AIR POWER Journal of Air Power and Space Studies Vol. 8 No. 3, Monsoon 2013 (July-September) AIR POWER CENTRE FOR AIR POWER STUDIES New Delhi AIR POWER is published quarterly by the Forum for National Security Studies for Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi. Board of Trustees Shri M.K. Rasgotra, former Foreign Secretary and former High Commissioner to the UK Chairman Air Chief Marshal O.P. Mehra, PVSM, former Chief of the Air Staff and former Governor Maharashtra and Rajasthan Air Chief Marshal S.P. Tyagi, PVSM AVSM VM, former Chief of the Air Staff Secretary Defence (Finance), Ministry of Defence, 139 South Block, New Delhi (Ex Officio) Dr. Sanjaya Baru, former Media Advisor to the Prime Minister Captain Ajay Singh, Vice President, Jet Lite Airways, former Deputy Director Air Defence, Air HQ Managing Trustee Air Marshal Vinod Patney, SYSM PVSM AVSM VrC, former Vice Chief of Air Staff and Director, Centre for Air Power Studies (Ex Officio) AIR POWER Journal welcomes research articles on defence, military affairs and strategy (especially air power and space issues) of contemporary and historical interest. Articles in the Journal reflect the views and conclusions of the authors and not necessarily the opinions or policy of the Centre or any other institution. Editor-in-Chief Air Marshal Vinod Patney, SYSM PVSM AVSM VrC, (Retd) Consulting Editor Lt Col R Ghose, SM (Retd) Distributor KW Publishers Pvt. Ltd. All correspondence may be addressed to Editor-in-Chief AIR POWER Arjan Path, Subroto Park, New Delhi 110 010 Telephone: (91.11) 25699131-32 Fax: (91.11) 25682533 e-mail: [email protected] [email protected] website: www.centreforairpowerstudies.com www.centreforairpowerstudies.in www.centreforairpowerstudies.org www.aerospaceindia.org © Centre for Air Power Studies All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system without permission from the Director, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi ISBN: 81-87966-30-0 AIR POWER Journal is published four times a year and is distributed by KW Publishers Pvt. Ltd. 4676/21, First Floor, Ansari Road, Daryaganj, New Delhi 110 002 Telefax: 23263498 e-mail: [email protected] Printed and Published by Air Marshal Vinod Patney (Retd) on behalf of the Forum for National Security Studies (the Trust running the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi) and Printed by Rajkamal Electric Press, Plot No. 2, Phase IV, HSIIDC, Kundli 131028, Sonepat, Haryana and Published at P-284, Arjan Path, Subroto Park, New Delhi 110 010. Editor: Air Marshal Vinod Patney (Retd). RNI REGN No. DELENG/2006/18450 CONTENTS Vol. 8 No. 3, Monsoon 2013 (July-September) Editor’s Note V 1. LAUNCH OF AIR POWER JOURNAL (IN RETROSPECT) 1 D.C. Bakshi 2. PAKISTAN’S IDEOLOGICAL SLIDE INTO JIHAD: CONSEQUENCES AND PROSPECTS 5 Shalini Chawla 3. INDIA’S CYBER WARFARE STRATEGY IN NEXT DECADE 37 M.K. Sharma 4. GEO-POLITICAL PERSPECTIVE: TIBET 67 Raj Mongia 5. ENERGISING AEROSPACE INDUSTRY: A NATIONAL SECURITY IMPERATIVE 93 Nishant Gupta 6. NAVIGATING THE ARCTIC: PLAYERS FROM ASIA 111 Ji Yeon-jung III AIR POWER Journal Vol. 8 No. 3, MONSOON 2013 (July-September) CONTENTS 7. NUCLEAR SAFETY-SECURITY-SAFEGUARDS: THE INTRICATE INTERFACE 129 Sitakanta Mishra 8. GEO-POLITICS AND STRATEGY FORMULATION 157 Prateek Kapil 9. CYBER WARFARE AND NATIONAL SECURITY 173 E. Dilipraj 10. THE AFGHANISTAN REFUGEE CRISIS: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN AND IRAN 189 Rhea Abraham AIR POWER Journal Vol. 8 No. 3, MONSOON 2013 (July-September) IV EDITOR’S NOTE This is the first issue of the Air Power journal that is being published after the sad demise of Air Cmde Jasjit Singh, the founder Director of the Centre for Air Power Studies. Single-handedly, he nurtured the Centre and has left it with an enviable reputation. No praise is adequate to describe the sterling work done by him. Those of us who succeed him can only hope to maintain the high standards set by him and, in his memory, take the Centre to greater heights. The Centre will always be associated with his name. One project that was close to his heart was the publication of the Air Power journal and we hope to ensure its continuation, both in frequency of issue and the quality of its contents. The support of all our readers is solicited. It is but appropriate that the first article in the current journal describes its launch so many years ago and the role of Air Cmde Jasjit Singh in starting the journal. Also included in this issue is an article on the likely consequences of Pakistan’s slide into jihad; and an examination of what India’s strategy should be towards the all important aspect of cyber warfare. Tibet will always remain an important subject of study and the article in this issue examines the geo-political aspects. Also, there is an article on the Indian aerospace industry, and an article that studies the impact of the Arctic from an Asian viewpoint. Happy reading. V AIR POWER Journal Vol. 8 No. 3, MONSOON 2013 (July-September) LAUNCH OF AIR POWER JOURNAL (IN RETROSPECT) D.C. BAKSHI The Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS) was initially housed in a DDA flat. It had limited financial resources, but was powered by the indefatigable zeal of Air Cmde Jasjit Singh. During briefings, Air Cmde Jasjit Singh often Group Captain D.C. Bakshi VSM (Retd) was the Managing Editor of Air Power Journal at the time of its launch in 2004. 