The U.S. Army and the New National Security Strategy Edited by Lynn E. Davis and Jeremy Shapiro Prepared for the United States Army Approved for public release; distribution unlimited R ARROYO CENTER The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army under Contract No. DASW01-01-C-0003. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The U.S. Army and the new national security strategy / Lynn Davis and Jeremy Shapiro, editors. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. “MR-1657.” ISBN 0-8330-3347-6 (alk. paper) 1. United States. Army. 2. United States—Military policy. 3. National security— United States. 4. World politics—21st century. I. Davis, Lynn E. (Lynn Etheridge), 1943– II. Shapiro, Jeremy. UA25.U227 2003 355' .00973—dc21 2003001189 All three cover photos courtesy of Defense Technical Information Center website (http://www.dtic.mil) Top photo in collage: U.S. Army Special Forces soldiers practice urban combat techniques. (U.S. Army file photo) Middle photo in collage: Paratroopers from the 3rd Bn. 505th Parachute Infantry Regiment exit a C- 17 and step out on to the runway at Kandahar Airfield, Afghanistan. Photo by Pfc. Matthew Acosta, 49th Public Affairs Detachment (Abn.) Bottom Photo in collage: One of three Strykers rolls off the C-17 during a Stryker deployability demonstration at Andrews Air Force Base, Md., Oct. 16, 2002. Photo by Staff Sgt. Marcia T. Hart RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth © Copyright 2003 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2003 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] PREFACE The Army asked the RAND Arroyo Center in fall 2001 to look at the implications for the Army of the new national security strategy. This was exactly the right question, given the remarkable changes that are occurring in the world in terms of both advances in technologies and how the strategic environment is evolv- ing. What we decided was to draw together a group of RAND researchers who have been working over the past few years on a variety of issues for the Army and use their research as a springboard for answering this question. The result is the chapters in this volume, which span the broad range of subjects that will be on the Army’s future agenda—strategic, operational, programmatic, and budgetary. Each of the authors describes his or her view of the most critical issues facing the Army and then what the Army needs to do. The substantive analysis in this report was completed in February 2003, as the international community was still debating its future policies toward Iraq. What happens in Iraq will almost certainly add to the complexity of the strategic environment in which the U.S. Army will operate and could well bring more urgency to the changes that the authors of this report call on the Army to undertake. Taken as a whole, the report provides the Army with a perspective on its ongo- ing transformation and where it needs refinement. In this way, the report aims to engage the broader defense community in the debate over which forces and capabilities the Army needs to be able to serve the nation in the future as well as it has in the past. The report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of the U.S. military in general and the U.S. Army in particular. In the Army, this research was sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations and Plans (G-3). It was conducted in the Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. The Arroyo Center is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army. iii iv The U.S. Army and the New National Security Strategy For more information on the RAND Arroyo Center, contact the Director of Operations, (310) 393-0411, extension 6500, or visit the Arroyo Center’s Web site at http://www.rand.org/organization/ard/ CONTENTS Preface .................................................. iii Figures .................................................. xiii Tables................................................... xv Acknowledgments.......................................... xvii Acronyms ................................................ xix Chapter One INTRODUCTION Lynn E. Davis and Jeremy Shapiro ........................... 1 Chapter Two THE NEW NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY Jeremy Shapiro and Lynn E. Davis ........................... 7 The U.S. National Security Strategy .......................... 8 Maintaining U.S. Preeminence ............................ 8 Defeating Global Terrorism .............................. 10 Defusing Regional Conflicts .............................. 11 Preventing Threats from Weapons of Mass Destruction .......... 13 Developing Cooperative Action with the Main Centers of Global Power ............................................ 14 The National Military Strategy .............................. 16 Operational Flexibility .................................. 17 Power Projection ...................................... 18 Operational Freedom and Coalition Support ................. 19 Homeland Security .................................... 20 Transformation ....................................... 21 The Army’s Transformation ................................ 21 Conclusion ............................................ 22 References ............................................ 23 v vi The U.S. Army and the New National Security Strategy Chapter Three THE U.S. ARMY AND THE OFFENSIVE WAR ON TERRORISM Bruce R. Nardulli........................................ 27 Introduction ........................................... 27 The Look of Things to Come ............................... 30 Elements of the Offensive War on Terrorism .................. 30 Dealing with Unprecedented Threats and Uncertainty .......... 31 Affecting the International Environment: More People in More Places for More Time ................................. 33 Enhancing Rapid Strike Capabilities: The Need for New Combinations of Combat Power and High Responsiveness ..... 38 What Does It Mean for the U.S. Army? ........................ 43 Managing Expanding/Repetitive Deployments ................ 43 Modifying Tools in the Offensive Strike Arsenal ................ 49 The Need for Revised Overseas Basing, Prepositioning, and Support ........................................... 54 Summary and Conclusions ................................ 55 References ............................................ 58 Chapter Four DEFINING THE ARMY’S HOMELAND SECURITY NEEDS Lynn E. Davis .......................................... 61 Introduction ........................................... 61 Providing for Homeland Security ............................ 62 The Army’s Approach to Homeland Security ................... 64 Homeland Security Environment: New and Uncertain ............ 65 Estimating the Army’s Homeland Security Needs ................ 69 The Method.......................................... 69 Homeland Security Tasks ................................ 71 Aggregate Homeland Security Requirements ................. 76 Structuring the Army for Homeland Security ................... 78 Implications of Homeland Security Requirements for Other Army Missions .......................................... 80 Conclusions and Recommendations ......................... 80 References ............................................ 82 Chapter Five THE SHIFT TO ASIA: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. LAND POWER Roger Cliff and Jeremy Shapiro .............................. 85 U.S. Interests and Alliances in the Asia-Pacific .................. 86 The Asian Operating Environment ........................... 87 Possible Security Challenges in Asia .......................... 92 Contents vii Implications for the U.S. Army .............................. 95 Rapid Deployment..................................... 96 Forcible Entry ........................................ 97 Defeat Antiaccess Strategies .............................. 98 Minimize Sustainment Needs ............................ 98 Forward-Deployed Forces ............................... 99 Prepositioned Equipment ............................... 101 Multipurpose Forces ................................... 101 Building Ties with Militaries in Asia ........................ 102 Ground Force Capabilities in Asian Contingencies ............. 103 Conclusion: The Hardest Change of All ....................... 105 References ............................................ 107 Chapter Six PREPARING FOR COALITION OPERATIONS Nora Bensahel .......................................... 111 Lessons Learned from Past Coalitions ........................ 112 Coalitions Vary Tremendously in Their Size and Structure ....... 112 The Technology Gap Is Increasing ......................... 113 Most Partners Lack Deployability and Sustainability ............ 115 Coalitions Rely Heavily