2018 State of Populism in Europe The past few years have seen a surge in the public support of populist, Eurosceptical and radical parties throughout almost the entire European Union. In several countries, their popularity matches or even exceeds the level of public support of the centre-left. Even though the centre-left parties, think tanks and researchers are aware of this challenge, there is still more OF POPULISM IN EUROPE – 2018 STATE that could be done in this fi eld. There is occasional research on individual populist parties in some countries, but there is no regular overview – updated every year – how the popularity of populist parties changes in the EU Member States, where new parties appear and old ones disappear. That is the reason why FEPS and Policy Solutions have launched this series of yearbooks, entitled “State of Populism in Europe”. *** FEPS is the fi rst progressive political foundation established at the European level. Created in 2007 and co-fi nanced by the European Parliament, it aims at establishing an intellectual crossroad between social democracy and the European project. Policy Solutions is a progressive political research institute based in Budapest. Among the pre-eminent areas of its research are the investigation of how the quality of democracy evolves, the analysis of factors driving populism, and election research. Contributors : Tamás BOROS, Maria FREITAS, Gergely LAKI, Ernst STETTER STATE OF POPULISM Tamás BOROS IN EUROPE Maria FREITAS • This book is edited by FEPS with the fi nancial support of the European Parliament Gergely LAKI Ernst STETTER • ISBN number 978-2-930769-20-2 STATE OF POPULISM IN EUROPE Published by: FEPS – Foundation for European Progressive Studies Rue Montoyer 40, 4th floor – 1000 Brussels, Belgium T: +32 2 234 69 00 Email: [email protected] Website: www.feps-europe.eu Policy Solutions Révay utca 10 – 1065 Budapest, Hungary T: +36 1 4 748 748 Email: [email protected] Website: www.policysolutions.eu Copyright: FEPS and Policy Solutions, December 2018 ISBN: 978-2-930769-21-9 Responsible editors: Ernst STETTER, FEPS Secretary General Tamás BOROS, Co-Director of Policy Solutions Maria FREITAS, FEPS Senior Policy Advisor Authors: Tamás BOROS, Gergely LAKI Consultant and proofreading: Gábor GYŐRI Page layout and printing: Ferling Ltd. – Hungary This study does not represent the collective views of FEPS and Policy Solutions. The responsibility of FEPS and Policy Solutions is limited to approving the publication as worthy of consideration of the European progressive movement. With the financial support of the European Parliament. This report does not represent the European Parliament’s views but only of the respective authors. Table of Contents Preface ........................................................................................................................6 Trends in European populism in 2018 ..............................................................8 Austria ..................................................................................................................... 14 Belgium ................................................................................................................... 18 Bulgaria ................................................................................................................... 22 Croatia ...................................................................................................................... 28 Cyprus ...................................................................................................................... 32 Czech Republic ...................................................................................................... 36 Denmark ................................................................................................................. 40 Estonia ..................................................................................................................... 44 Finland ..................................................................................................................... 48 France ...................................................................................................................... 52 Germany .................................................................................................................. 56 Greece ...................................................................................................................... 60 Hungary ................................................................................................................... 64 Ireland ...................................................................................................................... 70 Italy ........................................................................................................................... 74 Latvia ........................................................................................................................ 80 Lithuania ................................................................................................................. 84 Luxembourg ........................................................................................................... 88 Malta ........................................................................................................................ 92 The Netherlands ................................................................................................... 94 Poland ....................................................................................................................100 Portugal .................................................................................................................106 Romania ................................................................................................................110 Slovakia .................................................................................................................112 Slovenia .................................................................................................................118 Spain .......................................................................................................................122 Sweden ..................................................................................................................128 United Kingdom ..................................................................................................132 Preface 2018 was the year of biding our time in European politics. After months of negotiations, it was still not clear what would happen with the United Kingdom, how – if at all – it would leave the European Union. Citizens still perceive that no stable solutions were proposed for the grand challenges facing the European Union, from the deepening of monetary integration over the joint management of refugee affairs all the way to the principles that will define the coming budget cycle. The intensifying struggle between progressive and populist parties appears to have come to a stalemate. While in Italy and Hungary the populists scored decisive electoral victories, in Sweden and Luxembourg pro-European forces – centre-left in the former and centre-right in the latter – prevailed. Support for the EU reached a record high in 2018 – but so is the rejection of refugees and immigrants in many of the EU’s Member States. On account of the improving European economic indicators, many thought that populist appeal would be declining among Europeans in 2018. Yet the upward economic indicators, the record low unemployment and the absence of a major crisis – the emergence of a Pax Europa of sorts – still proved insufficient in steering voters back to the centre-right and centre-left parties. The positive economic environment most likely did play a role in halting further landslide changes in terms of electoral support towards populist parties. At the same time, the nostalgia for the Europe of the 1980s and 1990s continues to predominate among the voters of European populists. They are yearning for the stability and predictability of those times, the job security, the strong role of the state as a protector and provider. Voters of populist parties want change that will turn the world back to this old “order”. Moreover, the impact of the series of terrorist acts in Europe, the refugee crisis in 2015, and the growing social disparities also continue to exert an impact, and most importantly so the populist forces’ campaigns based on these issues. What has not changed since 2015, however, is that at the end of the year FEPS and Policy Solutions once again evaluated what kind of an impact populist parties had over the past 12 months on European politics. FEPS and Policy Solutions have tracked the policies and popularity of over 80 populist parties in 2018 and we analysed the trends that have emerged. We have also evaluated the issues that these parties introduced into the public debates in each of the EU countries and assessed these parties’ activities during election campaigns. We have continuously updated a unique database called Populism Tracker on the FEPS Progressive Post website, and we have shared numerous analyses with readers who are interested in these issues. This volume presents our work over the last year, reviewing the trends and the most important activities of populist parties in the 28 EU countries, and we outline how their popularity evolved over this period – almost like an encyclopaedia. Our goal is to learn in finer detail