ACKU ACKU Path Dependency & the International Conferences On Afghanistan From Bonn 2001 To Bonn 2011 ACKU Author Ahmad Javeed Ahwar THESIS INTRODUCTION: Thesis Name: Path Dependency & the International Conferences On Afghanistan From Bonn 2001 To Bonn 2011 Author Name: Ahmad Javeed Ahwar Edit & Layout: ACKUTareq Eqtedary Published by: Fes-Afghanistan Printed by: Barg Publication 500 Copies January 2012 Kabul Afghanistan ©Copyright is reserved for the author DECLARATION I declare that I clearly understand the OSCE Academy Essay and Master Thesis Writing and Anti-plagiarism Rules; and that the submitted dissertation is accepted by the OSCE Academy in Bishkek on the understanding that it is my own effort without falsification of any kind. I declare that I clearly understand that plagiarism and cheating are academically fraudulent and a serious offence against OSCE Academy Rules. I declare that I am aware about the consequences of plagiarism or/and cheating. Name: Ahmad Javeed Signature: ACKU Date: September 12, 2011 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First of all, I would like to thank all OSCE Academy staff for being so wonderful in a yearlong journey that we had together. The writer of this thesis owes a special thanks to Dr. Maxim Ryabkov, Director of OSCE the Academy for his wonderful thoughts that contributed a lot to this research. Furthermore, GCSP- the Geneva Center for Security Policy has also contributed a lot in facilitation of this research by providing academic support, library facilities; and especially my Academic Supervisor, Dr. Graeme Herd Co- director of the International Security Program in this center, who made this work possible by his great advices regarding better outlining, presenting and defending ideas portrayed in the thesis. Furthermore, I specially thank to Dr. Paul Danay – Co-director of International Security Program in the GCSP and Mr. Payam Foroughi – Lecturer in the OSCE Academy for reviewing my dissertation. Moreover, I would like to thank Dr. Markus Kaiser and Mr. Afiez AliyevACKU – lecturers for OSCE Academy to sharing their opinions on betterment of this work. At last but not the least, I would also like to thank from Friedrich Ebert Foundation for publishing my MA dissertation, particularly to Mr. Frank Hantke – Resident Representative of FES in Afghanistan for his supports to youth initiatives. I owe a special thanks from my heart to my parents for making me what I am and believing in me and praying for my success. ABSTRACT This thesis presents a picture from Afghanistan in the post 9/11 era. It is focused primarily on the international conferences on Afghanistan from Bonn 2001 to Bonn 2011. As far as the Conference Diplomacy remains the key politics for inviting attention of international and regional players to take part in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, its importance goes beyond that in practice, as these conferences have had intensive Afghanistan focused agenda and mostly concentrated on presentation of the country, development process, fund raising, policy debate on security, narcotics and economic development among other areas. Simply put, the conferences have given an inclusive image of a decade-long efforts in Afghanistan. To realize this research, the theory of ‘Path Dependency has been used as the key analytical foundations of this thesis. This theory will show the logic and analytical connection between the Bonn 2001 as a starting point and the Bonn 2011 asACKU an ultimate ending point. ACKU TABLE OF CONTENTS CHPATER 1: INTRODUCTION.................................................1 CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK.......................6 Path Dependency Theory ....................................................6 CHAPTER 3: INITIAL PHASE: …………………................... Bonn Conference 2001……….........................................12 Tokyo Conference 2002.....................................................19 Berlin Conference 2004 ………………...…….………….23 CHAPTER 4: INTERMEDIARY PHASE................................. Afghanistan London Conference 2006……....................28 Paris Conference on Afghanistan 2008 .............................33 Hague Conference on Afghanistan 2009………...…….....36 CHAPTER 5: Lock Ins-Phase..................................................... London Conference 2010...................................................40 Kabul Conference 2010 .....................................................44 The Kabul Process ………………..…….……………......47 What happened before the Bonn conference 2011?...........49 Bonn Conference 2011………………..………………….53 ACKU CONCLUSION.......................................................................57 BIBLIOGRAPHY...................................................................61 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Composition of the Interim Authority ............................ 