remote sensing Article Conversion of Agricultural Land for Urbanization Purposes: A Case Study of the Suburbs of the Capital of Warmia and Mazury, Poland Katarzyna Kocur-Bera * and Adrian Pszenny Institute of Geodesy and Civil Engineering, Faculty of Geoengineering, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, 10-720 Olsztyn, Poland; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 4 June 2020; Accepted: 15 July 2020; Published: 20 July 2020 Abstract: Population growth, economic globalization and the launch of market economy instruments have become the main triggers for processes related to the anthropogenization of space. According to Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) statistics, the developed area indication tripled in the last 25 years. Humans keep appropriating more natural and semi-natural areas, which entails specific social, economic and environmental consequences. Provisions in some countries’ laws and some economic factors encourage investors to engage in urbanization. The authors of this study noticed a research gap in the analysis of suburban areas in this topic. Our research aimed to analyze the conversion of plots of land used for agricultural purposes into urbanized land in the city’s suburban zone, in areas of high landscape and natural value. We focused on the analysis of geodetic and legal divisions of plots of land and analyzed the conditions of plots of land “ex ante” and “ex post” and the changes in their values. To achieve the research objective, we used Corine Land Cover (CLC) data for various time intervals, orthophotomaps (using the Web Map Service browsing service compliant with Open Geospatial Consortium standards), cadastral data, administrative decisions, data from the real estate market, spatial analyses and statistical modeling (linear, non-linear and stepwise regression). In general, the CLC data resolution enables analysis at regional or national levels. We used them innovatively at the local level because CLC data allowed us to notice the development of the area over time. Detailed research confirmed that, in the studied area, the conversion of agricultural land into developed areas results from economic factors. The division procedure increases the plot value by about 10%. However, the effects of uncontrolled urbanization, which we are currently dealing with, generate long term social and economic losses, difficulties in the labour market and may become a barrier to development. Keywords: land-use conversion; real estate division; plot division; suburbanization 1. Introduction The turn of the 21st century was a period of accelerated antropogenization of space, mostly related to the emergence of scattered suburban development [1]. This phenomenon is associated with the globalization of the economy, launching market economy instruments [2–4] and speculative pressure on real estate markets [5]. These ongoing changes may pose a threat to areas with special natural values [6–9], resulting in a decrease in the surface of semi-natural areas. According to Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) statistics, the average developed area factor has tripled over the last 25 years (see Figure1 for 40 countries in the world). Remote Sens. 2020, 12, 2325; doi:10.3390/rs12142325 www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing Remote Sens. 2020, 12, 2325 2 of 21 Remote Sens. 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 22 Figure 1. Average percentage increase in developed surface area between 1990 and 2014 in the 40 most Figuredeveloped 1. Average countries percentage of the world. increase Source: in developed own study [surface10]. area between 1990 and 2014 in the 40 most developed countries of the world. Source: own study [10]. According to Prus [11], changes in land use in Poland in the last two decades affected 2.4% of theAccording country’s surfaceto Prus area. [11], At changes such a changein land rate,use in 100Poland years, in approximately the last two decades 1/5 of Poland’s affected surface 2.4% of thearea country’s may change surface its area. land coverAt such type a change into non-agricultural rate, in 100 years, land. approximately Other post-socialist 1/5 of countries, Poland’s such surface as areaSlovakia may change [12] or its Belarus land [cover13], are type facing into a similarnon‐agricultural problem. land. Other post‐socialist countries, such Urbanization processes cause increased spatial changes [14] most often in the immediate vicinity as Slovakia [12] or Belarus [13], are facing a similar problem. and in the sphere of influence of an urban center. If transport infrastructure and public transport are Urbanization processes cause increased spatial changes [14] most often in the immediate vicinity sufficiently developed, rural areas adjacent to urban centers actively participate in the socio-economic and in the sphere of influence of an urban center. If transport infrastructure and public transport are life of the nearby city. As a result of the close cooperation of these areas, natural development processes sufficiently developed, rural areas adjacent to urban centers actively participate in the socio‐economic occur, which consist of reducing the dissonances between them and making villages more similar to life of the nearby city. As a result of the close cooperation of these areas, natural development towns and cities. This requires a targeted organization of space to harmoniously meet social, economic, processesfunctional, occur, environmental, which consist cultural, of reducing compositional the dissonances and aesthetic between needs. them The and less making it is controlled, villages e.g., more similarwith spatialto towns planning and ,cities. the more This damage requires it causesa targeted in the organization area. This is of related space to to issuing harmoniously development meet social,decisions economic, for almost functional, every site, environmental, which leads tocultural, its dispersion compositional and overwhelming and aesthetic urban needs. chaos The [15 –less17]. it is controlled,Scattered development e.g., with generatesspatial planning, further consequences, the more damage such as it chaos causes in transportin the area. 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Recent to a report years haveissued also by seen the another University problem of California, related Berkley, to the suburbanization 130 cities have disappeared of so‐called from “shrinking the world cities” map since (cities that2010 have [23 ].experienced These obstacles a notable do not deterpopulation potential loss), investors as a result from purchasing of which, agriculturalauthorities land face for problems conversion, with theas development they see it as aof business depopulated opportunity. urban There spaces are [22]. also According some positive to aspectsa report of issued suburbanization by the University [24], as it of California,allows for Berkley, the realization 130 cities of the have “dream disappeared of living infrom a suburban the world area” map [25 since], makes 2010 it possible [23]. These to purchase obstacles doland not atdeter lower potential prices than investors in city centers from purchasing [26] and avoid agricultural conurbation land zones for [27 conversion,]. Moreover, as citizens they see can it live as a a more secure life due to lower crime levels [28] and optimize real estate tax. The latter argument only business opportunity. There are also some positive aspects of suburbanization [24], as it allows for applies to economies where real estate tax is based on property value (market, rent, capital). This is the case the realization of the “dream of living in a suburban area” [25], makes it possible to purchase land at for most European countries, such as Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Sweden, Norway, etc. However, lower prices than in city centers [26] and avoid conurbation zones [27]. Moreover, citizens can live a there is a group of countries where taxation is still based on the area and use method, e.g., in Bulgaria, more secure life due to lower crime levels [28] and optimize real estate tax. The latter argument only the Czech Republic,