Towards a New Social Contract: Greek pensions halfway through adjustment Platon Tinios Piraeus University & Hellenic Observatory, LSE LSE Hellenic Observatory Policy Paper APRIL 2016 All views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Hellenic Observatory or the LSE © Platon TINIOS This document has been prepared for the European Commission. However, the report reflects the views of the author only and has not benefitted from any interaction with the European Commission. The Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein About the author Platon Tinios, is Assistant Professor at the University of Piraeus. In 2015/6 he is a Visiting Senior Fellow at the Hellenic Observatory of the London School of Economics. He was born in Alexandria and was educated in Egypt, Greece and England. He studied at the Universities of Cambridge (M.A. Ph.D.) and Oxford (M.Phil). He served as Special Advisor to the Prime Minister of Greece from 1996 to 2004, specializing in the economic analysis of social policy and especially pensions. He was a member of the EU Social Protection Committee from 2000 to 2004. He has also worked as an economic adviser at the Ministries of National Economy and Health and Social Security. His research interests include pensions, ageing populations, social policy, gender, labour economics and public finance. He has written in Greek and in English on pensions and social protection. His last book on gender and pensions was published in 2015 (F. Bettio, G. Betti, P. Tinios and Th. Georgiadis, 2015, Unequal Ageing in Europe: Women’s Independence and Pensions, Palgrave Macmillan, NY). 2 Table of contents List of Figures ................................................................................................................. 4 List of Tables .................................................................................................................. 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................. 5 The context ................................................................................................................ 5 What are pensions for? .............................................................................................. 5 Greek pensions: A Mechanism for disaster ............................................................... 5 Pensions and crisis: What happened between 2010 and 2015? ............................... 6 Interpretation of the post 2010 pension scene ......................................................... 6 The logic of reform: to rejuvenate trust in a new social contract ............................. 7 Medium term measures to buy time for deliberations ............................................. 7 Outline of a new multi pillar system .......................................................................... 8 Problem areas to be tackled in the preparation period ............................................ 9 Reform technology’ to prepare for the new social contract ................................... 10 1. Introduction: The need for a fresh look at pensions .......................................... 11 1.1 A need to take stock ...................................................................................... 11 1.2 Strategy and governance .............................................................................. 11 1.3 Tackling ambivalence on pensions ................................................................ 13 1.4 Overview of the argument and outline ......................................................... 15 2. Pensions: Buying peace of mind .......................................................................... 16 2.1 Pensions and old age security. ...................................................................... 16 2.2 Thinking of pensions in terms of pillars ........................................................ 19 2.3 The Greek pension system up to 2009: a mechanism for disaster ............... 22 3. What happened? An interpretation of developments since 2009 .................... 27 3.1 The situation before the crisis in 2009 .......................................................... 27 3.2 A summary of the new pension arrangements............................................. 28 3.3 Difficulties in interpreting pension developments since 2010 ..................... 31 3.4 A (subjective) evaluation of pension developments since 2010 .................. 32 3.5 Cuts in pensions as an equilibrating mechanism .......................................... 36 3.6 Fiscal costs and insurance benefits: The case of auxiliary pensions: ............ 38 3.7 An acknowledged inability to perform the functions of a pension system .. 39 3.8 Data and pensions: Hidden Treasure? .......................................................... 41 4. What can be done still? ....................................................................................... 43 4.1 Short to medium term: Buying time through parametric rationalisation .... 44 5. A risk- spreading cooperative solution in outline ............................................... 55 5.1 General desiderata of a systemic reform ...................................................... 55 5.2 Sketching alternative ‘three and a half pillar systems’ for Greece ............... 57 6. The way ahead: Signposting five problem areas ................................................ 62 6.1 The Transition period and recognition bonds ............................................... 62 6.2 Issues to be faced: The Starting point, Savings, Idiosyncracies, Governance 63 3 7. Preparing for a new social contract .................................................................... 67 ADDENDUM An outline of pension developments in 2015 ....................................... 69 A Timeline of pension reform 1934-2018 .................................................................... 71 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 72 APPENDIX 1 : Proposal for a research body ................................................................ 75 APPENDIX 2 The Question of public information ........................................................ 79 List of Figures Figure 1: Private pensions a Europe. Source European Commission (2010) Private pension schemes: Their role in adequate and sustainable pensions. ............. 22 Figure 2: Simulation of Replacement rates of the old and new pension systems, for different career lengths ............................................................................................... 33 Figure 3: Comparing official pre- and post-reform projections, 2009 and 2012......... 34 Figure 4: Pensions as percent of GDP, Greece Germany Italy 2001-2012 .................. 35 Figure 5: Cumulative falls of different kinds of pensions, 2010- February 2013......... 38 List of Tables Table 1: Five broad Dimensions of Fund consolidation ............................................... 49 Table 2: Two examples. One of real consolidation (Printers into IKA) one of the ‘name plate’ ............................................................................................................................ 49 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The context After a period of rapid change, there is need for a fresh look at the pension landscape. To take in the bigger picture, we should start from first principles – of what a sound modern pension system needs to do. A sober contrast of what is happening with what needs to be done, could serve as the foundation for a new strategic course. Such a course starts from the needs of society and then designs a new pension system; pensions ought to adapt to society and not, as happened previously, society to pensions. Greek society owes it to itself to, finally, conduct that debate on pensions, which to date has not taken place. The report argues for an explicit multi-pillar system, as well as for a medium-term programme to buy the time necessary for preparations and for consensus building. What are pensions for? Pensions exist to promote peace of mind in old age. They are needed to avoid poverty, and to ensure that exits from employment do not lead to falls in welfare. These functions have always been served by solidarity – arising in the family, in the occupational group, or wider society. A well-run pension system makes sure that the various forms of solidarity operate in tandem. Multi-pillar systems assign clear rules: The first pillar builds on society-wide solidarity, and is run by the State on PAYG. The second pillar is based on occupational solidarity and is financed by accumulating reserves, in order to preclude one group paying for another. The third pillar, individual pensions, uses self-help and formalizes life-cycle saving. The State intervenes both as direct provider of pensions, but also as system coordinator, regulator and ultimate arbiter. A clear link between contributions and entitlements (reciprocity) as well as sound and transparent governance are key. As social and financial sophistication develop, the State tends to concentrate on the social side of pensions. As a consequence, a large number of variants of multi-pillar systems exist, while, in the EU only three countries persist in near-exclusivity for the state pillar. The pension tool box is full and can be tailored for specific situations, provided that needs are clearly