Economic potential of cloud-based business tools NZIER report to Xero Early March 2020, prior to COVID-19 Alert Level Two Please note, this paper was developed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic impacting the New Zealand economy. Therefore, the specific details within this report need to be reviewed with this in mind. About NZIER NZIER is a specialist consulting firm that uses applied economic research and analysis to provide a wide range of strategic advice. We undertake and make freely available economic research aimed at promoting a better understanding of New Zealand’s important economic challenges. Our long-established Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) and Quarterly Predictions are available to members of NZIER. We pride ourselves on our reputation for independence and delivering quality analysis in the right form and at the right time. We ensure quality through teamwork on individual projects, critical review at internal seminars, and by peer review. NZIER was established in 1958. Authorship This paper was prepared at NZIER by Michael Bealing, Prince Siddharth and Laëtitia Leroy de Morel. It was quality approved by Todd Krieble. The assistance of Sarah Spring is gratefully acknowledged. Registered office: Level 13, Willeston House, 22–28 Willeston St | PO Box 3479, Wellington 6140 Auckland office: Ground Floor, 70 Shortland St, Auckland Tel 0800 220 090 or +64 4 472 1880 | [email protected] | www.nzier.org.nz © NZ Institute of Economic Research (Inc). Cover image © Xero. NZIER’s standard terms of engagement for contract research can be found at www.nzier.org.nz. While NZIER will use all reasonable endeavours in undertaking contract research and producing reports to ensure the information is as accurate as practicable, the Institute, its contributors, employees, and Board shall not be liable (whether in contract, tort (including negligence), equity or on any other basis) for any loss or damage sustained by any person relying on such work whatever the cause of such loss or damage. Key points Xero commissioned NZIER to investigate the economic potential of cloud-based business tools (herein references as cloud computing) to support the productivity and performance of New Zealand business and the flow-on impacts to the New Zealand economy. Our approach to understanding the benefits of increasing cloud computing uptake in New Zealand We used NZIER’s computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy to estimate the economic benefits of a 20% increase in the uptake of cloud computing. The modelling was grounded in the results for businesses found in the literature. We modelled three multi-factor productivity1 improvement scenarios associated with a 20% increase in cloud computing uptake compared to baseline: • Low scenario: +2.5% multi-factor productivity • Central scenario: +3.5% multi-factor productivity • High scenario: +4.5% multi-factor productivity. We estimated that the economic benefit of a 20% increase in the uptake of cloud computing would be an increase of real GDP by between $3.5 billion and $6.2 billion. Macro results are driven by higher annual production and profitability across industries A 20% increase in the uptake of cloud computing by businesses would have the following estimated effects, at the national level: • GDP increases by between $3.5 billion and $6.2 billion (1.2–2.1%). • Household spending increases by between $2.6 billion and $4.6 billion, and living standards are improved. • Output increases by between $4.1 billion and $7.3 billion annually. • Real wages increase by between $1.8 billion and $3.3 billion. • Capital stock increases by between $1.1 billion and $1.9 billion. • Exports increase by between $341 million and $618 million. 1 See Appendix E for a discussion of what we mean by the term multi-factor productivity. i The benefits to businesses include: • Increased multi-factor productivity with economies of scale and organisational changes. • Improved accuracy of information by reducing manual inputs and risk of duplicate entries. • Enhanced agility and mobility of staff through decoupling information with the location of the desk location. • More time for management to spend on strategy and innovation by reducing administrative tasks. • Enabling scalability on demand, while lowering the onsite investment pressures. The barriers to using cloud computing include: • The time required to understand how it could fit in with each unique business. • Skill and knowledge development needed to adapt and use cloud-based tools. • Concerns about security and privacy of information in the cloud. • Infrastructure and network needing to have access anywhere and anytime. • Costs of cloud-based tools and changing to new systems. Realising the potential benefits requires increasing the level of adoption In section 5 we suggest some industry and/or government actions to mitigate/reduce the barriers to adoption. Some actions require an industry-led approach, while others require either a government-led approach or joint action. ii Contents 1 Objectives ................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Research objectives......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Scope of the research ...................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Structure of the report .................................................................................................... 1 1.4 Research funding statement............................................................................................ 1 2 Our approach ............................................................................................................................ 2 3 Literature review ...................................................................................................................... 3 3.1 What is cloud computing? ............................................................................................... 3 3.2 What are the benefits of cloud computing? ..................................................................... 4 3.3 How big is the cloud computing market in New Zealand? ................................................ 7 3.4 What is the uptake of cloud computing? ......................................................................... 8 3.5 Are there any differences in uptake capability between SMEs and large businesses? ...... 9 3.6 What are the risks and challenges of cloud computing? ................................................ 11 3.7 The role of government in supporting or impeding uptake ............................................ 14 4 Impacts of an uptake in cloud-based computing tools on the New Zealand economy .............. 21 4.1 CGE modelling and scenario design ............................................................................... 21 4.2 The expected chain of effects on the New Zealand economy......................................... 23 4.3 New Zealand’s annual real GDP increases by between $3.5 billion and $6.2 billion........ 24 4.4 National output expands by between $4.1 billion and $7.3 billion ................................. 25 4.5 National wages increase and labour is reallocated across industries .............................. 26 4.6 Household spending increases by between $2.6 billion and $4.6 billion ........................ 31 5 Next steps to encourage greater adoption .............................................................................. 32 6 References .............................................................................................................................. 33 Appendices Appendix A CGE Modelling................................................................................................................ 37 Appendix B Additional modelling results ........................................................................................... 44 Appendix C Sectoral mapping ........................................................................................................... 47 Appendix D Data on cloud computing use in Australia....................................................................... 51 Appendix E What is multi-factor productivity? .................................................................................. 52 Figures Figure 1 Intervention logic for cloud computing .................................................................................. 2 Figure 2 Key benefits from the adoption of cloud computing .............................................................. 7 Figure 3 Market penetration in New Zealand ...................................................................................... 8 Figure 4 Businesses use of cloud computing by business size for all industries .................................. 10 Figure 5 Business use of cloud computing by industry and business size ........................................... 11 Figure 6 Key risks and challenges of adopting cloud computing ......................................................... 13 iii Figure 7 Our CGE model represents the circular flows between all the agents and activities in the economy ........................................................................................................................ 21 Figure 8 Main economic effects of a multi-factor productivity increase from an uptake in cloud computing .....................................................................................................................