World Population Prospects and Unmet Need for Family Planning Scott Moreland Ellen Smith Suneeta Sharma April 2010 Futures Group One Thomas Circle, NW Washington, DC 20005 United States of America Prepared with support from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Table of Contents Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................................ v Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................................ vi Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 3 I. Methodology ..................................................................................................................................... 4 II. Scenarios ........................................................................................................................................... 5 Assumptions: Demographic Parameters and Values ............................................................................ 7 Assumptions: Family Planning .............................................................................................................. 7 Results ......................................................................................................................................................... 12 III. Global Results.............................................................................................................................. 13 IV. Developing Countries .................................................................................................................. 17 V. Regional Projections ....................................................................................................................... 20 VI. Africa ........................................................................................................................................... 20 VII. Asia and the Near East ................................................................................................................ 23 VIII. India ............................................................................................................................................ 26 IX. Latin America and the Caribbean ................................................................................................ 29 X. Transition Countries ........................................................................................................................ 32 XI. United States ............................................................................................................................... 35 XII. Summary and Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 38 Appendix ..................................................................................................................................................... 41 P a g e | ii List of Figures Figure 1. Relationship between Unmet Need and CPR ................................................................................ 6 Figure 2. Global: Contraceptive Prevalence, Total Fertility, Population, and Cumulative Family Planning Cost ................................................................................................................................................ 15 Figure 3. Developing Countries: Contraceptive Prevalence, Total Fertility, Population, and Cumulative Family Planning Cost ...................................................................................................................... 18 Figure 4. Africa: Contraceptive Prevalence, Total Fertility, Population, and Cumulative Family Planning Cost ................................................................................................................................................ 21 Figure 5. Asia and the Near East: Contraceptive Prevalence, Total Fertility, Population, and Cumulative Family Planning Cost ...................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 6. India: Contraceptive Prevalence, Total Fertility, Population, and Cumulative Family Planning Cost ................................................................................................................................................ 27 Figure 7. Latin America and the Caribbean: Contraceptive Prevalence, Total Fertility, Population, and Cumulative Family Planning Cost ................................................................................................... 30 Figure 8. Transition Countries: Contraceptive Prevalence, Total Fertility, Population, and Cumulative Family Planning Cost ...................................................................................................................... 33 Figure 9. United States: Contraceptive Prevalence, Total Fertility, Population, and Cumulative Family Planning Cost ................................................................................................................................. 36 Figure 10. Global Population in 2050 under Four Scenarios ...................................................................... 40 Figure 11. Developing Countries: Population in 2050 under Four Scenarios ............................................. 40 P a g e | iii List of Tables Table 1. Changes in Percentage of Women in Union by Region ................................................................... 8 Table 2. Average Annual Change in the Percentage of All Users Who Use a Modern Method in Countries with More than One DHS by Region ................................................................................................ 9 Table 3. Average Family Planning Cost per User ........................................................................................ 10 Table 4. One-Year Cost of Contraceptives in the United States ................................................................. 10 Table 5. Average CPR and Unmet Need for Family Planning by Region and Years to Meet Unmet Need . 12 Table A 1: List of Countries Included in the Analysis ................................................................................. 41 Table A 2. CPR and Unmet Need ................................................................................................................. 42 Table A 3. Regression Results on Unmet Need ........................................................................................... 44 Table A 4. Regression Results for Percentage of Women in Union ............................................................ 44 Table A 5. Percentage of Women in Union, Ages 15–49 ............................................................................ 45 Table A 6. Method Effectiveness Assumptions ........................................................................................... 49 Table A 7. CPR Projections ......................................................................................................................... 50 Table A 8. Global Demographic Results ..................................................................................................... 53 Table A 9. Developing World Demographic Results ................................................................................... 53 Table A 10. Africa Demographic Results ..................................................................................................... 54 Table A 11. Asia and Near East Demographic Results ................................................................................ 54 Table A 12. India Demographic Results ...................................................................................................... 55 Table A 13. Latin America Demographic Results ........................................................................................ 55 Table A 14. Transition Countries Demographic Results .............................................................................. 56 Table A 15. United States Demographic Results ......................................................................................... 56 Table A 16. Cumulative Family Planning Costs ........................................................................................... 57 Table A 17. Present Value of Cumulative Family Planning Costs ................................................................ 59 Table A 18. Annual Family Planning Costs .................................................................................................. 61 P a g e | iv Abbreviations ANE Asia and the Near East CPR Contraceptive prevalence rate DHS Demographic and Health Survey LAC Latin America and the Caribbean TFR Total fertility rate UN United Nations UNAIDS Joint United Nations Programme for AIDS US United States WRA Women of reproductive age P a g e | v Acknowledgments This study has benefited from the efforts of many people. We would like to first acknowledge the assistance of Priya Emmart, Krishna Aditi, Elizabeth Miller, Manal El Fiki, and Sarah Staveteig, all of whom spent long hours helping to produce the projections presented in this report. We would also like to thank our colleagues