THE SOCIAL EFFECTS OF DRONE WARFARE ON THE F.A.T.A. AND WIDER PAKISTAN Stephen Pine, January 2016 Submitted in partial fulfilment of the MA degree in Development and Emergency Practice, Oxford Brookes University The Social Effects of Drone Warfare on the F.A.T.A. and Wider Pakistan Abstract The FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) of Pakistan have a long history of conflict and have been used as something of a proving ground for U.S. drones, operated jointly by the USAF (United States Air Force) and the CIA. This dissertation aims to evaluate the social effects of drone strikes and drone surveillance upon the civilian population of the FATA as well as other regions of Pakistan. Through statistical correlative analysis this dissertation finds that, far from achieving the aim of eliminating militancy within the FATA, drone strikes have acted as a recruitment tool for the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) and have harmed the local civilian population. FATA residents have been caught in a deadly cycle of drone strikes followed by militant revenge-attacks which have often been known to focus on ‘softer’ civilian targets. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the data within this dissertation reveals that even the basic functioning of schools within the FATA has been affected, with both teachers and students hesitant to attend for fear of attack. Drone strikes in the region have also led to financial insecurity for families as they have lost their male ‘bread-winners’. This has been compounded by the destruction of family property and assets. Furthermore, local residents have been found to have developed mental health problems and, in many cases, display clear symptoms of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Inductive coding of qualitative data also reveals that mental pressure and a constant awareness of drones loitering overhead have forced FATA residents to alter both their social routines and their religious practices. i | P a g e The Social Effects of Drone Warfare on the F.A.T.A. and Wider Pakistan Statement of Originality: This thesis is the result of my own independent work/investigation, except where otherwise stated. Other sources are acknowledged by explicit references. Signed……………………………. (candidate) Date ………………………… I hereby give consent for my thesis, if accepted, to be available for photocopying and for inter- library loan, and for the title and summary to be made available to outside organisations. Signed……………………………. (candidate) Date ………………………… ii | P a g e The Social Effects of Drone Warfare on the F.A.T.A. and Wider Pakistan Acknowledgements Firstly, I would like to thank my tutor Richard Carver, not only for his patient and insightful advice over many months but also for his positivity through times when I doubted that the writing of this dissertation would even be possible. His generosity of time and calm expertise have been absolutely invaluable. I would also like to thank my family and particularly my mother, Myra Pine, for her constant encouragement and help, both emotional and financial. Without her love and amazing support, I would not have even started this master’s degree. iii | P a g e The Social Effects of Drone Warfare on the F.A.T.A. and Wider Pakistan Dedication This dissertation is dedicated to my father, Roger Pine, who would have approved. iv | P a g e The Social Effects of Drone Warfare on the F.A.T.A. and Wider Pakistan Table of Contents Abstract ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… i Statement of Originality……………………………………………………………………………………………… ii Acknowledgements ……………………………………………………………………………………………………. iii Dedication ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. iv Table of Contents ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. v List of Acronyms ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. viii List of Key Terms …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. ix List of Figures ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. x Chapter 1 - Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 1 1.1 Background – History of the FATA ……………………………………………………………… 1 1.2 Context – Conflict in the FATA in the 21st Century ……………………………………… 2 1.3 Dissertation Objectives and Introduction of the Main Research Question ….. 4 Chapter 2 - Methodology …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 5 2.1 The Need for Research on the Social Effects of Drone Warfare…………………… 5 2.2 Quantitative Data Selection ……………………………………………………………………….. 5 2.3 Statistics on Militancy within the FATA ………………………………………………………. 6 2.4 Pearson Product-Moment Correlation Tests ………………………………………………. 6 2.5 Educational Data on Schools in the FATA ……………………………………………………. 