Table 1 Study Area Population YearZone 1Zone 2Zone 3Zone 4Zone 5Total 200627,72325,59622,64514,54119,999110,504 200727,98025,75322,74414,66920,080111,226 200827,82925,76622,70514,79120,193111,284 200927,89725,87522,80415,00520,312111,893 201028,02526,09322,87215,08120,385112,456 201127,95926,03322,92915,27620,568112,765 201228,05426,18422,99715,46920,625113,329 201328,27126,47723,18415,54020,747114,219 201428,25326,53523,26215,68820,930114,668 201528,27626,52223,28815,84320,931114,860 201628,55426,87623,48315,96121,084115,958 201728,52527,09123,58016,12121,190116,507 201828,83627,28323,70116,29221,223117,335 201928,93527,38323,83816,41521,412117,983 202028,96427,49523,98416,54521,584118,572 202129,15727,74624,13616,64521,707119,391 202229,35728,04324,24216,75421,775120,171 202329,43528,11624,38516,87521,911120,722 202429,67728,35224,50817,00722,000121,544 202529,76628,43824,59517,18322,046122,028 202629,89928,60924,75117,26222,183122,704 Increase 2008 - 2016 725111077811708914674 3%4%3%8%4%4% Increase 2016 - 2026 134517331268130110996746 5%6%5%8%5%6% Source: Experian Retail Planner Estimates and Forecasts to 2026. Table 2 Study Area Convenience Goods Expenditure per Head Including Special Forms of Trading Zone 1Zone 2Zone 3Zone 4Zone 5 Year£££££ 20061,6181,6731,6181,7531,668 20071,6291,6851,6291,7651,680 20081,6411,6971,6411,7781,691 20091,6521,7081,6521,7901,703 20101,6641,7201,6641,8031,715 20111,6751,7321,6751,8151,727 20121,6871,7451,6871,8281,739 20131,6991,7571,6991,8411,751 20141,7111,7691,7111,8541,764 20151,7231,7811,7231,8671,776 20161,7351,7941,7351,8801,789 20171,7471,8061,7471,8931,801 20181,7591,8191,7591,9061,814 20191,7721,8321,7721,9191,826 20201,7841,8451,7841,9331,839 20211,7961,8581,7961,9461,852 20221,8091,8711,8091,9601,865 20231,8221,8841,8221,9741,878 20241,8341,8971,8341,9881,891 20251,8471,9101,8472,0011,904 20261,8601,9231,8602,0151,918 Source: 2006 expenditure per head estimates obtained from Experian Retail Planner Notes Expenditure per head assuming growth of 0.7% pa. (Experian Business Strategies Consensus Forecast - Retail Planner Briefing Note 5.1 November 2007 Table 3.1 Table 3 Study Area Convenience Goods Expenditure per Head Excluding Special Forms of Trading Zone 1Zone 2Zone 3Zone 4Zone 5 Year£££££ 20063.6%1,5601,6131,5601,6901,608 20074.8%1,5511,6041,5511,6811,599 20085.6%1,5491,6011,5491,6781,597 20096.1%1,5511,6041,5511,6811,599 20106.6%1,5541,6071,5541,6841,602 20117.0%1,5581,6111,5581,6881,606 20127.2%1,5661,6191,5661,6961,614 20137.3%1,5751,6281,5751,7061,624 20147.3%1,5861,6401,5861,7181,635 20157.3%1,5971,6511,5971,7301,646 20167.3%1,6081,6631,6081,7421,658 20177.3%1,6201,6751,6201,7551,670 20187.3%1,6311,6861,6311,7671,681 20197.3%1,6421,6981,6421,7791,693 20207.3%1,6541,7101,6541,7921,705 20217.3%1,6651,7221,6651,8041,717 20227.3%1,6771,7341,6771,8171,729 20237.3%1,6891,7461,6891,8301,741 20247.3%1,7011,7581,7011,8421,753 20257.3%1,7121,7711,7121,8551,765 20267.3%1,7241,7831,7241,8681,778 Notes: Expenditure figures adjusted to reflect Special Forms of Trading (Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 5.1, Table 5.1) Table 4 Study Area Total Expenditure on Convenience Goods Excluding Special Forms of Trading. Zone 1Zone 2Zone 3Zone 4Zone 5Total Year£m£m£m£m£m£m 200643.2441.2835.3224.5732.16176.57 200743.4041.3035.2824.6532.11176.74 200843.1041.2635.1724.8232.24176.60 200943.2841.5135.3825.2232.49177.88 201043.5541.9335.5425.3932.66179.07 201143.5641.9435.7325.7933.04180.06 201243.9242.3936.0126.2433.29181.85 201344.5343.1236.5126.5233.69184.36 201444.8143.5136.8926.9634.22186.39 201545.1643.8037.1927.4134.46188.02 201645.9244.6937.7727.8134.96191.15 201746.2045.3738.1928.2935.38193.41 201847.0346.0138.6528.7935.68196.15 201947.5246.5039.1529.2136.25198.62 202047.9047.0239.6629.6436.80201.02 202148.5647.7840.1930.0337.27203.83 202249.2348.6340.6530.4437.64206.60 202349.7149.0941.1830.8738.15209.00 202450.4749.8541.6831.3338.57211.90 202550.9750.3542.1231.8838.92214.24 202651.5651.0142.6832.2539.44216.94 Notes: Derived from Tables 1 and 3 Table 5 Study Area Total Expenditure on Convenience Goods Zone 1Zone 2Zone 3Zone 4Zone 5Total Year£m£m£m£m£m Main Food Shopping 2008 @ 75% 32.3330.9526.3718.6224.18132.45 Grocery Top-Up 2008 @ 25% 10.78 10.32 8.79 6.21 8.06 44.15 Total 43.1041.2635.1724.8232.24176.60 Main Food Shopping 2016 @ 75% 34.4433.5228.3220.8626.22143.36 Grocery Top-Up 2016 @ 25% 11.48 11.17 9.44 6.95 8.74 47.79 Total 45.9244.6937.7727.8134.96191.15 Main Food Shopping 2026 @ 75% 38.6738.2632.0124.1929.58162.70 Grocery Top-Up 2026 @ 25% 12.89 12.75 10.67 8.06 9.86 54.23 Total 51.5651.0142.6832.2539.44216.94 Notes: Main food shop and top up split based on Savills assumption of 75:25 ratio Table 6 Main Food Shopping Market Shares 2008 OperatorZone 1Zone2Zone 3Zone 4Zone 5 %%%%% Asda, Leicester Road, Oadby town centre 10943.78%5723.27%135.42%2923.58%97.50% Tesco, Blaby Road, South Wigston 20.80%3213.06%8334.58%86.50%1815.00% Sainsbury's, Glen Road, Oadby 7831.33%208.16%20.83%3528.46%10.83% Sainsbury's, Wigston town centre 00.00%9137.14%2510.42%21.63%54.17% Asda, Fosse Park 41.61%52.04%3715.42%00.00%2218.33% Sainsbury's, Fosse Park, Leicester 31.20%72.86%2811.67%54.07%1411.67% Tesco Express, Aberdale Road, Wigston 20.80%72.86%104.17%86.50%43.33% Waitrose, Blaby 00.00%00.00%72.92%21.63%2117.50% Aldi, Bull Head Street, Wigston 31.20%145.71%20.83%32.44%43.33% Waitrose, Ethel Road, Evington 176.83%00.00%00.00%32.44%10.83% Co-op, Kibworth 00.00%00.00%00.00%75.69%00.00% Marks & Spencer Simply Foods, The Parade, Oadby town centre 52.01%10.41%00.00%10.81%00.00% Iceland, Wigston town centre 00.00%20.82%31.25%10.81%00.00% Co-op, Fleckney 00.00%00.00%00.00%54.07%00.00% Co-op, The Exchange, Eyres Monsell Estate, Wigston 10.40%31.22%00.00%00.00%00.00% Co-op, Aberdale Road, Wigston 00.00%00.00%10.42%00.00%10.83% Co-op, The Parade, Oadby176.83%00.00%00.00%00.00%00.00% Morrisons, Counting House, Leicester20.80%41.63%114.58%10.81%10.83% Aldi, Welford Road, Blaby00.00%00.00%20.83%10.81%65.00% Somerfield, Hillsborough Road, Glen Parva, Leicester10.40%00.00%72.92%00.00%00.00% Sainsbury's, St Mary's Place, Market Harborough00.00%00.00%00.00%75.69%00.00% Marks and Spencer, Fosse Park, Leicester00.00%00.00%00.00%00.00%43.33% Co-op, Dog and Gun Lane, Whetstone00.00%00.00%10.42%00.00%21.67% Co-op, Great Glen00.00%00.00%10.42%21.63%00.00% Co op, Countesthorpe, Leicester00.00%00.00%00.00%00.00%32.50% Marks and Spencer, Gallowtree Gate, Leicester10.40%00.00%20.83%00.00%00.00% Co-op, Blaby Road, South Wigston00.00%00.00%20.83%00.00%00.00% Sainsbury's, Belgrave Road, Leicester10.40%10.41%00.00%00.00%00.00% Somerfield, Kemble Square, Leicester10.40%00.00%10.42%00.00%00.00% Tesco, Hamilton, Leicester10.40%00.00%00.00%00.00%10.83% Tesco, The Square, Market Harborough00.00%00.00%00.00%21.63%00.00% Aldi, Springfield Street, Market Harborough00.00%10.41%00.00%00.00%00.00% Aldi, St Georges Way, Leicester00.00%00.00%10.42%00.00%00.00% Lidl, Kettering Street, Market Harborough00.00%00.00%00.00%10.81%00.00% Local stores, Blaby00.00%00.00%00.00%00.00%10.83% Local stores, Oadby10.40%00.00%00.00%00.00%00.00% Sainsbury's Local, Grove Farm Triangle, Enderby, Leicester00.00%00.00%00.00%00.00%10.83% Village Stores, Main Street, Countesthorpe00.00%00.00%00.00%00.00%10.83% Local