Techno-economic analysis of wind farm repowering strategies in France Sébastien Michaud Master of Science Thesis KTH School of Industrial Engineering and Management Energy Technology: TRITA-ITM-EX 2019:450 Division of Heat & Power Technology SE-100 44 STOCKHOLM -i- Master of Science Thesis in Energy Technology TRITA-ITM-EX 2019:450 Techno-economic analysis of wind farm repowering strategies in France Sébastien Michaud Approved Examiner Supervisor 2019-06-18 Miroslav Petrov - KTH/ITM/EGI Miroslav Petrov Commissioner Contact person Voltalia, France Clément Lainé Abstract French wind farms are aging. By 2025, the French Environment & Energy Management Agency estimates that 1 GW per year of operating wind turbines will reach their expected lifetime. The handling of wind turbines end of life is relatively new to wind farm owners, both technically and economically. New aspects to handle appear, such as dismantling, strategies of maintenance for the last years of living or again the repowered wind farm construction timing. This work aims at giving an overview of the volume France is going to have to handle in the coming years and how to handle it. The report gives insights for the main questions’ developers should ask themselves when they start thinking about the repowering of their assets. Those insights are based upon what is permitted by the current regulation, which will certainly evolve with the growing experience authorities will soon acquire. From those insights, different strategies will emerge, some more attractive from a technical point a view, but more difficult to set up in agreement with the regulation, common sense, and acceptance of local population. The goal will be to find the best balance between technical feasibility and aimed improvement. Those strategies can then be studied from an economical point of view to try to find the optimum rate of return. This profitability is not unique for a chosen technical scenario but can be optimized. An economic analysis tool will be set up. This tool can perform sensitivity analysis on a scenario, accepting as inputs the parameters that have the most influence on the results. Finally, a concrete application is given on an old and still operating wind farm. This shows one methodology that can be followed when thinking of repowering. There is, of course, multiple available solutions. The goal of this work is to provide developers with all the tools to perform a quick, efficient and accurate analysis of their repowering. -ii- SAMMANFATTNING Franska vindkraftparker åldras snabbt. Framemot år 2025 har Ademe (den Franska motsvarigheten till Energimyndigheten) beräknat att 1 GW per år av vindkraftverk blir redo att demonteras. Hanteringen av vindturbinernas avverkning ställer nya utmaningar till vindkraftsägarna, både tekniska och ekonomiska. Examensarbetet härmed redovisar för viktiga punkter som behöver hanteras när en vindpark nått sin livslängd, såsom demontering, underhållsstrategier för de flera sista driftåren eller det optimala valet av strategier för ombyggnation och installation av nya turbiner. Detta arbete ger en översikt över den volym som Frankrike kommer att behöva hantera under de närmaste åren och hur man skulle kunna gå tillväga. Rapporten svarar på de viktigaste frågorna som kommer upp när utvecklare börjar tänka på ”repowering”, d.v.s. ersättning av de uttjänta vindturbinerna med nya turbiner. Dessa insikter bygger på vad som tillåts enligt den nuvarande förordningen, som säkert kommer att förändras med myndigheternas växande kunskap om läget. Från dessa insikter kommer olika strategier att komma upp, några mer attraktiva från en teknisk synpunkt, men svårare att upprätta i överensstämmelse med förordningen, sunt förnuft och acceptans av lokalbefolkningen. Målet är att hitta den bästa balansen mellan teknisk genomförbarhet och riktad förbättring. Dessa strategier studeras sedan ur en ekonomisk synvinkel för att försöka hitta den bästa avkastningen. Denna lönsamhet är inte unik för ett valt tekniskt scenario men kan optimeras. Ett ekonomiskt analysverktyg kommer att skapas. Detta verktyg kan utföra känslighetsanalys i ett scenario, med som input de parametrar som har störst inverkan på resultaten. Slutligen ges en konkret tillämpning på en gammal och fortfarande fungerande vindkraftpark. Detta visar en metod som kan följas när man tänker på repowering. Det finns naturligtvis flera tillgängliga lösningar. Målet med detta arbete är att ge utvecklare alla verktyg för att utföra en snabb, effektiv och korrekt analys av deras repowering. -iii- Contents 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................. 1 2 ASSESSMENT OF THE FRENCH WIND MARKET .............................................................. 2 2.1 Operating Technologies.............................................................................................................. 2 2.2 Potential market of repowering ................................................................................................. 6 3 REPOWERING CONCERNS......................................................................................................... 8 3.1 Administrative concerns ............................................................................................................. 8 3.1.1 Dismantling .......................................................................................................................... 8 3.1.2 Possible repowering scenarios and relative jurisdiction – 5 scenarios ......................... 9 3.1.3 Remuneration of wind power .......................................................................................... 11 3.1.4 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 11 3.2 Technical concerns .................................................................................................................... 11 3.2.1 O&M strategies .................................................................................................................. 11 3.2.2 Vertical dismantling........................................................................................................... 13 3.2.3 Horizontal dismantling ..................................................................................................... 15 3.2.4 Turbine after-life ................................................................................................................ 16 3.2.5 Building the new wind farm ............................................................................................. 19 3.3 Social concerns ........................................................................................................................... 24 3.4 Possible strategies for wind repowering ................................................................................. 26 4 DECISION HELP TOOLS ............................................................................................................ 28 4.1 Dismantling costs calculation tool .......................................................................................... 28 4.2 Main tool indicator .................................................................................................................... 29 4.3 Main tool setup .......................................................................................................................... 29 4.3.1 Final tool ............................................................................................................................. 29 4.3.2 Previous versions of the tool ........................................................................................... 33 5 PRACTICAL STUDY: REPOWERING of LAURAGAIS WIND FARM – TECHNO- ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS ..................................................................................................... 39 5.1 Model input data ........................................................................................................................ 39 5.1.1 Project overview ................................................................................................................ 39 5.1.2 Possible strategies for repowering .................................................................................. 41 5.2 Economic analysis – 7 wind turbines repowering scenario ................................................. 49 5.2.1 Broad economic analysis .................................................................................................. 49 5.2.2 Detailed economic analysis .............................................................................................. 52 5.2.3 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 53 -iv- 5.3 Further work guidelines ............................................................................................................ 53 6 GENERAL CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................... 54 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................................... 55 7 APPENDICES................................................................................................................................... 56 7.1 Appendix 1 – Expected volumes of materials coming from the wind