1 AIR POWER Journal Vol. 8 No. 3, MONSOON 2013 (July-September) LAUNCH OF AIR POWER JOURNAL (IN RETROSPECT) expressed his keenness to start a professional journal exclusively for ‘air’ and ‘space’. However, shortage of funds came in the way: we looked for patrons for grants, advertisements and sponsorships. Shri Mukerjee and myself, two of his ‘obedient’ staff members provided a helping hand, while Air Cmde Jasjit Singh continued to labour hard to fulfill his cherished dream of setting up CAPS. A dedicated professional journal was the corollary of the project which he pursued with the same vigour. Shri J.R. Nanda, Chief Executive Officer of AVI-OIL, known for his patronage for defence cause (s) came to our rescue when he offered to insert quarterly advertisements in the journal. This would enable us to make an initial breakthrough. I was appointed the first Managing Editor ofAir Power Journal. During a brief function at India International Centre, on October 4, 2009, Air Cmde Jasjit Singh, at his wittiest, stated that “it was his crazy dream during the last 30 years to have a journal entirely dedicated to air power. This dream has finally seen its fruition.” He further added, “It is probably the only journal of its kind in East/West of Suez”. The release of the Journal by Marshal of the Air Force, Arjan Singh, DFC, was of a special significance, since it was dedicated to the legendary hero of the Indian skies, Air Mshl Subroto Mukerjee. Shri M.K. Rasgotra (former Foreign Secretary) who had chaired the session, cited the dominant role of air power in Kosovo, the two Gulf wars, and in Afghanistan. During these conflicts, air power had played a decisive role and it was proved in ample measure that no war could be won without it. Shri Inder Malhotra, a profound scholar of politico-military affairs, gave interesting insights from a wide canvas of 30 years of media coverage. Air Chief Mshl S. Krishnaswamy, the then Chief of the Air Staff, had graced the occasion. The distinguished members of the audience who applauded the launch of the Journal included Lt. Gen. A.M. Vohra (Retd), Adm Hiranandani (Retd), Air Mshl Vinod Patney (Retd) and Brig Gurmeet Kanwal. It was on this occasion that Marshal of the Air Force Arjan Singh, DFC, briefly touched upon the subject of “non-participation” (in an offensive AIR POWER Journal Vol. 8 No. 3, MONSOON 2013 (July-September) 2 D.C. BAKSHI role) of the Indian Air Force (IAF) during the 1962 India-China War. He exhorted the Centre to undertake critical ‘stock-taking’ of such episodes for benefit in the future. Citing the centuries old mantra of gaining an edge against the enemy, the Marshal advised, “One should not only know one’s own strengths and weaknesses but those of the enemy as well.” Academic inputs by scholars and strategists through Air Power Journal were expected to provide sound back-ups. Former Chief of the Air Staff Air Chief Mshl O.P. Mehra, the patron of CAPS, was of the firm opinion that the R&D sector needed strengthening; he strongly recommended setting-up an Aeronautical Commission to deal with the entire gamut of the aviation sector. On October 4, 2013, Air Power Journal enters the 10th year of its publication. May this enduring legacy of Air Cmde Jasjit Singh continue for years!! 3 AIR POWER Journal Vol. 8 No. 3, MONSOON 2013 (July-September) PAKISTAN’S IDEOLOGICAL SLIDE INTO JIHAD: CONSEQUENCES AND PROSPECTS SHALINI CHAWLA Pakistan has been in existence for more than six decades but the state has not been able to define its identity till date. Pakistan has been a nation of contradictions; it has shared an ambiguous relationship with Islam, tried to embrace Western notions of modernity, and, at the same time, tried retaining the orthodox Islamic identity, has an overpowering and ambitious army which has ruled the nation for more than 30 years directly, and nearly an equal period with a civilian façade, but has still struggled periodically to go back to the democratic order controlled by the fractured political leadership and has suffered a deep national identity crisis.