Stephen Bush Boris David Hare on The end of certainty Johnson’s return surviving Covid Simon Kuper Why the new age of crises Sophie McBain on PhiI Whitaker on destroyed the confidence of economists how nature heals the testing fallacy Enlightened thinking in dark times 1-7 May 2020/£4.75 The second wave How coronavirus could return with renewed force By Laura Spinney 18 9 771364 743179 2020+18 The second wave.v4.indd 1 28/04/2020 16:46 20-17_ads.indd 7 20/04/2020 10:59:43 Established 1913 The question of national resilience n his first Downing Street speech since recovering The dilemmas facing the government have rarely been from coronavirus, Boris Johnson declared: “Many peo- sharper. In this unenviable context, the best approach is can- ple will be looking at [Britain’s] apparent success.” The dour. The Scottish government, which published its provi- Prime Minister’s desire to project optimism is under- sional exit strategy on 23 April, provided a model response. standable, but if this is success one wonders what fail- It states that “our guiding values should be kindness, com- ure would look like. passion, openness and transparency”. IThe UK has recorded one of the highest death tolls from Since his near-death experience, Mr Johnson has sought to Covid-19 in the developed world (more than 21,000 people strike a more sincere and earnest tone. Having once called for have died in hospital and many thousands in care homes the introduction of NHS charges and described the service as and in the community) and one of the lowest testing rates a religion that is “letting down its adherents very, very badly”, (37,000 tests were carried out on 26 April, far short of the he now hails it as “unconquerable” and “powered by love”. government’s pledge of 100,000 a day). Health workers have Belated homilies to the NHS are no substitute for a nation- been imperilled by a chronic lack of protective equipment (82 al strategy, however. The NHS employees and 16 social care staff have died). These fail- Prime Minister was wise on ures should not be forgotten or excused. 27 April to dismiss calls for a The lockdown, by contrast, has proved a qualified success. swift end to the lockdown. It has reduced the number of new infections and has prevent- As the science journalist and ed the NHS from being overwhelmed. Against some expec- author Laura Spinney writes tations, support for this approach has endured across all voter in this week’s cover story on groups; social distancing has become an act of solidarity. page 24, the risk of a “second The policy, however, is not without negative consequences. wave” of infections is obvi- Children have been unable to attend school (research by the ous. But as the lockdown Sutton Trust found that two-thirds of pupils have not partici- persists, Mr Johnson must pated in online learning). Domestic abuse killings have risen explain how his govern- and the number of calls to the Refuge helpline has increased ment intends to mitigate its by 49 per cent. As reported by Anoosh Chakelian and Michael worst consequences. Rather Goodier on NewStatesman.com, many people have failed to than being uncritically applauded, or unthinkingly traduced, seek medical help for heart attacks, strokes or cancer symp- his administration should be relentlessly scrutinised. toms, creating the conditions for a future public health crisis. Even as they confront Covid-19, Britain and the world The economic costs of the lockdown will also become in- must prepare for the threat of future pandemics. As Robert creasingly apparent. The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, was swift Skidelsky, JM Keynes’s pre-eminent biographer, writes on to intervene, offering to pay 80 per cent of the wages of fur- page 32, the West should end its “dogmatic reliance on global loughed workers (up to a maximum of £2,500 a month). But supply chains” as nation states seek to become more self- the Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated that un- reliant. Mr Johnson’s utopian vision of a freewheeling employment could rise to 3.4 million should full restrictions “global Britain” is of little use when the imperative is to continue for three months. As the 1980s – when unemploy- increase national resilience. ment exceeded three million – demonstrated, the long-term The shared experience of the pandemic is shifting our pri- cost of joblessness to individuals and the state is huge. No orities and altering our perspective. The United