stores, Wigston00.00%00.00%10.42%00.00%00.00% 249 100% 245 100% 240 100% 123 100% 120 100% Notes: Market shares derrived from Household Shopper Survey Table 7 Study Area Total Main Shopping Convenience Goods Available Expenditure 2008 Operator Zone 1 Zone2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 TOTAL £m £m £m £m £m £m Asda, Leicester Road, Oadby town centre 14.15 7.20 1.43 4.39 1.81 28.98 Tesco, Blaby Road, South Wigston 0.26 4.04 9.12 1.21 3.63 18.26 Sainsbury's, Glen Road, Oadby 10.13 2.53 0.22 5.30 0.20 18.37 Sainsbury's, Wigston town centre 0.00 11.50 2.75 0.30 1.01 15.55 Asda, Fosse Park 0.52 0.63 4.07 0.00 4.43 9.65 Sainsbury's, Fosse Park, Leicester 0.39 0.88 3.08 0.76 2.82 7.93 Tesco Express, Aberdale Road, Wigston 0.26 0.88 1.10 1.21 0.81 4.26 Waitrose, Blaby 0.00 0.00 0.77 0.30 4.23 5.30 Aldi, Bull Head Street, Wigston 0.39 1.77 0.22 0.45 0.81 3.64 Waitrose, Ethel Road, Evington 2.21 0.00 0.00 0.45 0.20 2.86 Co-op, Kibworth 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.06 0.00 1.06 Marks & Spencer Simply Foods, The Parade, Oadby town centre 0.65 0.13 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.93 Iceland, Wigston town centre 0.00 0.25 0.33 0.15 0.00 0.73 Co-op, Fleckney 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.76 0.00 0.76 Co-op, The Exchange, Eyres Monsell Estate, Wigston 0.13 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 Co-op, Aberdale Road, Wigston 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.20 0.31 Co-op, The Parade, Oadby 2.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.21 Morrisons, Counting House, Leicester 0.26 0.51 1.21 0.15 0.20 2.33 Aldi, Welford Road, Blaby 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.15 1.21 1.58 Somerfield, Hillsborough Road, Glen Parva, Leicester 0.13 0.00 0.77 0.00 0.00 0.90 Sainsbury's, St Mary's Place, Market Harborough 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.06 0.00 1.06 Marks and Spencer, Fosse Park, Leicester 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 0.81 Co-op, Dog and Gun Lane, Whetstone 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.40 0.51 Co-op, Great Glen 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.30 0.00 0.41 Co op, Countesthorpe, Leicester 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.60 Marks and Spencer, Gallowtree Gate, Leicester 0.13 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.35 Co-op, Blaby Road, South Wigston 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.22 Sainsbury's, Belgrave Road, Leicester 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 Somerfield, Kemble Square, Leicester 0.13 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.24 Tesco, Hamilton, Leicester 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.33 Tesco, The Square, Market Harborough 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.30 Aldi, Springfield Street, Market Harborough 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 Aldi, St Georges Way, Leicester 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.11 Lidl, Kettering Street, Market Harborough 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.15 Local stores, Blaby 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.20 Local stores, Oadby 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 Sainsbury's Local, Grove Farm Triangle, Enderby, Leicester 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.20 Village Stores, Main Street, Countesthorpe 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.20 Local stores, Wigston 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.11 32.33 30.95 26.37 18.62 24.18 132.45 Notes: Data derived from Tables 5 and 6.