Assessing Principles and Drought Hazard Implementation and Risk Guidance Assessing Principles and Drought Hazard Implementation and Risk Guidance © 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and con- clusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent, or the European Union. In addition, the European Union is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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Cover photo: Moldova’s 2007 drought was the worst in a series of nine dry periods to settle over the country since 1990, and the World Food Program compared its severity to the drought of 1946 during which many Moldovans starved. Source: NASA. Design: Miki Fernández/ULTRA Designs, Inc. Table of Contents Foreword ............................................................................................................................................................ vii Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................................ ix Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................................................ x Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................................. xii 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Drought management .................................................................................................................................. 2 1.3 Purpose and audience of this document .................................................................................................... 3 1.4 Reading guide .............................................................................................................................................. 3 References ............................................................................................................................................................ 3 2 Basis for the Drought Guidance ........................................................................................ 5 2.1 Definitions ............................................................................................................................... ..................... 5 2.1.1 Drought hazard ................................................................................................................................ 6 2.1.2 Exposure to drought ........................................................................................................................ 10 2.1.3 Vulnerability to drought ................................................................................................................... 10 2.1.4 Drought risk ...................................................................................................................................... 12 2.2 Modeling tools and resources for drought assessment ............................................................................ 14 Notes ............................................................................................................................................................ 14 References ............................................................................................................................................................ 15 3 Guiding Principles ........................................................................................................................ 17 3.1 Principle 1: Drought assessments should use a system-scale perspective ............................................. 17 3.1.1 Defining the right scale ................................................................................................................... 17 3.1.2 Connecting with all stakeholders ................................................................................................... 18 3.2 Principle 2: Drought has to be defined and assessed in relation to its impacts .................................... 20 3.2.1 Focus on impacted sectors ............................................................................................................. 20 3.2.2 The impact of different drought types on sectors and users ....................................................... 20 3.3 Principle 3: Drought risk changes over time ............................................................................................. 20 3.3.1 Climate change will affect drought severity and scale ................................................................ 20 3.3.2 Socioeconomic developments affect drought impacts ................................................................ 21 3.3.3 The role of groundwater in assessments of future drought risk ................................................. 23 3.4 Principle 4: Effective drought management should increase resilience and enhance preparedness ................................................................................................................................ 23 3.4.1 Drought management plans in place ............................................................................................. 23 3.4.2 Investing in risk reduction measures ............................................................................................ 24 3.4.3 Toward efficient drought early warning systems ........................................................................... 25 References ............................................................................................................................................................ 26 iv Assessing Drought Hazard and Risk: Principles and Implementation Guidance 4 Implementation Guide ............................................................................................................... 29 4.1 Scoping phase .............................................................................................................................................. 31 4.2 Inception phase ............................................................................................................................................ 32 4.3 Assessment phase ........................................................................................................................................ 34 4.4 Implementation phase ................................................................................................................................ 37 References ............................................................................................................................................................ 39 5 Examples of Application ........................................................................................................... 41 5.1 Placement of refugee camps in Uganda .................................................................................................... 41 Phase 1: Scoping phase ............................................................................................................................... 42 Phase 2: Inception phase ............................................................................................................................ 43 Phase 3: Assessment phase ........................................................................................................................ 48 Phase 4: Implementation phase ................................................................................................................. 48 5.2 Establishment of a social protection system in Ethiopia ......................................................................... 49 Phase 1: Scoping phase ................................................................................................................................ 49 Phase 2: Inception phase ...........................................................................................................................