Section 1: The population of South Gloucestershire Section authors Lead author: Kieran Morgan Version Date Changes made by number Draft v1. 7th Jan 2013 Kieran Morgan 1.1 Residents and where they live South Gloucestershire currently has a total resident population estimated at around 264,826 (ONS 2010-based mid year population projections). Sixty per cent of South Gloucestershire's population live in the Bristol ‘fringe’ area, specifically Filton, Patchway, Bradley Stoke, Kingswood, Downend, Staple Hill and Hanham. Approximately 20% live around Yate, Chipping Sodbury and Thornbury with the final 20% living in more rural areas. Map 1: South Gloucestershire 1 As classified by the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) – the population is located as follows: • 86.5% live in ‘urban’ areas • 4.8% in ‘town and fringe’ • 8.7% in ‘village, hamlet and isolated dwelling’. Figure 1: Urban/rural age structure of South Gloucestershire Source: GP registered populations (2011) and DEFRA definitions (2005) These communities are different in ways that will affect their need for services, now and in the future. For example, Figure 1 shows that non-urban populations tend to be older. 1.2 Population trends The population is projected to rise to: • 277,500 by 2015 • 287,600 by 2020 • 313,600 by 2035. 2 Figure 2: Population estimates (1994-2010) and projections (2011-2035) Source: ONS 2010 subnational population projections and mid-year estimates This increase in the size of the population is different for men and women (Figure 2) and for different age groups (Table 1 and Figure 2). It is particularly marked for older people and least noticeable for children and those of working age. Table 1: Projected percentage increase in the populations of South Gloucestershire and England by age group South Gloucestershire predicted England predicted percentage percentage change change 2010 to 2035 2010 to 2035 Age Per Age Female Perso group Males Females son group Males s n 0-4 6 5 5 0-4 5 5 5 5-19 10 12 11 5-19 15 15 15 20-64 12 4 8 20-64 11 7 9 65+ 69 63 67 65+ 73 59 65 65-74 43 47 45 65-74 51 49 50 75-84 66 51 59 75-84 66 47 55 85+ 250 147 183 85+ 215 113 146 All ages 20 16 18 All ages 20 18 19 Source: ONS 2010 subnational population projections and mid-year estimates 3 Figure 3: Population pyramid for 2010 and 2035 Figure 4: Actual number of births in South Gloucestershire 1995-2010 and projected 2011-2035 Source: Public health data set and ONS 2010 sub-national population projections Figure 4 shows the projected number of births in South Gloucestershire up until 2035. After a recent dip, numbers are now starting to rise and are expected to continue to do so until around 2018. They are then expected to start to fall again. 4 1.3: The age of residents Table 2: South Gloucestershire wards with the highest number and percentages of older people (65+) in 2010 Ward name % Ward name No. Westerleigh 25.7 Downend 2,439 Winterbourne 24.5 Hanham 2,277 Thornbury North 22.8 Rodway 2,212 Chipping Sodbury 22.2 Kings Chase 2,164 Severn 22.2 Filton 1,807 Thornbury South and Alveston 21.8 Thornbury North 1,794 Downend 21.7 Winterbourne 1,761 Hanham 21.5 Woodstock 1,675 Yate Central 20.7 Thornbury South and Alveston 1,644 Frampton Cotterell 20.4 Yate Central 1,601 Rodway 20.3 Chipping Sodbury 1,557 Longwell Green 20.0 Yate North 1,499 Bitton 19.7 Frampton Cotterell 1,472 Kings Chase 19.7 Emersons Green 1,446 Almondsbury 19.5 Longwell Green 1,443 Cotswold Edge 19.2 Boyd Valley 1,424 Boyd Valley 18.4 Stoke Gifford 1,420 Staple Hill 18.4 Staple Hill 1,319 Ladden Brook 17.3 Patchway 1,251 Filton 17.2 Parkwall 1,180 Woodstock 15.8 Oldland Common 1,068 Pilning and Severn Beach 15.6 Westerleigh 998 Bradley Stoke Central and Stoke Parkwall 14.5 Lodge 871 Patchway 13.9 Severn 828 Oldland Common 13.9 Dodington 799 Charfield 13.0 Almondsbury 768 Siston 13.0 Bitton 684 Yate North 12.9 Ladden Brook 671 Stoke Gifford 11.5 Cotswold Edge 630 Emersons Green 11.3 Frenchay and Stoke Park 626 Bradley Stoke Central and Stoke Lodge 10.7 Charfield 593 Dodington 9.7 Siston 589 Frenchay and Stoke Park 9.4 Pilning and Severn Beach 581 Bradley Stoke North 8.0 Bradley Stoke South 399 Bradley Stoke South 4.2 Bradley Stoke North 338 South Gloucestershire 16.5 South Gloucestershire 43,828 Source: ONS 2010 mid-year estimates 5 Although South Gloucestershire has a lower proportion of elderly people than the UK average, people aged 65 yea rs and over are the fastest growing age group. Longer term ONS projections suggest that there will be