US-101 Express Bus Feasibility Study FINAL REPORT November 2018 This project has been made possible by a grant from the California Department of Transportation and a grant from the Regional Planning grantmaking strategy of Silicon Valley Community Foundation. [THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK PAGE] ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS SAN MATEO COUNTY TRANSIT DISTRICT Board of Directors, 2018 Project Team and Contributors Charles Stone, Chair Millie Tolleson, Project Manager and Principal Planner, Planning Carole Groom, Vice Chair Daniel Shockley, Senior Planner, Planning Jeff Gee Christy Wegener, Director, Planning Zoe Kersteen-Tucker Margo Ross, Director, Bus Transportation Rose Guilbault Patrick Blankenship, Manager, Operations Karyl Matsumoto and Scheduling Dave Pine Alex Lam, Senior Planner, Operations and Josh Powell Scheduling Peter Ratto Jessica Epstein, Government & Community Relations Officer, Government Affairs Executive Team Brent Tietjen, Government & Community Relations Officer, Government Affairs Jim Hartnett, CEO / General Manager Robert Casumbal, Manager, Marketing and Michelle Bouchard, Chief Operating Officer, Creative Services Rail Jeremy Lipps, Social Media Officer, April Chan, Chief Officer, Planning, Grants, Marketing and Communications and Transportation Authority Christiane Kwok, Manager, Market Research John Funghi, Chief Officer, Caltrain & Development Modernization Derek Hansel, Chief Financial Officer / Treasurer FUNDING PARTNERS Carter Mau, Deputy General Manager Caltrans District 4 Seamus Murphy, Chief Communications Silicon Valley Community Foundation Officer San Mateo County Transit District David Olmeda, Chief Operating Officer, Bus TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE Catharine Crayne, Associate Transportation Planner, Caltrans Vu-Bang Nguyen, former Program Officer, Silicon Valley Community Foundation John Ford, Executive Director, commute.org Jean Higaki, Transportation System Coordination, C\CAG Andrew Heidel, Senior Planner, San Francisco County Transportation Authority Joe Hurley, Director, San Mateo County Transportation Authority Michelle Go, Transportation Planner, Metropolitan Transportation Commission Matthew Lee, Transit Planner, San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency Jay Tyree, Senior Transportation Planner, Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority Thomas Szelazek, pointC CONSULTANT TEAM Danny Wu, WSP Sudhish Verma, WSP Lyne-Marie Bouvet, WSP Daniel Jacobson, Fehr & Peers Drew Levitt, Fehr & Peers Joanna Jansen, PlaceWorks Cliff Lau, PlaceWorks Claudia Garcia, PlaceWorks TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... iii 1. Introduction .........................................................................................................................1 1.1. Overview ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Study Process............................................................................................................................................................ 2 1.3. Study Area.................................................................................................................................................................. 3 1.4. Related Projects and Studies ............................................................................................................................ 11 1.5. Report Structure .................................................................................................................................................... 14 2. Public and Stakeholder Engagement ................................................................................... 17 2.1. Spreading the Word............................................................................................................................................. 18 2.2. Phase 1 Outreach .................................................................................................................................................. 18 2.3. Phase 2 Outreach .................................................................................................................................................. 19 2.4. SamTrans Employment Center Survey ......................................................................................................... 21 3. Project Purpose and Need .................................................................................................. 25 3.1. Purpose ..................................................................................................................................................................... 25 3.2. Need ........................................................................................................................................................................... 25 3.3. Project Constraints ............................................................................................................................................... 29 3.4. Project Goals ........................................................................................................................................................... 30 4. Travel Markets Analysis and Route Identification ................................................................ 35 4.1. Travel Market Analysis ........................................................................................................................................ 35 4.2. Travel Patterns ........................................................................................................................................................ 36 4.1. Travel Markets ........................................................................................................................................................ 38 4.2. Route Concepts ..................................................................................................................................................... 42 5. Screening and Evaluation of the Routes .............................................................................. 47 5.1. Evaluation Process ................................................................................................................................................ 47 5.2. Step 1: Initial Screening ...................................................................................................................................... 50 5.3. Step 2: Detailed Evaluation ............................................................................................................................... 51 5.4. Route Refinements and Recommendations ............................................................................................... 59 5.5. Conceptual Operating Plan ............................................................................................................................... 61 6. Implementation Strategy .................................................................................................... 67 6.1. Phasing Plan ............................................................................................................................................................ 67 6.2. Capital and O&M Costs ...................................................................................................................................... 74 6.3. Funding and Financing Strategies .................................................................................................................. 74 6.4. Performance Evaluation ...................................................................................................................................... 80 7. Moving Forward ................................................................................................................. 85 Appendix A: Public and Stakeholder Outreach Summary Report................................................ A-1 Appendix B: Travel Market Analysis and Maps .......................................................................... B-1 Appendix C: Shortlisted Route Maps with Communities of Concern........................................... C-1 Appendix D: Travel Demand Model Validation Memo ............................................................... D-1 Appendix E: Detailed Evaluation Results .................................................................................... E-1 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Study Process and Schedule ................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Figure 2: US-101 Express Bus Feasibility Study Area ....................................................................................................................................... 5 Figure 3: Transit Services, 2017 ................................................................................................................................................................................. 6 Figure 4: Former FX Route Map ................................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Figure 5: Transit Ridership Trend in the Study Corridor ................................................................................................................................