69 Table 2: Composition of the Transitional Administration.............71 Table 3: Summary of the International Conferences on Afghanistan……………………………………………………….73 Table 4: The List of Foreign Troops deployed to Afghanistan…..75 Table 5: The Size of Afghan Forces on Duty….…………………76 Table 6: The Assistance Aid Pledged and Disbursed (2002-13)....77 ACKU PATH DEPENDENCY &THE INTERNATIO NAL CO NFERENCES O N AFGHANSITAN CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ACKU Page | 1 1 Page PATH DEPENDENCY &THE INTERNATIO NALCO NFERENCES O N AFGHANSITAN ACKU Page | 2 2 Page PATH DEPENDENCY &THE INTERNATIO NAL CO NFERENCES O N AFGHANSITAN INTRODUCTION Afghanistan owing to its geographical location is proved to be crucial for both regional and international security. The fact that it connects the three geographical corridors; Middle East, Post- Soviet Central Asia, East Asia and South Asia together demonstrates the importance of this geography for three reasons: First, living in neighborhood with two nuclear states „Pakistan and China‟; the premier is also called a fragile state in terms of internal security challenges besides that it has territorial disputes with Afghanistan and India, and the latter is considered an emerging global power. Second, it shares border with a fundamentalist and suspect nuclear country - Iran, which is under tens of sanctions of the United Nations Security Council, that draw attention of Anti- Iran countries, particularly the US and Saudi Arabia. Third, the northern part of this country meets the three post-Soviet Central Asia‟s authoritarian states that also have the potential of future disputes over the management of water and border with Afghanistan. In addition, its mineral resources that in total valued for US$ 3 trillion draws attention of China, India, Pakistan, Iran and obviously the United States.1 Furthermore, from a security perspective, Afghanistan is the field for direct War on Terror. The fact that thousands of innocents which are losing their lives by both suicide bombings of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, as well as NATO operations is evidenceACKU of this issue. 1 James Risen, “US Identifies Vast Mineral Riches in Afghanistan,” The New York Times, June 13, 2010 <http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/asia/14minerals.html> Page | 3 (Accessed June 09, 2011) 3 Page PATH DEPENDENCY &THE INTERNATIO NALCO NFERENCES O N AFGHANSITAN HISTORICAL BACKGROUND The year 1747 is considered the starting point of the modern history of Afghanistan which coincides with the takeover of an Abdali Pushtun who was commander in the army of Nadir Afshar-a Persian emperor. Receiving the news of assassination of his King Ahmad Shah immediately declared independence of Kandahar and Heart (the two key provinces in the South and West of Khurasan), present day Afghanistan. Very soon later, in a meeting of elders- Loya Jirga in Kandahar he was appointed as king of this newly independent territory called Afghanistan. It is notable that for the first time a Pushtun takes lead in power rivalry, whilst previously Turkic population of this land and Tajiks „Persian speakers‟ were in power. From 1880s, Afghanistan was recognized as a buffer state mainly by Great Britain and the Russian empires. Since then, protection of the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of Afghanistan have been the most challenging duty of rulers in the last couple of centuries. The misery did not end there, as internally the Afghan society, down to the existence of different nationalities like Pushtuns and Tajiks „the two major nationalities‟, Turkic and Hazara „two minority groups‟, has been witness of devastating ethnic disputes. After more thanACKU two centuries of absolute Pushtun rulership in Afghanistan without any tangible achievement , an internal change was going to take place. Ingilab e 7th Saur 1357- the Communist Revolution of April 27th of 1978 took place to bring an intensive social reform. As a substantial consequence of the event, the absolute authority of Pushtuns was challenged in a sense that having consensus of mainly the Tajiks became compulsory. Power structure changed intensively. Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks which in total composed a little more than 60% of Afghanistan‟s population entered into a new phase that could not be easily regretted anymore. This not only changed inter-Pushtun previous power struggle into Pushtun versus non-Pushtuns but also shaked up the Pushtuns classical importance in power. This largely affected Page | 4 Afghanistan‟s diplomacy in the region and international sphere. 4 Page PATH DEPENDENCY &THE INTERNATIO NAL CO NFERENCES O N AFGHANSITAN Pakistan, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the US showed more interest to the situation in Afghanistan. After the withdrawal of the Soviet troops by