around an extra 29,200 people aged over 65 years in South Gloucestershire by 2035 compared to 2010 figures; an increase of 66%. The greatest concentration of older people live on the fringes of Bristol in the Kingswood, Downend and Filton areas. Thornbury and the more rural areas of South Gloucestershire also have a significant proportion of over 65s. The number of people aged over 85 is expected to nearly triple in the next 25 years, from around 5,378 in 2010 to 15,300 in 2035. Dependency ratio The proportion of the population who are of working age is expected to decline as the numbers of older people increase and fertility rates fall. This is measured by the dependency ratio – the number of non-working age people (aged 0-15 years or 65 years and over) as a percentage of people of working age (16-64 years). The dependency ratio in South Gloucestershire is currently similar to the national average at 51% in 2010 i.e. there are just short of two working age people for every non-working person. This is expected to rise to 59% in 2035. The dependency ratio for older people (65 years and over) is 25% ie there are four working age people for every older person in 2010. This is expected to be 32% in 2035 ie a reduction to three working age people to every older person. It is not clear if this trend, particularly when coupled with a rising divorce rate, will result in more people needing care facilities outside of the family. A number of factors may mitigate this, including the increased probability of spouses surviving into old age, migration patterns (immigrants tend to be of working age and in fairly good health) and the rise in the number of elderly with at least one child surviving. 1.4 Introduction to our diverse population Black and minority ethnic groups South Gloucestershire had a Black and minority ethnic (BME) population of 3.6% in 20011 and an estimated 8.9% in 2009 (see Table 3).2 This compares to the national average of 17.2% in 2009. In a number of neighbourhoods the proportion is much higher. Bradley Stoke ward had the highest ward percentage at the time of the 2001 census. 1 ONS census 2001 2 ONS estimate 2009 6 People from minority ethnic groups living in England are typically younger than the White British population, with the exception of White Irish and White Other communities.3 Table 3: Estimates of BME population in South Gloucestershire 2009 Ethnic group Number of Percentage of people total population of South Gloucestershire White British 239,000 91.2% White Irish 1,700 0.6% White other 6,600 2.5% Mixed 3,600 1.4% Asian 6,200 2.4% Black 2,500 1.0% Chinese/other ethnic group 2,700 1.0% Source: Office for National Statistics, Resident Population Estim ates by Ethnic Group, 2009 Migration Registration with general practices gives a reasonably good picture of recent immigration into South Gloucestershire and neighbouring areas, although some data are incomplete. For the single year 2010/2011,4 there were 1,387 new registrations from outside the area and Figure 5 shows the range of countries from which immigrants came. There are a small number of asylum seekers, but others are from many different countries. In 2010/11, the highest number of new immigrant registrations came from India followed by Poland and several other eastern European countries. The pattern of country of origin varies slightly from year to year but has included these countries for some time. 3 Association of Public Health Observatories 2005 Indications of Public Health in the English Regions: 4: Ethnicity and Health: SEPHO 4 Data extracted from the Exeter system for GP registrations 2010/2011 7 Figure 5: Number of new registrations in general practices in South Gloucestershire in 2010/2011 Source: Exeter system (GP registrations, 2010/11) The broad range of countries indicates the range of translation services that may be required within health and social services and the increasing demand for English speaking for other languages (ESOL) courses which is likely to occur. Although migrants are generally assumed to be a young, healthy population in order to move to and work in another country,5 their level of health generally relates to their country of origin and may still be worse than the UK standard. Additionally, asylum seekers and those coming from countries troubled by civil war, or violence, may have significant health needs, particularly mental health needs. Good translation services are essential for efficient treatment of immigrants’ health, especially where emergency treatment is required.