Fantasy Football Impact: David Montgomery and Damien Williams Mat Harrison (@ExplosiveOutput) The biggest error that fantasy football players make every draft season is applying last year’s stats to this year’s draft. Just because David Montgomery finished as a top six running back in both standard and PPR leagues last season, does not, and WILL NOT translate to 2021. The main reasons to downplay your expectations: Damien Williams and Tarik Cohen. But before we dive deep into those two, let’s recap what was an amazingly productive year for the Chicago Bears running back. David Montgomery’s Fantasy Value While 2020 was not a favorite year of many, the stars seemed to align for David Montgomery. In his second season in the league, he saw his touch totals increase from 16.7 per game, to a robust 20.1 touches per game. Anything over 20 touches per game, and you’re looking at a bell cow runner. Those touch totals increased due to Montgomery more than doubling his productivity in the receiving game, going from 25 receptions and 185 yards in his rookie year, to 54 catches for 438 yards in 2020. Because of this explosive output, Montgomery’s current fantasy ADP is the late fourth or early fifth round. Casual observers might think that ADP is underselling Montgomery, as he was a dynamic runner especially in the latter half of the season where he totaled 8 touchdowns in the final six weeks of the season. He became the runner we all thought he could be coming out of Iowa State. No Coh’ Fo’ Sho’ Some might chalk his late season resurgence up to growth in skill, or a second year in the offense, but really, it was an ACL injury to Tarik Cohen in Week 3 that caused this huge uptick in Montgomery’s receiving game. Cohen averaged about 5 catches per game, and about 9 touches overall, and his absence from the Bears accounts for much of the increase in usage. Cohen should return to his pass- catching role at the onset of training camp, which could spell doom for Montgomery’s PPR outlook. Free Agent Find: Damien Williams It has been a while, but the last time we saw running back Damien Williams he was garnering MVP votes while racing to 104 yards in Super Bowl LIV. As a member of the Kansas City Chiefs, we saw Williams go on an absolute tear in the playoffs, scoring six times in his final three games in the Andy Reid offense. After sitting out the 2020 season due to covid concerns, Williams agreed to terms with the Bears on a one-year contract. Obviously, there is the Kansas City connection with Matt Nagy, although they did not cross paths in their respective time with the Chiefs. Williams did spend two years with offensive coordinator Bill Lazor in Miami. Lazor took over play calling duties for Nagy last November, and the result was a marked increase in points-per-game, mainly due to the increase in usage of Montgomery and the running game. The familiarity with Lazor and Nagy’s systems make Williams an easy fit as a change-of-pace back for the Bears. In the 2019 season (including playoffs), Williams averaged 5.1 yards per touch, just a tick above what Montgomery averaged in his banner 2020 campaign (5.0). With reasonably low milage, even in his age- 29 season, it’s pretty easy to forecast a path of six-to-eight touches per game for Williams. It’s where those touches happen that count the most, and my hunch is that Williams is deployed as a goal line back. In Montgomery’s two seasons, he’s had 24 carries from inside the 5-yard line and converted only 9 touchdowns (37.5% hit rate). While Williams was a proven goal line monster when utilized that way in 2019, converting his 7 carries from inside the 5-yard line, into 5 rushing TDs (71.4%). Fantasy Action Plan It is a bit unsettling when faced with the likelihood that Montgomery’s reception total will be cut into by the return of Cohen, and his goal line usage could be reduced by the addition of Williams. Even if only one of the above statements is true, it should be nearly impossible for Montgomery to repeat the volume of touches that he experienced in 2020. The equation I always return to is talent-plus- opportunity equals a good fantasy running back. The talent is certainly there with Montgomery, but I’d be shocked to seem him garner similar opportunities that made him one of fantasy football’s brightest spots last season. Montgomery’s simply not worth the reach in round four, and I wouldn’t want him as my top running back on a fantasy roster. He’s a middle-of-the-pack RB2 with Williams and Cohen in play. If he’s in your FLEX, you’re in good shape. Draft him in the late fifth or beyond. .