Grid Impact Analysis and Assessment for Increased Penetration of Renewable Energy into the Jamaican Electricity Grid Final report November 2013 JAMAICA The Ministry of Science, Technology, Energy, and Mining (MSTEM) Grid impact analysis and assessments for increased penetration of renewable energy into the Jamaica electricity grid 2/110 Final report - November 2013 CONTENTS I. Introduction........................................................................................................................................5 II. The Jamaica electricity network in 2013 ...........................................................................................6 II.1. 2013 Grid model validation ........................................................................................................6 II.1.1. Methodology ....................................................................................................................................... 6 II.1.2. Snapshot description ........................................................................................................................... 6 II.1.3. Simulation results .............................................................................................................................. 11 II.2. Probabilistic model description ............................................................................................... 15 II.2.1. Probabilistic approach ....................................................................................................................... 15 II.2.2. Methodology ..................................................................................................................................... 16 II.2.3. Probabilistic model ............................................................................................................................ 17 II.2.4. General Functioning of the tool......................................................................................................... 20 II.2.5. EDF tool ............................................................................................................................................. 21 II.3. Results .................................................................................................................................... 21 II.3.1. Steady-state performance of a network ........................................................................................... 21 II.3.2. Steady-state operational safety in 2013 without additional renewable ........................................... 22 II.3.3. Steady-state operational safety in 2013 with renewable portfolio................................................... 22 II.3.4. Winchester wind power site .............................................................................................................. 23 II.4. Target for penetration rate on a short term horizon ................................................................ 24 III. Construction of Renewable energy portfolios............................................................................. 25 III.1. Reaching the 30% Renewables Electricity Target: Renewable Energy Portfolios ............. 25 III.1.1. Hydropower ....................................................................................................................................... 25 III.1.2. Biomass .............................................................................................................................................. 26 III.1.3. Wind .................................................................................................................................................. 27 III.1.4. Solar Photovoltaic .............................................................................................................................. 29 III.1.5. Energy Totals ..................................................................................................................................... 30 III.1.6. Proposed renewable energy portfolios ............................................................................................. 31 III.2. ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE PROPOSED PORTFOLIOS ................................... 39 III.2.1. General remarks ................................................................................................................................ 39 III.2.2. Technology and costs assumptions: .................................................................................................. 40 III.2.3. Results of financial calculations and recommendations: .................................................................. 41 III.2.4. Discussion and recommendations: .................................................................................................... 42 III.3. Portfolio selected by the MSTEM ........................................................................................ 43 IV. The Jamaica electricity network in 2030 .................................................................................... 50 JAMAICA The Ministry of Science, Technology, Energy, and Mining (MSTEM) Grid impact analysis and assessments for increased penetration of renewable energy into the Jamaica electricity grid 3/110 Final report - November 2013 IV.1. 2030 Grid model .................................................................................................................. 50 IV.1.1. Load ................................................................................................................................................... 50 IV.1.2. Clarification about run-of-river plant ................................................................................................ 51 IV.1.3. Adjustment of the Maggoty Falls transformer .................................................................................. 52 IV.1.4. Correction of Bogue GT step up transformers .................................................................................. 53 IV.2. The 2030 Conventional plants scenario .............................................................................. 53 IV.2.1. Evolution of generation ..................................................................................................................... 53 IV.2.2. Location of new power plants ........................................................................................................... 54 IV.2.3. New step-up transformers ................................................................................................................ 55 IV.2.4. Full description of the generation portfolio ...................................................................................... 56 IV.3. The 2030 with Renewable Portfolio .................................................................................... 57 IV.3.1. Renewable portfolio .......................................................................................................................... 57 In the corrected scenario, Winchester has been decreased to 55MW and in the alternative scenario, it has been increased to 98.5MW. ........................................................................................................................ 57 IV.3.2. Adjustment of the conventional plants ............................................................................................. 57 IV.3.3. Full description of the original generation portfolio ......................................................................... 59 IV.3.4. Full description of the corrected generation portfolio ...................................................................... 60 IV.3.5. Full description of the alternative generation portfolio .................................................................... 61 IV.4. Results ................................................................................................................................ 63 IV.4.1. The 2030 Conventional plants scenario ............................................................................................ 63 IV.4.2. The 2030 With Renewable scenario .................................................................................................. 64 IV.4.3. Probability of instantaneous VRE penetration rate ........................................................................... 67 V. Comparison of scenarios and Recommendations for the network in 2030 ................................ 69 V.1. Voltage management in presence of VRE.............................................................................. 69 V.2. Steady state operationnal safety ............................................................................................ 70 V.2.1. Conventional scenario ....................................................................................................................... 70 V.2.2. Renewable scenario........................................................................................................................... 70 V.2.3. Conclusion from the power flow point of view ................................................................................. 71 V.3. Voltage safety ......................................................................................................................... 72 V.3.1. Conventional scenario ....................................................................................................................... 72 V.3.2. Renewable scenario..........................................................................................................................