Kingdom will one should assume that a “V-shaped recovery”, as opposed emerge from this crisis a changed country – it is within the DAVID PARKINSDAVID to a prolonged period of stagnation, will follow. government’s power to ensure that it is also a better one. l 1-7 MAY 2020 | NEW STATESMAN | 3 2020+18 003 Leader.indd 3 28/04/2020 20:28:37 Editor-in-chief Contents Jason Cowley Free thinking since 1913 Deputy Editor Tom Gatti International Editor Jeremy Cliffe Managing Editor Will Dunn Political Editor Stephen Bush US Editor Emily Tamkin Creative Editor Gerry Brakus Associate Editor Michael Prodger Senior Online Editor George Eaton Features Editor Kate Mossman Culture Editor Anna Leszkiewicz Special Projects Editor Alona Ferber Rationed: Robert Skidelsky on the Noah’s Ark problem 32 Critical thinker: Leo Robson interviews John Carey 34 Britain Editor Anoosh Chakelian Commissioning Editor Gavin Jacobson Up Front Observations The Critics: Books Culture Assistant Ellen Peirson-Hagger 3 Leader 12 In the Picture 44 Sophie McBain compares Special Correspondents 10 Correspondence 13 Comment: Troy Vettese three books about the link Harry Lambert Sophie McBain examines what the collapse in between the natural world Political Correspondents the price of oil really means and mental health Patrick Maguire Columns 14 Commons Confidential: Kevin 46 David Reynolds on Daniel W Ailbhe Rea Maguire gives the pick of the best Drezner’s The Toddler-in-Chief, Head of Production 7 Jason Cowley on mortality gossip from Westminster a portrait of Trump as a man Peter Williams and the philosopher Bryan Magee 16 Encounter: Sophie McBain driven by fear of boredom Chief Sub-Editor 9 Phil Whitaker on why talks to the religious historian 49 The NS Poem Pippa Bailey Senior Sub-Editor Covid-19 tests are of little use Kate Bowler about suffering “My Grandfather’s Measure” Indra Warnes without contact tracing 17 First Thoughts: Peter Wilby by Kieron Winn Designer 19 David Hare writes this on Zoom-hacking and the new 50 Simon Kuper on Radical Emily Black week’s Diary drive-through age Uncertainty, John Kay and Social Media Editor 21 Stephen Bush on Boris 18 Trends: Paul Warwicker Mervyn King’s examination of Eleanor Peake Johnson’s return to No 10 looks at the history of what to do when economics Digital Culture Writer 23 Jeremy Cliffe on why the the ventilator can’t be trusted Sarah Manavis Editorial Assistant pandemic is unlikely to lead to Emily Bootle the collapse of the EU 29 Emily Tamkin on the Articles Contributing Writers Republicans still standing by John Bew Donald Trump 24 Laura Spinney on coronavirus Chris Deerin 39 Megan Nolan on how, after and the threat of resurgence Matthew Engel weeks without touch, her body 30 David Ottewell on the Martin Fletcher John Gray feels like a stranger pandemic in numbers Shiraz Maher 42 Ian Leslie on why politicians 32 Robert Skidelsky on what the Paul Mason should not simply accept the West can learn from Noah’s Ark Sophie McBain advice of experts 34 Leo Robson interviews the Adrian Pabst distinguished critic John Carey David Reynolds 40 Andrew Hussey reports from Leo Robson Paris on unrest in the suburbs Brendan Simms Ed Smith Amelia Tait Johanna Thomas-Corr New Statesman Vol 149, No 5518 ISSN Please note that all submissions to the letters page, our competitions and reader offers are accepted solely subject to our terms and conditions: details available on Erica Wagner 1364-7431 USPS 382260 request or on our website. 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Tel 020 7936 6400 4 | NEW STATESMAN | 1-7 MAY 2020 2020+18 004 Contents USE THIS VERSION.indd 4 28/04/2020 20:24:34 Cover art direction Erica Weathers Cover image David Parkins Mind maps: Sophie McBain on why we need the wild 44 Eating out: Felicity Cloake on the joy of armchair travel 57 The Critics: Arts Back Pages What’s happening on Subscribe + newstatesman.com 52 Michael Prodger on the 57 Food Felicity Cloake Save simple, striking landscapes of 58 Down and Out How the UK’s care homes were Christen Købke Nicholas Lezard abandoned to coronavirus 50% 54 Film: Ryan Gilbey praises 59 Under the Influence Anoosh Chakelian on how The Assistant, a subtly powerful Sarah Manavis workers were placed in Subscribe to the #MeToo drama 60 School’s Out Alice O’Keeffe unacceptable danger New Statesman for 55 Television: Rachel Cooke 61 Crossword, Subscriber of just £4.75 finds a documentary about the Week and NS Word Games Why the Scottish government £2.31 a week.