the years of Clin- APEC and World economy. ton Administration when the US economy has During the year of mid 1980s until 1997, Asia changed the world economy by introducing the Pacific economies were in the golden years of innovation of computer and internet. It was also the most important years for APEC de- velopment. ISome part of this paper presented at Trade Out- look, TPP, ASEAN RCEP, and Other Trade Policies, APEC economy is not only the most im- by SEADI and Ministry of Trade RI on January 30, portant economy in the world due to its size 2013, Borobudur Hotel, entitled Regional FTA in APEC and growth, but also APEC economy united Region: A Pathway to FTAAP? the most influential countries in the Cold ∗ Researcher and Lecturer at the Department of Eco- War: US, Russia, and China. It also includes nomics, Faculty of Economics University of Indonesia. Currently as the Director of ASC UI (APEC Study Cen- some ASEAN economies, Japan and Australia tre University of Indonesia). that experienced an excellence economic per- 1 Panennungi, M.A./APEC 2020: Multiplepaths to Attain... 2 formance. The purpose of the introduction of in 1994, the second report entitled "Achieving World and APEC condition above is to show the APEC Vision: Free and Open Trade in Asia that the circumstances of the early APEC es- Pacific”. There are some important explana- tablishment were the years with full of opti- tions in this second report that EPG tried to mism which drive the optimistic decision. The define some important terms: community, free decisions of APEC Economic Leaders Meeting trade area, and open regionalism. Community (ALEM) in those years are the decisions that definition is not proposing another European guide APEC until now, especially the AELM Community (now, European Union) but "a 1993, 1994, 1995, and 1996. One of the most like-minded group that aims to remove barriers important decisions during the years is the de- to economic exchange among its member in the cision of "trade and investment liberalization" interest of all" (page 53). Free Trade Area is in APEC. not preparing Asia Pacific Free Trade Area but The idea of trade and investment liberal- "put greatest emphasize on reaching through ization in APEC is based on the idea that multilateral liberalization in the GATT " (page the trade and investment linkages could im- 54). And Open regionalism is "the "region" in prove the economic performance and welfare of which free trade and investment result directly APEC economies. In that years, it seems that from APEC initiatives could extend well be- the economic growth performance of APEC yond the geographical boundaries of the APEC which led to the increasing of the trade and membership itself " (page 54). investment among APEC economies. And the The date regarding the start and achiev- decision in improving the liberalization could ing the Liberalization in Trade and Investment cause further of better economic performance could be traced from the PBF and EPG re- and welfare. ports. In PBF report in 1994 entitled "A Busi- ness Blue Print for APEC" urged that the 2. Interpretation of Bogor Goals starting date should be in 1994 and the comple- tion for developed economies in 2002 and for To achieve the trade and investment liberal- developing economies in 2010, while in EPG ization, APEC documents mention several im- report in 1994, put start date in 2000 and end portant terms, particularly open regionalism date or completion in 2020. It could be seen and the Bogor Goals. However, these terms are that the EPG and PBF have differences in time not only very important but also become con- preferences: the business want to be faster. In troversial due to its multi-interpretations. addition, the AELM in Bogor in 1994 set the To understand the terms, we should look target date for developing economies in 2020 back at the documents of the early days of and developed economies in 2010. APEC which tried to define those terms. In the early development of APEC, at least five doc- Let us look at the documents of the OAA uments that have shaped the future of APEC, as the interpretation of the Bogor Goals imple- which were produced by EPG (Eminent Per- mentation. The full paper of the OAA could sons Group) and PBF (Pacific Business Fo- be seen in the attachments. The paper con- rum). tains two main parts: Liberalization & Facil- EPG report in 1993 entitled "A Vision for itation and Economic Cooperation (Ecotech). APEC: Toward an Asia Pacific Economic Com- Liberalization and facilitation (especially trade munity". The report provided the foundation and investment) consist of 10 general princi- of APEC especially the proposal for trade lib- ples and 15 actions. The actions will be based eralization, trade facilitation, technical cooper- on the individual and collective actions. The ation, and institutionalization of APEC. Later collective action could be based on the fora or Panennungi, M.A./APEC 2020: Multiplepaths to Attain... 3 multilateral fora in APEC for each of the ac- Based on the AELM documents, APEC has tions. Ecotech is aimed at sustainable growth become the driver of the multilateral liberal- and equitable development in APEC that could ization by taking serious role in concluding reduce economic disparities and in the same Uruguay Round in 1994 and keeping in support time facilitate of the trade and investment in Doha Development Agenda (DDA) especially the region. The elements of Ecotech are com- under the rise of protectionism during the time mon policy concept, joint activities, and pol- of crises 2008-2009. icy dialog. The Table 1 is showing the essential part of OAA to attain the Bogor Goals. 3.2. Second Path: Peer Review of Action Plans toward Bogor Goals 3. Triple Paths in Attaining the Bogor Another way to achieve the Bogor Goals Goals is through the peer review of the Individual and Collective Action Plans. Individual action The two paths to achieve the Bogor Goals plans of each economy should be reviewed to could be seen from the interpretation of the see the progress toward the Bogor Goals, while Bogor Goals above: the first is through pursu- the collective action plans will be conducted by ing multilateral liberalization and the second fora and multi-fora. is by implementing Action Plans voluntarily or The action plans have covered important el- effort in achieving WTO-plus. The third tracks ements in achieving Bogor Goals and tariff is as a new trend was not encouraged in the be- only one of them.