Pathways to 2050: Three possible UK energy strategies UK energy possible Three 2050: to Pathways Pathways to 2050: Three possible UK energy strategies CO2 2050 Report of a British Pugwash Working Group About British Pugwash British Pugwash is the UK arm of Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, an international network of scientists and experts on international affairs, which seeks to inform government and the public on matters relating to science and world affairs. Carrying on the work that Joseph Rotblat and his colleagues began, it aims to bring scientific insight and reasoning to bear on threats to human wellbeing arising from the application of science and technology, and above all from the threat posed to humanity by nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. It is also concerned with questions relating to the social responsibility of scientists, and the quest for an end to war itself. Activities range from regular public discussion meetings and public education events to working with policy makers and officials. Publications include in-depth scientific and policy research as well as letters and statements to the media. British Pugwash believes that we are living in challenging times, in which many established patterns of domestic and international behaviour are being questioned, and that there is a very real opportunity to influence political developments by urging that decisions should be based on good science and rationality. For further information please contact: British Pugwash Group Email: [email protected] © British Pugwash 2013 Printed by Park Lane Press,Unit 11 Leafield Way, Leafield Industrial Estate, Corsham, Wilts SN13 9SW Cover photos (clockwise): EPR nuclear power plant under construction at Olkiluoto, Finland Jackup installing a turbine in an offshore wind farm (Seajacks) Sandia Labs PV array in New Mexico (Solar Tour Southwest - photographer Pamela Cargill) Carbon capture and sequestration pilot plant, Latrobe Valley, Victoria, Australia (CSIRO) Pathways to 2050: Three possible UK energy strategies Report of a British Pugwash Working Group February 2013 Authors and reviewers of this report British Pugwash Working Group Dr Christine Brown – champion of the ‘High Nuclear’ Pathway Prof David Elliott and Dr David Finney – co-champions of the ‘High Renewables’ Pathway Dr Ian Crossland – champion of the ‘Intermediate’ Pathway Dr Christopher Watson – convenor of the Working Group and general editor Reviewers Prof Alan Allport Dr Jonathan Perks Clare Maltby Dr Thomas Thornton Acknowledgements British Pugwash is most grateful to the members of the Working Group, who have contributed their time and expertise, well beyond what they might reasonably have expected, to the writing of this report. • We are very grateful to all our reviewers for their comments, most of which have been incorporated in the final text. • We acknowledge with gratitude the work done by Sarah Graham Brown in copy editing and preparing the manuscript for publication. • We are grateful to the Network for Social Change for a grant to assist in the cost of printing and distributing this report. 2 Contents Table of Abbreviations 5 Foreword by the Chairman of British Pugwash……………………………………………………………….7 Executive Summary…………………………………………………………………………………………....8 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 10 1.1 UK government energy policy planning 1998-2012 ......................................................................... 10 1.2 National and international commitments on carbon emission reductions ......................................... 12 1.3 Energy modelling and the DECC ‘Pathways to 2050’ initiative ...................................................... 13 1.4 The Working Group’s commentary on the DECC Calculator .......................................................... 15 1.5 British Pugwash contribution to public debate ................................................................................. 15 2 Energy supply and demand in the UK in 2010 ........................................................................................ 18 2.1 Overall energy production and use.................................................................................................... 18 2.2 UK Electricity production and use 2000 and 2010 ........................................................................... 21 2.3 Demand variation – diurnal, seasonal and exceptional ..................................................................... 22 2.4 Supply variation ................................................................................................................................ 24 2.5 Load following – supply and demand management, storage, reserve capacity ................................ 25 2.6 Regional and local variations – national networks, CHP, micro-generation .................................... 26 3 Background to the selection of three possible pathways ......................................................................... 29 3.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 29 3.2 Nuclear power – the common ground ............................................................................................... 29 3.3 Renewables – the common ground ................................................................................................... 34 3.4 Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) – the common ground .............................................................. 40 3.5 Costs .................................................................................................................................................. 43 4 Presentation by the champion of the ‘High Nuclear Pathway’ ................................................................ 48 4.1 Introduction to the High Nuclear Pathway ........................................................................................ 48 4.2 Considerations leading to the specification of the proposed Pathway .............................................. 49 4.3 Credibility of chosen nuclear technologies and timescales ............................................................... 55 4.4 Credibility of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology ......................................................... 59 4.5 Credibility of proposed Renewables technology .............................................................................. 59 4.6 Comparison with DECC High Nuclear Pathway .............................................................................. 60 4.7 Conclusion/Summary ........................................................................................................................ 61 5 Presentation by the champions of the ‘High Renewables Pathway’ ........................................................ 62 5.1 Introduction to the High Renewables Pathway ................................................................................. 62 5.2 Studies on possible developments ..................................................................................................... 63 5.3 Constraints and opportunities for further developments ................................................................... 65 5.4 Pathway targets ................................................................................................................................. 73 3 5.5 Pathway robustness and extensions................................................................................................... 80 5.6 Economic issues ................................................................................................................................ 82 5.7 International comparisons ................................................................................................................. 83 5.8 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................... 84 6 Presentation by the champion of the ‘Intermediate Pathway’ ................................................................. 86 6.1 Introduction and overview ................................................................................................................ 86 6.2 Considerations leading to the specification of the proposed Pathway .............................................. 87 6.3 Credibility of the chosen technologies and timescales...................................................................... 93 6.4 Sensitivity of the results to the chosen supply and demand settings ................................................. 99 6.5 Conclusion/Summary ...................................................................................................................... 101 7 An inter-comparison of the three Pathways and their national and international implications ............. 102 7.1 Overall energy supply and demand figures for the three Pathways ................................................ 102 7.2 Technical credibility of the Pathways up to 2050 ........................................................................... 105 7.3 Compliance with UK commitments on carbon emissions .............................................................. 108 7.4 Safety and environmental acceptability .........................................................................................