Urban Air Mobility Market Study Colleen Reiche, Ph.D., Booz Allen Hamilton Rohit Goyal, Booz Allen Hamilton Adam Cohen, University of California, Berkeley Jacqueline Serrao, J.D., Booz Allen Hamilton Shawn Kimmel, