Matthew Dowd on how an independent (maybe him) could beat... http://politics.blog.mystatesman.com/2017/03/20/matthew-dow... SUBSCRIBE 71° " as low as 99¢ # (HTTPS://SUBSCRIBE.STATESMAN.COM/SUBSCRIPTIONPANEL?PRESENTATION=MYSUBSCRIBE) (http://www.mystatesman.com/) http://www.mys(http://www.states- - ! LOG IN tates- man.com man.com /traffic/) /weather) First Reading (http://politics.blog.mystatesman.com/ (http://politics.blog.mystatesman.com/) Our take on what's trending in politics in Austin and across Texas, from the Statesman's chief political correspondent Jonathan Tilove. Matthew Dowd on how an independent (maybe him) $ (//www.facebook.com/share.php?u=http://politics.blog.mystatesman.com/2017/03/20/matthew-dowd-on-how-an-independent-maybe-him-could-beat-ted- couldcruz-in-2018/) % beat (//twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http://politics.blog.mystatesman.com/2017/03/20/matthew-dowd-on-how-an-independent-maybe-him-could- Ted Cruz in 2018 beat-ted-cruz-in-2018/&text=MatthewBy Jonathan Tilove (http://politics.blog.mystatesman.com/author/jtilove/ Dowd on how an independent (maybe) him) could beat Ted Cruz in 2018) March 20, 2017 Good morning Austin: I had a story (http://www.mystatesman.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/bipartisan-road-trip-gives-beto-rourke- head-start-senate-race/igOr5F8WpFJII9oGbgASiI/)in Sunday’s paper about the early action in the 2018 race for the U.S. Senate seat held by Ted Cruz, with Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic congressman from El Paso, getting a head start last week with his spur-of-the-moment, sieze-the-day bipartisan San Antonio-to-Washington, D.C., road trip with his Republican colleague Will Hurd. O’Rourke has yet to formally announce his candidacy, but his intentions seem unmistakable. Meanwhile, Joaquin Castro, the Democratic congressman from San Antonio, is also considering making the race, though his candidacy seems less likely. Either way, for Texas Democrats it seems a heartening development that two young and attractive candidates are se- riously interested in taking on Cruz. But, just before O’Rourke set out on his road trip, I talked to another potential candidate for the Cruz seat, whose path would seem an even longer shot than O’Rourke’s or Castro’s. That is Matthew Dowd. Dowd these days is probably best known as an ABC political analyst and frequent member of the Sunday panel of folks who tell you what’s really going on on This Week with George Stephanopoulos. But Dowd’s remarkable trajectory in Texas politics is its own bipartisan road trip. He has gone from political director of the Texas Democratic Party, and strategist for Sen. Lloyd Bentsen and Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock, to serving as a top strate- gist for George W. Bush’s presidential campaigns, to his ultimate, very public disenchantment with President Bush, to the place he is now, no longer a partisan or a consultant, but an independent seriously considering running for the Senate in 2018. On the face of it, it seems an unlikely venture, but considering Dowd’s background, track record and knowledge of Texas and American politics, what he does warrants being taken seriously. Here from an NPR story (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=9432522) by Eric Weiner almost ex- actly ten years ago. Unlike Karl Rove, Matthew Dowd is not a household name. He is not a regular source of fodder for late-night co- medians. He does not have an office in the White House. He doesn’t even live in Washington, D.C. Yet Dowd, 45, was arguably just as important as Rove in getting President Bush elected to the White House. Twice. Dowd played a key role as a pollster in 2000 and was appointed the president’s chief strategist during the 2004 campaign. He has also worked as an adviser to California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. He has even advised the NBA, which was trying to repair its image after a brawl between players and fans in 2005. 