Wawa to West Chester Regional Rail Extension – Ridership Forecast November 2011 Wawa to West Chester Regional Rail Extension – Ridership Forecast November 2011 190 N Independence Mall West ACP Building, 8th Floor Philadelphia, PA 19106-1520 Phone: 215-592-1800 Fax: 215-592-9125 Website: www.dvrpc.org The Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission is dedicated to uniting the region’s elected officials, planning professionals, and the public with a common vision of making a great region even greater. Shaping the way we live, work, and play, DVRPC builds consensus on improving transportation, promoting smart growth, protecting the environment, and enhancing the economy. We serve a diverse region of nine counties: Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Philadelphia in Pennsylvania; and Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Mercer in New Jersey. DVRPC is the federally designated Metropolitan Planning Organization for the Greater Philadelphia Region – leading the way to a better future. The symbol in our logo is adapted from the official DVRPC seal and is designed as a stylized image of the Delaware Valley. The outer ring symbolizes the region as a whole while the diagonal bar signifies the Delaware River. The two adjoining crescents represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the State of New Jersey. DVRPC is funded by a variety of funding sources including federal grants from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and Federal Transit Administration (FTA), the Pennsylvania and New Jersey departments of transportation, as well as by DVRPC’s state and local member governments. The authors, however, are solely responsible for the findings and conclusions herein, which may not represent the official views or policies of the funding agencies. DVRPC fully complies with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and related statutes and regulations in all programs and activities. DVRPC’s website (www.dvrpc.org) may be translated into multiple languages. Publications and other public documents can be made available in alternative languages and formats, if requested. For more information, please call (215) 238-2871. On the cover: historical photograph of the West Chester Pennsylvania Railroad Station, Market Street, West Chester Borough, Chester County, PA (1930). Source: Historic American Buildings Survey from Library of Congress collection. Photocopy taken by Ned Goode, 1961. Accessed: http://www.loc.gov/pictures/item/PA0335/ Table of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 3 CHAPTER 2 Description of Study Area .................................................................................................................................. 5 Existing Highway Facilities and Volumes ............................................................................................... 7 Existing Transit Facilities and Volumes .................................................................................................. 7 Wawa Extension and Other Planned Transportation Improvements ................................................... 10 CHAPTER 3 Transit Alternatives .......................................................................................................................................... 13 No-Build Alternative .............................................................................................................................. 13 Build Alternative .................................................................................................................................... 13 CHAPTER 4 Forecasted Transit Ridership ........................................................................................................................... 17 No-Build Alternative .............................................................................................................................. 17 Build Alternatives .................................................................................................................................. 18 Uncertainty Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 23 Wawa to West Chester Regional Rail Extension – Ridership Forecast i Appendices APPENDIX A Travel Forecasting Procedures ...................................................................................................................... A–1 Travel Forecasting Procedures .......................................................................................................... A–3 Socioeconomic Projections ................................................................................................................ A–4 Transit Ridership Forecasting Model .................................................................................................. A–6 Model Calibration ................................................................................................................................ A–9 Model Runs and Ridership Evaluation ............................................................................................. A–13 APPENDIX B Build Alternative Schedules ........................................................................................................................... B–1 Build Alternative Schedules ................................................................................................................ B–3 Figures and Tables Figure 1. West Chester/Elwyn Line Historic Ridership Trends ....................................................................................... 4 Figure 2. Map of Study Area .......................................................................................................................................... 6 Figure 3. Study Area Bus Routes ................................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 4. Map of Build Alternatives............................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 5. Split TAZs and License Plate Surveys Data ............................................................................................... A–4 Figure 6. DVRPC Four-step Model Process .............................................................................................................. A–7 Table 1. Study Area MCDs ............................................................................................................................................. 5 Table 2. Volumes on Study Area Highway Facilities ...................................................................................................... 7 Table 3. Study Area Transit Routes ............................................................................................................................... 8 ii Wawa to West Chester Regional Rail Extension – Ridership Forecast Table 4. 2009 Regional Rail Parking Availability .......................................................................................................... 10 Table 5. Study Area Highway Improvements ............................................................................................................... 11 Table 6. Build Alternatives ............................................................................................................................................ 14 Table 7. 2035 No-Build Study Area Forecast ............................................................................................................... 18 Table 8. 2035 Build Alternative Forecasts .................................................................................................................... 19 Table 9. Effect of Downtown West Chester Station versus Traditional Station Location .............................................. 22 Table 10. SEPTA System Ridership Calibration ..................................................................................................... A–10 Table 11. Study Area Bus Ridership Calibration ..................................................................................................... A–11 Table 12. Study Area Regional Rail Ridership – Daily Boardings plus Alightings ................................................... A–12 Table 13.Transit Trip Length Validation ................................................................................................................... A–12 Table 14. Westbound Diesel Build Alternative Schedule to West Chester ................................................................ B–3 Table 15. Eastbound Diesel Build Alternative Schedule from West Chester ............................................................. B–4 Table 16. Westbound Electric Build Alternative Schedule to West Chester .............................................................. B–5 Table 17. Eastbound Electric Build Alternative Schedule from West Chester ........................................................... B–6 Wawa to West Chester Regional Rail Extension – Ridership Forecast iii Executive Summary This project, requested by Chester County and the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation