CONFLICT EMERGENCY RESPONSE FLOODS AND PREPAREDNESS DROUGHT PLAN 2021 ISSUED APRIL 2021 SOMALIA EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND PREPAREDNESS PLAN 2021 About This document is consolidated by OCHA on behalf of the Humanitarian Country Team and partners. The Humanitarian Response Plan is a presentation of the coordinated, strategic response devised by humanitarian agencies in order to meet the acute needs of people affected by the crisis. It is based on, and responds to, evidence of needs described in the Humanitarian Needs Overview. PHOTO ON COVER A young girl carries her brother through Bulo-Barde IDP camp, Baidoa, Somalia, Sunday, April 2, 2017. Photo credit: UNICEF/Mackenzie Knowles-Coursin. The designations employed and the presentation of material in the report do not imply the expres- sion of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. 02 EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND PREPAREDNESS PLAN 2021 Table of Contents 05 Strategic Summary 07 Country Information and Context Analysis 10 Risk Analysis and Planning Scenarios 11 Conflict/Violence Related Displacement 14 Bseasonal Floods (Flash and Riverine) 17 Drought Related Displacements 20 Summary of Planning Assumptions 21 Risk Monitoring 21 ERP Risk Monitoring Framework 21 Triggers and Thresholds 23 Existing Response and Operational Capacity 24 Operational Gaps and Constraints 25 Response Framework 25 Response Cycle 26 Principles for Decentralised Response 26 Minimum Response Package 26 Overall Response Strategy 26 Principles of Response 30 Response Monitoring And Reporting 30 Response Monitoring 30 Response Reporting and Advocacy 31 Coordination and Management Arrangements 32 Coordination with Government/Civil Society and National NGOs/Donors 33 Public Outreach and Advocacy 34 Operational Support Arrangements 34 Joint Needs Assessments 35 Supply Chain and Logistics 35 Humanitarian Access 36 Safety and Security 37 Preparedness Actions 37 Preparedness Actions 38 Funding Requirements 39 Preparedness Budget Requirements 41 Annexes 41 Annex A: Responsibility Assignment Tables for Decentralised Response 03 EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND PREPAREDNESS PLAN 2021 CDC VISIT, MOGADISHU People walk in an IDP settlement in Abudwaq, Somalia, on Saturday 4th May 2019. People have been displaced by issues of insecurity, food insecurity and lack of access to resources. 04 EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND PREPAREDNESS PLAN 2021 Strategic Summary Cyclical patterns of erratic weather conditions, climatic Efforts therefore need to be bolstered to provide causes of displacement, political instability and a rise communities access to sustainable and climate-re- in conflict — including due to the highly contentious silient water services. This means investing in short, election process and disputes over natural resources medium and long-term solutions that withstand climate (land, water, pasture) — have deepened Somalia’s shocks. To address the immediate lifesaving needs of protection crisis. affected populations, urgent and collective action is required to mitigate the worse impacts of the various Water challenges in Somalia oscillate between water shocks. Complementary to the 2021 Humanitarian shortages and drought-like conditions, and flash Response Plan, the Emergency Response and Prepar- floods and river breakages. As communities struggle edness (ERP) outlines detailed State-level response and to cope with the impact of COVID-19 and the desert preparedness contingency plans to operationalize and locust infestation in a context of protracted armed optimize the speed and volume of critical assistance conflict, insecurity and political instability, pre-drought delivered immediately after the trigger of an identified conditions seen across various parts of the country slow-onset or sudden-onset humanitarian of three key add an additional layer of complexity, further driving shocks: drought, conflict and flooding at both the State communities to adopt negative coping mechanisms. and Federal level. In the first quarter of 2021, more than 34 districts in Somalia were already facing devastating water short- ages, over 95,000 Somalis were displaced by drought- like conditions since December 2020, and at least 3.4 million people were projected to be affected by drought or drought-like conditions by year end, of whom around 380,000 are expected to be displaced due to drought- like conditions and dry season. The poor weather patterns are expected to continue due to La Niña conditions and a second consecutive season of below-average rainfall with below-average Gu rainfall season forecast from April to June. The impact of drought and livelihoods situation will be exacerbated by the continuation of the desert locust infestation which is forecast to continue spreading following reports of newly formed immature swarms breeding in the northern parts of the country. Progressively, wide- spread food security Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through September 2021. 05 EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND PREPAREDNESS PLAN 2021 TOTAL PREPAREDNESS BUDGET (US$) TOTAL PREPOSITIONING BUDGET (US$) TOTAL SUPPORT BUDGET (US$) TOTAL REQUIREMENTS (US$) $11.7M $26.6M $.8M $63.8M Estimated requirements by cluster (US$) CLUSTER/AOR PREPAREDNESS PREPOSITIONING SUPPORT TOTAL BUDGET BUDGET BUDGET REQUIREMENTS Water, Sanitation And $5.00 M $11.00 M $2.00 M $18.00 M Hygiene (WASH) Food Security - - - $17.01 M Shelter - $7.20 M $1.80 M $9.00 M Nutrition $1.15 M $2.75 M $0.69 M $4.59 M Protection: Gender Based $0.70 M $1.50 M $1.50 M $3.70 M Violence (GBV) AoR Education $1.91 M $1.23 M $0.38 M $3.53 M Protection: $1.00 M $1.07 M $0.90 M $2.97 M Child Protection AoR Health $0.63 M $1.32 M $0.07 M $2.02 M Protection $0.46 M - $0.67 M $1.13 M Logistics $0.28 M $0.35 M $0.02 M $0.65 M Protection: Housing, Land $0.34 M $0.09 M $0.11 M $0.54 M and Property (HLP) Camp Coordination and $0.09 M $0.06 M $0.28 M $0.43 M Camp Management (CCCM) Protection: Explosive $0.13 M $0.02 M $0.06 M $0.20 M Hazard (EH) AoR 06 EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND PREPAREDNESS PLAN 2021 Country Information and Context Analysis SCENARIOS 12.3M 28K 109.9K TOTAL POPULATION REFUGEES RETURNEES 258K 325K 380K people people people displaced due to displaced due to displaced due to conflict floods droughts 2.6M 9.7M INTERNALLY NON- DISPLACED DISPLACED 2.5K 363 #OF IDP SITES #OF PARTNERS ERP TARGET FOR FIRST LINE LIFE-SAVING RESPONSE CCCM EDUCATION FOOD SECURITY 5.9M PEOPLE IN NEED (2021) 2.6M 112 21K 258K FOOD INSECURITY IDP sites children people for CASH (JAN-JUN 2021) assistance 2.6M 9.7M HEALTH LOGISTICS NUTRITION INTERNALLY NON- DISPLACED DISPLACED 2.2M 0.4M IPC 3 IPC 4 47K 38+ 18K people for health partners to children services, support preparedness for 1000 AWD/Chol- 8K era cases PLWs 4M PROTECTION SHELTER/NFI WASH PEOPLE TARGETED (2021) 850K CHIDREN UNDER 5 ACUTELY MALNOURISHED (SEP 2020-AUG 2021) 200K 60K 125K people for people with people for water 1.6M 2.4M protection NFI kits trucking within INTERNALLY NON- 143K support 1 week DISPLACED DISPLACED SEVERELY MALNOURISHED 07 EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND PREPAREDNESS PLAN 2021 Somalia’s prolonged humanitarian crisis is charac- or riverine floods, especially along Juba and Shabelle terised by ongoing armed conflict, climate shocks river. Across Somalia, flooding in 2020 caused the including floods and drought, communicable disease displacement of 919,000 people, as well as the destruc- outbreaks and weak socio-economic conditions. In tion of infrastructure, property and 144,000 hectares the past year, three additional shocks: desert locust of agricultural fields . Possible recession of La Niña infestation, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and conditions after April 2021 may cause similar flash intensive flooding coupled with the depreciation of floods and riverine floods in Hirshabelle, South West the Somali Shilling have contributed to a deterioration State and Jubaland causing large scale displacements. of humanitarian conditions across the country. As Additionally, conflict and insecurity displaced 242,000 a result of these drivers of humanitarian needs, the Somalis in 2020. overall number of People in Need (PiN) has consistently increased over the last three years from 4.2 million Over the past decade, humanitarian partners in Somalia people in 2019 to 5.2 million in 2020 and 5.9 million have launched Flood Response Plans in response to in 2021. This is further reflected in the numbers of large scale displacements due to floods and in 2016- displacements in 2020 where Somalia recorded the 2017 launched a Drought Response Plan in response highest number of displacements over the past three to severe drought. The 2021 Emergency Response Plan years with 1.2 million people displaced, compared to (ERP) aims to structure, optimise the speed and volume 569,000 in 2018 and 770,000 in 2019. of critical assistance delivered immediately after the onset of a humanitarian emergency in Somalia such as Intensified climatic shocks such as drought and floods in instances of drought, armed conflict/violence and/or coupled with ongoing armed conflict and insecurity flash floods via pre-planning and preparedness. Further- is expected to drive further sporadic and large-scale more, this ERP is contextualized and “fit for purpose” displacement in 2021. The latest Fews Net report in to emergencies in Somalia and enables decentralised March 2021 forecasts below-average Gu rainfall from life-saving first-line response to emergencies in Somalia April to June, which means that Somalia would face a to optimize use of resources and improve response second consecutive season of below-average rainfall. timeliness. However, on the other hand, there is still risk of flash KARASHARKA IDP SETTLELEMENT Amina Saleban,35 left her home in Sanaag five years ago and moved to Karasharka IDP settlement where lives with her 3 children.