1 of 9 3/20/17, 11:58 PM Matthew Dowd on how an independent (maybe him) could beat... http://politics.blog.mystatesman.com/2017/03/20/matthew-dow... Dowd is considered an expert at interpreting polls, someone with a sixth sense for which way the political winds are blowing. During the 2004 campaign, Dowd was one of those responsible for painting Democratic Sen. John Kerry as a flip-flopper who could not be trusted with matters of national security. The NPR story came as a result of an interview Dowd had given to Jim Rutenberg of the New York Times: (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/01/washington/01adviser.html)Ex-Aide Says He’s Lost Faith in Bush And here is another good story (http://articles.latimes.com/2007/nov/14/nation/na-dowd14) on Dowd’s anguished split with Bush from Mark Z. Barabak at the Los Angeles Times. Meanwhile, back in September 2015, when most political commentators were still in deep, deep denial, Dowd pre- dicted that Trump would be the Republican nominee for president. ABC election predictions MATTHEW DOWD, ABC POLITICAL ANALYST: If you look at where the race is today and you look at some level of history, this race is way beyond anything we’ve seen. I think Donald Trump as of today is the Republican nomi- nee for president. STEPHANOPOULOS: The Republican nominee? DOWD: The Republican nominee for president. He leads nationally in every single poll for more than two months. He leads every single state, including favorite son states like Florida where he leads Jeb Bush. Jeb Bush is third. And any Republican that has lead for two months and lead every state has won the GOP nomination. STEPHANOPOULOS: Bill Kristol, what do you think of that? BILL KRISTOL, THE WEEKLY STANDARD: Won’t happen. Won’t happen. Of course, like virtually every other pundit and analyst, Dowd thought Clinton would prevail in the end. ABC election predictions Just after the new year, Dowd signaled his interest in running for the Senate. I talked to him about it a week ago Sunday. Here is our conversation. DOWD: We’ve basically innovated every aspect of our American culture, economy, but for politics and governance, and governance won’t be innovated until politics is innovated. Both major parties are disliked simultaneously. That’s both nationally and actually in Texas too. The Republicans are 2 of 9 3/20/17, 11:58 PM Matthew Dowd on how an independent (maybe him) could beat... http://politics.blog.mystatesman.com/2017/03/20/matthew-dow... liked more than the Democrats but a plurality dislike the Republicans in Texas as they dislike the Democrats, though the Democrats is higher.. Much of what happened in 2016, it’s been coming for a while. This increasing frustration that the choice is limited, and it doesn’t represent where the majority of the country is because both political parties don’t represent what the coun- try looks like as a whole. Neither political party. One party, urban-centered, driven by the coasts, is different than the country as a whole. The Democrats. The other party is much more rural, small town, suburban-centered, no coastal stuff, no urban strength, predominately white and people that are churched. When you look, a majority of the country is a hybrid of that and there is no choice, and they keep getting less and less representative of the country as a whole, and that leaves a whole lot of people, a whole lot of voters unrepresented. And I think Texas is a perfect place to understand this. The number of disenfranchised voters is probably as great as anywhere in the country. What I mean by that is, the Democrats have no power, the entire state is red, every statewide office since 1998 has been held by a Republican, and so all the Democrats have no real power so they are disenfranchised. Independents don’t want to participate because they don’t feel they fit, so they are disenfranchised, because they don’t want to play in the primary system. And then about a third of Republicans, who I would call mainstream, chamber of commerce types, the leadership of the Republican Party doesn’t represent them. So a third of Republicans, independents and Democrats, and independents, interestingly enough, I think for the first time on election day in Texas was a bigger share of the vote than Democrats. When you have this scenario, it’s like … people have a choice between Yellow Cab and whatever, American Cab, and people say they want something else, and then somebody keeps saying, no, you’ve got to pick Yellow Cab or Ameri- can Cab, and the party solution is we’ll repaint the cab or we’ll put a stereo system in the cab, but people want Uber or Lyft. It’s like a bookstore or a hotel, where people want Amazon, or Airbnb, or Uber, and I think that’s what’s increasing and the parties are holding on, it’s like a utility monopoly, they are holding on, holding on, holding on, and hoping they can keep lasting. One of two things will happen. Either one of them will fundamentally change and adapt to where we are today, which I think is unlikely, or something else will arise that will give people another choice, that will either take the place of one of those, or force one of those in the market to adapt. I think we’re at that time. I think every other time we’ve talked about this it’s been about, let’s find us an independent candidate for president, and that never works.