For Monday, 9 September 2019 PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA SEKURITAS MORNING DEW Member of Indonesia Stock Exchange AGRI BSIC CONS FINC INFR MINE MISC PPTY TRDE MFTG 1,341.65 908.80 2,359.23 1,257.41 1,190.06 1,691.59 1,194.83 487.16 814.13 1,531.16 -8.09 -0.60% 15.28 1.71% -1.14 -0.05% 3.26 0.26% -16.99 -1.41% 13.88 0.83% 7.42 0.62% -8.85 -1.78% 0.30 0.04% 8.59 0.56% STOCK INDEX CLOSE Chg %Chg FOCUS JCI 6,308.95 2 0.03% FOREX RESERVES IN AUGUST SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LQ-45 988.78 3 0.26% Bank Indonesia (BI) recorded the position of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves in IDX30 541.39 2 0.30% August 2019 of US $ 126.4 billion, a slight increase compared to the position in July 2019 DJIA 26,797.46 69 0.26% of US $ 125.9 billion. This achievement was also the highest achievement since February Nasdaq 8,103.07 (14) -0.17% 2018 of US $ 128.1 billion. The foreign exchange reserves were equivalent to financing 7.4 S&P 500 2,978.72 3 0.09% months of imports or 7.1 months of imports and payment of government foreign debt, Nikkei 21,199.57 114 0.54% Hang Seng 26,690.76 175 0.66% and were above the international adequacy standard of around 3 months of imports. BI considered the foreign exchange reserves to be quite positive amid the pressures that TRADING STATISTICS have taken place in the financial markets, mainly due to the role of the tariff increase of Trading Volume (m shares) 14,436 Trading Value (b IDR) 8,675 goods from China to the U.S. Where this condition triggers investors' anxiety about an Trading Frequency (in times) 526,010 economic recession, which leads to an outflow of investment in safe haven instruments Fgn Net Trade Value (b IDR) (354) such as the US Dollar, Yen and Gold. YTD Fgn Net Trade Value (b IDR) 57,465 The increase in foreign exchange reserves in August 2019 was mainly influenced by oil and CMDTY & CCY CLOSE %Chg gas foreign exchange receipts and other foreign exchange receipts. Going forward, BI WTI 56.55 0.52% views that foreign exchange reserves remain adequate supported by stability and a Brent (Oct'18) 61.53 1.10% favorable economic outlook. Gold (Dec'18) 1,515.43 -0.17% Coal (USD/MT) 69.60 -0.03% Figure 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves (in US$ Billions) Copper (US$/lb.) 2.62 -0.08% Nickel (US$/MT) 17,743.00 -1.55% CPO (MYR/MT) 2,353.00 -0.34% USDIDR 14,140.00 -0.09% MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS Last Prv BI 7-Day RR 5.50% 5.75% Inflation Rate (June 19) 2.83% 3.32% GDP (2Q19) 5.07% 5.18% 10-yr Govt Bond 7.32% 7.32% Sources: BI, MPIS Research For Monday, 9 September 2019 PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA SEKURITAS MORNING DEW Member of Indonesia Stock Exchange MARKET RECAP JCI ended slightly higher by +2.1 points or +0.03% to 6,308.9. The rate cut by the Fed at FOMC meeting at 17&18 September, while transaction volume reached 14.4B shares with value amounting China's stimulus plan helped ease some concerns around global Rp8.7T. Foreign investors posted a net sell of Rp353.9 billion, bringing growth. The Dow rose 0.26% to 26,797.46, the S&P 500 gained 0.09%, the cumulative YTD net foreign buy to Rp57.5B. at 2,978.72 and the Nasdaq was down 0.17% at 8,103.07 Four sectors weakened: property (-1.78%), infrastructure (-1.41%), U.S Treasury yield ended slightly lower, pushing prices higher as the agriculture (-0.60%), and consumer goods (-0.05%). Meanwhile, the investor grappled with the mixed-signal on interest rate cut decision top gaining sectors were basic industry (+1.71%) and mining by the Fed. The benchmark 10-year notes gained 4/32 to yield 1.55%. (+0.83%). Stocks supporting JCI performance were HMSP (+2.3%), 30-year bonds were up 28/32, yielding 2.02%. Two-year notes up by BRPT (+7.5%), and BBRI (+1.2%). In contrast, TLKM (-2.5%), POLL (- 1/32 to yield 1.53%. 19.0%), and UNVR (-2.0%) weighed down JCI. Oil prices slightly up as the EIA data showed a third-straight weekly U.S. NEWS decline in U.S. crude inventories, declined by 4.8 million barrels for U.S. major stocks indexes closed slightly higher, as investor weighed the week ended Aug. 30 and followed by two consecutive weekly the latest U.S. jobs report for August (added 130,000 jobs in August, declines in the oil-rig count. Brent rose +0.95% to $61.53/barrel, WTI below the consensus expectation by 173,000 jobs) and bet on interest up by +0.44% to $56.55/barrel. NEWS FROM THE MARKET INDUSTRY UPDATE COMPANY UPDATE ANOTHER CULLING ROUND FOR POULTRY PLAYERS KMTR SYNDICATION FUND FOR WORKING CAPITAL AND Ministry of agriculture recorded that the poultry demand potential of REFINANCING 2019 is 3.25M tons (279.98 ton/month) which is higher than the PT Kirana Megatara Tbk. (KMTR) will utilize syndication fund, which is production potential of broiler chicken at 3.83M tons (319.14 part of the extension of 2016 credit facility, for both working capital ton/month) or there is 17.77% surplus potential this year. However, (US$ 180M) and refinancing (US$ 25M) of its subsidiaries. The the realization as of 8M19 is 2.33M tons (291.76 tons/month); thus, working capital utilization will last from 2019 to 2021. As of 1H19, the the surplus is 7.29% of national demand. According to ministry of company revenue went down by 3.33% Y/Y to Rp5.01T. While the agriculture, at that number, the surplus is ideal for food reserve. bottom line slipped even greater by 7.24% Y/Y to Rp48.02B. However, Nevertheless, based on the circulating letter dated 2 September 2019, the company is still optimistic to reach its FY net profit target at there will be removing hatching egg of 19 days old and giving away Rp100B. This year capex has been absorbed around 70-80% out in hatching egg in the waiting room as CSR as ways to cut the DOC FS 1H19 out of total Rp120B. The 2019 capex source is internal cash and production. Thus, independent farmer can enjoy more stable ASP the allocation will be for Medan and Lampung plants completion as according to Permendag No 96 Year 2018. So far, the livebird price in well as machinery maintenance. The expected operation of both farmer's level is between Rp 11,000-17,000, while the market price is plants will be in 2H19, and they will add extra capacity of 72,000- much higher between Rp 30,000-35,000. The government also urges 80,000 tons per year. Now, the annual production capacity of KMTR is the poultry players to maximize the slaughtering capacity and keep at 760,000 tons. minimum 30% of the production in the cold storage. Furthermore, they also instruct the integrator to make DOC FS production planning. For Monday, 9 September 2019 PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA SEKURITAS MORNING DEW Member of Indonesia Stock Exchange WSKT TO ISSUE BONDS WORTH RP3.5T PT Waskita Karya Tbk (WSKT) is to offer its Shelf Registration I Phase I POLL ABSORBED 60% OF THIS YEAR’S CAPEX ALLOCATION Bonds 2019 worth Rp3.5T maximum. The bonds were divided into 2 PT Pollux Properti Indonesia Tbk (POLL) has absorbed Rp720 billion parts: Series A with 3-year tenor and Series B with 5-year tenor. or around 60% of its allocated capital expenditure this year which was Pefindo affirms idA- rating for the bonds, which will be used for civil mostly used to fund superblock projects, namely Chadstone in Bekasi buildings and 500 KV transmission construction working capital. and Meisterstadt in Batam, and other projects. The superblock consists of apartment, shopping mall, and shophouses. This year, BNII ISSUED TWO SERIES NCD TOTALLING RP 380B POLL aims to increase revenue by 113% (Y/Y) to Rp1.98 trillion. PT Bank Maybank Indonesia Tbk (BNII) issued two series Negotiable Nonetheless, as of 1H19, the Company has only reached 20% of the Certificate of Deposit (NCD) i.e. series A with a principal amount of target or around Rp400 billion.or investment credit still has huge Rp40B, 6.5% discount rate, and maturity date 6 March 2020 (6 potential especially for subsidized houses and projects with TOD months) and series B with a principal amount of Rp 340B, 6.75% concept. discount rate, with 12 month maturity at 6 September 2020. The electronic distribution was at 6 September 2019. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK JCI is POSITIVE with expected range of 6,290-6,370 JCI was closed higher to 6,308. We see that the JCI formed ascending triangle pattern, which indicates continuation could happen. Resistance hangs at 6,340/400 and support lays at 6,160/020. MACD is still in positive side, while at the same time, RSI flatten and stochastic crossed up and still signaling up. EMA 5&20 forming golden cross pattern along with Parabolic Stop and Reversal green dot still appears. In our view, JCI may be positive. For Monday, 9 September 2019 PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA SEKURITAS MORNING DEW Member of Indonesia Stock Exchange SUMMARY OF STOCK PICKS ENTRY TARGET CUTOFF RISK-TO- TEMPORARY GAINS / TICKER SUPPORT RESISTANCE LAST PRICE STATUS POINT PRICE PRICE REWARD PTS % ACES 1,650 1,850 1,700 1,900 1,500 1.00 1,745 45 2.65% BUY BJBR 1,470 1,650 1,500 1,650 1,455 0.30 1,525 25 1.67% BUY BTEK 71 91 82 90 60 2.75 71 (11) -13.41% HOLD LINK 3,800 4,250 4,000 4,500 3,750 0.50 4,050 50 1.25% HOLD PPRE 340 390 350 390 320 0.75 340 (10) -2.86% HOLD Data & Agenda ECONOMIC CALENDAR Economic Indicator Period Date Time (WIB) Prv.