6 2.6 Qualitative Data Selection …………………………………………………………………………… 7 2.7 The Process of Inductive Coding …………………………………………………………………… 8 2.8 The South Asian Terrorism Portal ………………………………………………………………… 8 v | P a g e The Social Effects of Drone Warfare on the F.A.T.A. and Wider Pakistan 2.9 Research Limitations …………………………………………………………………………………… 9 Chapter 3 - Literature Review ……………………………………………………………………………………… 11 3.1 The Heart of the Academic Debate on Military UAVs ………………………………… 11 3.2 Militant Relocation…………………………………………………………………………………….. 15 3.3 The Weakening of Governance ………………………………………………………………….. 17 3.4 The Effect of Drone Strikes upon Livelihoods and Education ……………………… 18 3.5 Drone Warfare and the Psychological Impact on Communities …………………. 20 3.6 The Disruption of the Practice of Religion and Other Social Norms ……………. 21 Chapter 4 - The Effect of Drone Strikes on Security and Militancy in the FATA and Wider Pakistan…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 24 4.1 Military Operations within the FATA ……………………………………………………………. 24 4.2 Evaluating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Militancy in the FATA …………………. 24 4.2.1 Correlation between Terrorist Attacks in the FATA and Drone Strikes ………. 25 4.2.2 Statistical Findings in Context with Previous Academic Analysis ……………….. 26 4.3 The Problem of Militant Relocation ……………………………………………………………… 27 4.4 Profiles of Targeted Groups within Karachi ………………………………………………….. 31 4.5 The Nature of the Targeted Killings ……………………………………………………………… 33 4.6 The Simultaneous Surge in Violence against Hazaras in Balochistan…………….. 35 4.7 Qualitative Data Analysis: The Effect of Drone Strikes on National and Regional Governments in Pakistan……………………………………………………………………………… 37 4.8 The Erosion of Trust within and between Communities in Targeted Areas ….. 38 4.9 The Increase of Anti-American Sentiment ……………………………………………………. 39 Chapter 5 - The Effects of Drone Warfare on Education and Livelihoods ………………………. 40 5.1 The Effect of Drone Strikes on Education …………………………………………………….. 40 5.1.1 Correlation 2: Drone Strikes and Militant Attacks against Schools …………….. 40 vi | P a g e The Social Effects of Drone Warfare on the F.A.T.A. and Wider Pakistan 5.1.2 Correlations 3 and 4: Inverse Correlations Discovered between Drone Strikes and Functioning Primary and Middle Schools within the FATA …….. 41 5.2 Correlative Findings in Context …………………………………………………………………… 43 5.3 Qualitative Data Analysis – Accounts of the Impact of Drone Strikes on Education …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 44 5.4 The Effects of Drone Strikes on Local Livelihoods ……………………………………….. 45 Chapter 6 - Qualitative Data Analysis - The Effects of Drone Strikes on Mental Health in the FATA ……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 48 6.1 Negative Effects of Drone Warfare on General Mental Health ……………………. 49 6.2 Symptoms of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder ……………………………………………… 51 6.2.1 PTSD Symptoms Described by Drone Strike Survivors and Witnesses ………. 52 Chapter 7 - The Disruption of Social and Religious Norms ………………………………………….. 55 7.1 The Disruption of Social Norms ………………………………………………………………… 56 7.2 The Disruption of Religious Practices ……………………………………………………….. 57 Chapter 8 - Dissertation Conclusion ………………………………………………………………………….. 60 8.1 Summary of Findings ……………………………………………………………………………….. 60 8.2 Suggestions for Further Research …………………………………………………………….. 62 Bibliography ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 64 Appendix A – Qualitative Data Coding: Interview Extracts…….…………………………………… 71 Appendix B – Qualitative and Quantitative SATP Data ………………..…………………………….. 89 vii | P a g e The Social Effects of Drone Warfare on the F.A.T.A. and Wider Pakistan List of Acronyms ASWJ Sunni religious / political organisation AQAP Al-Qaeda on the Arab Peninsula CIA Central Intelligence Agency CPLC Citizens Police Liaison Committee FATA Federally Administrated Tribal Areas GCPEA Global Coalition to Protect Education from Attack HRCP Human Rights Commission of Pakistan IDP Internally Displaced People NAF New American Foundation NCTC National Counter-Terrorism Center NYU New York University PIPS Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies PTSD Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder SATP South Asia Terrorism Portal TBIJ The Bureau of Investigative Journalism TTP The Taliban in Pakistan UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle viii | P a g e The Social Effects of Drone Warfare on the F.A.T.A. and Wider Pakistan List of Key Terms Drone: The common name for an unmanned aerial vehicle or UAV. Signature strike: A drone strike authorised on the basis of a particular form of observed human activity using thermal imaging or satellite imagery. Pattern of life: The particular human activity which may cause a signature strike to be authorised such as a group of ‘military-aged’ people gathering at a particular location at a specific time. Double-tap drone strike: Two drone strikes in quick succession. The second strike kills those who come to the aid of the injured and dying caused by the first. Jirga: