ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVES & SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Public version Legal name of Applicant(s): Nexter Systems Nexter Mechanics Submitted by: Nexter Systems as submitting Applicant Nexter Mechanics as co-Applicant Substance: Chromium trioxide, EC 215-607-8 and CAS 1333-82-0 Dichromium tris(chromate), EC 246-356-2 and CAS 24613-89-6 Use title: Use-4 Industrial use, of a qualified mixture of chromium trioxide by spraying or immersion, and of a qualified mixture of dichromium tris(chromate) by pen application, for the chromate conversion coating of welded mechanical structures of armoured vehicles and associated parts made of high mechanical properties aluminium alloys for military use, and requiring a maintained electrical conductivity after severe climatic environments, atmospheric corrosion resistance and paint adhesion. Use number: 4 Analysis of Alternatives – Socio-Economic Analysis CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .......................................................................................................... 6 1. SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................... 7 2. AIMS AND SCOPE OF THE ANALYSIS .................................................................................. 9 2.1. Equipments concerned and applications .......................................................................... 12 2.1.1. VBCI ........................................................................................................................................ 13 2.1.2. JAGUAR and GRIFFON ............................................................................................................ 14 2.2. Elements of context........................................................................................................... 16 2.2.1. Focus: Maintenance in Operational Conditions (MOC) .......................................................... 17 2.3. General methodology ........................................................................................................ 18 2.3.1. Scope of the AfA ..................................................................................................................... 19 2.3.2. An argument partly based on representative examples for the French army ........................ 21 2.3.3. Actualisation ........................................................................................................................... 22 2.3.4. Confidentiality ........................................................................................................................ 23 2.4. Substitution strategy ......................................................................................................... 24 2.5. Definitions of the “applied for use” and “non-use” scenarios .......................................... 24 2.5.1. “Applied for use” scenario ...................................................................................................... 24 2.5.2. “Non-use” scenario ................................................................................................................. 24 3. “APPLIED FOR USE” SCENARIO ....................................................................................... 26 3.1. Analysis of substance function .......................................................................................... 26 3.2. Market and business trends including the use of the substance ...................................... 28 3.2.1. Annual tonnage ...................................................................................................................... 30 3.3. Remaining risks of the “applied for use” scenario ............................................................ 30 3.4. Human health impacts and monetised damage of the “applied for use” scenario .......... 30 3.4.1. Medical cancer treatment ...................................................................................................... 31 3.4.2. Mortality and morbidity ......................................................................................................... 34 3.4.3. Synthesis of the monetised damage of the “applied for use” scenario .................................. 39 3.4.4. Complementary elements of analysis: values taking into account a 4% discount rate .......... 39 3.5. Environment and man-via-environment impacts and monetised damage of the “applied for use” scenario .......................................................................................................................... 40 3.5.1. Environment impacts and monetised damage ....................................................................... 40 3.5.2. Man-via-environment impacts and monetised damage ........................................................ 40 3.6. General conclusion on the impacts and monetised damage of the “applied for use” scenario ........................................................................................................................................ 40 4. SELECTION OF THE “NON-USE” SCENARIO ....................................................................... 41 4.1. Efforts made to identify alternatives ................................................................................ 41 4.1.1. Research and development .................................................................................................... 42 4.1.2. Data searches ......................................................................................................................... 42 4.2. Identification of known alternatives ................................................................................. 43 4.3. Assessment of shortlisted alternatives ............................................................................. 44 4.3.1. Alternative 1 ........................................................................................................................... 45 4.3.2. Alternative 2 ........................................................................................................................... 47 4.3.3. Alternative 3 ........................................................................................................................... 49 4.3.4. Alternative 4 ........................................................................................................................... 49 4.3.5. Alternative 5 ........................................................................................................................... 51 Use-4 Nexter Systems - Nexter Mechanics 2 Analysis of Alternatives – Socio-Economic Analysis 4.3.6. The most likely “non-use” scenario ........................................................................................ 53 5. IMPACTS OF GRANTING AN AUTHORISATION ................................................................. 57 5.1. Economic impacts .............................................................................................................. 58 5.1.1. Loss of revenues, profits and orders ....................................................................................... 58 5.1.2. Lost investments ..................................................................................................................... 61 5.1.3. Contractual penalties ............................................................................................................. 61 5.2. Human health or Environmental impact ........................................................................... 62 5.3. Social impact...................................................................................................................... 62 5.3.1. Impact on employment........................................................................................................... 62 5.3.2. Territory vulnerability ............................................................................................................. 68 5.3.3. Indirect employment .............................................................................................................. 69 5.4. Wider economic impact .................................................................................................... 70 5.5. Distributional impact ......................................................................................................... 70 5.5.1. Impact on operational availability of armament systems ...................................................... 72 5.5.2. Impacts on Maintenance in Operating Conditions of equipments ......................................... 75 5.5.3. Loss of investments for the French State ................................................................................ 75 5.5.4. Impact on France’s sovereignty .............................................................................................. 76 5.5.5. Impact on Nexter’s industrial partners ................................................................................... 77 5.6. Uncertainty analysis for both the “applied for use” and the “non-use” scenario ............ 78 5.6.1. “Applied for use” scenario ...................................................................................................... 78 5.6.1. “Non-use” scenario ................................................................................................................. 79 5.6.1. Synthesis ................................................................................................................................