Study No. 146 May 2015 CANADIAN ENERGY RIBBONS OF STEEL: RESEARCH LINKING CANADA’S ECONOMIC FUTURE INSTITUTE Canadian Energy Research Institute | Relevant • Independent • Objective RIBBONS OF STEEL: LINKING CANADA’S ECONOMIC FUTURE Ribbons of Steel: Linking Canada’s Economic Future Authors: Peter Howard Paul Kralovic* Martin Slagorsky ISBN 1-927037-31-7 Copyright © Canadian Energy Research Institute, 2015 Sections of this study may be reproduced in magazines and newspapers with acknowledgement to the Canadian Energy Research Institute May 2015 Printed in Canada Front Photo Courtesy of Paul Kralovic Acknowledgements: The authors of this report would like to extend their thanks and sincere gratitude to all CERI staff that provided insightful comments and essential data inputs required for the completion of this report, as well as those involved in the production, reviewing, and editing of the material, including but not limited to Allan Fogwill and Megan Murphy *Paul Kralovic is Director of Calgary-based Frontline Economics Inc. ABOUT THE CANADIAN ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and environmental issues to benefit business, government, academia and the public. We strive to build bridges between scholarship and policy, combining the insights of scientific research, economic analysis, and practical experience. For more information about CERI, visit www.ceri.ca CANADIAN ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW Calgary, Alberta T2L 2A6 Email: [email protected] Phone: 403-282-1231 Ribbons of Steel: Linking Canada’s Economic Future iii Table of Contents LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................. v LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................ vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................... ix CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2 BACKGROUND ........................................................................................... 3 Canadian National (CN) ...................................................................................................... 10 Canadian Pacific (CP) .......................................................................................................... 18 CHAPTER 3 RAIL MOVEMENTS IN CANADA ................................................................. 25 Methodology and Assumptions ......................................................................................... 25 Rail Movements of Commodities by Province ................................................................... 27 British Columbia – All Commodities (Tonnes) ............................................................. 30 British Columbia – All Commodities (Railcars) ............................................................. 31 British Columbia – Aggregated Commodities (Tonnes) ............................................... 32 British Columbia – Aggregated Commodities (Railcars) .............................................. 33 Alberta – All Commodities (Tonnes) ............................................................................ 34 Alberta – All Commodities (Railcars) ........................................................................... 35 Alberta – Aggregated Commodities (Tonnes) ............................................................. 36 Alberta – Aggregated Commodities (Railcars) ............................................................. 37 Saskatchewan – All Commodities (Tonnes) ................................................................. 38 Saskatchewan – All Commodities (Railcars) ................................................................ 39 Saskatchewan – Aggregated Commodities (Tonnes) .................................................. 40 Saskatchewan – Aggregated Commodities (Railcars) .................................................. 41 Manitoba – All Commodities (Tonnes) ........................................................................ 42 Manitoba – All Commodities (Railcars) ....................................................................... 43 Manitoba – Aggregated Commodities (Tonnes) .......................................................... 44 Manitoba – Aggregated Commodities (Railcars) ......................................................... 45 Ontario – All Commodities (Tonnes) ........................................................................... 46 Ontario – All Commodities (Railcars) ........................................................................... 47 Ontario – Aggregated Commodities (Tonnes) ............................................................. 48 Ontario – Aggregated Commodities (Railcars) ............................................................ 49 Québec – All Commodities (Tonnes) ........................................................................... 50 Québec – All Commodities (Railcars) ........................................................................... 51 Québec – Aggregated Commodities (Tonnes) ............................................................. 52 Québec – Aggregated Commodities (Railcars) ............................................................ 53 Atlantic Region – All Commodities (Tonnes) ............................................................... 54 Atlantic Region – All Commodities (Railcars) ............................................................... 55 Atlantic Region – Aggregated Commodities (Tonnes) ................................................. 56 Atlantic Region – Aggregated Commodities (Railcars) ................................................ 57 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 58 May 2015 iv Canadian Energy Research Institute Rail Movements – Western Canada .................................................................................. 58 Rail Movements – Eastern Canada .................................................................................... 60 CHAPTER 4 POTENTIAL RAIL TRAFFIC MOVEMENTS IN THE FUTURE ............................ 63 Methodology and Assumptions ......................................................................................... 63 Rail Traffic Forecasts by Province ...................................................................................... 66 Rail Traffic Forecast for British Columbia .................................................................... 67 Rail Traffic Forecast for Alberta ................................................................................... 68 Rail Traffic Forecast for Saskatchewan ........................................................................ 69 Rail Traffic Forecast for Manitoba ............................................................................... 70 Rail Traffic Forecast for Ontario ................................................................................... 71 Rail Traffic Forecast for Québec................................................................................... 72 Rail Traffic Forecast for the Atlantic Region ................................................................ 67 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 74 Rail Traffic Forecast for Western Canada .......................................................................... 74 Rail Traffic Forecast for Eastern Canada ............................................................................ 76 APPENDIX A COMMODITIES AND AGGREGATED COMMODITY GROUPS........................ 79 APPENDIX B RAIL SAFETY IN CANADA........................................................................... 83 APPENDIX C RAILWAY SAFETY MEASURES IN CANADA ................................................. 89 Key Legislation ................................................................................................................... 89 Various Safety Measures ................................................................................................... 93 May 2015 Ribbons of Steel: Linking Canada’s Economic Future v List of Figures 2.1 Class 1 Railroads in North America ............................................................................... 4 2.2 Rail Crossings in North America .................................................................................... 6 2.3 A CP Intermodal Train .................................................................................................. 7 2.4 Railcars by Type ........................................................................................................... 8 2.5 Map of CN’s Rail Network ............................................................................................ 11 2.6 CN’s Athabasca Northern Railway Network in the Fort McMurray Area .................... 13 2.7 CN’s Access to Alberta’s Industrial Heartland ............................................................. 14 2.8 CN’s Illinois Central and Chicago Central Route Maps ...............................................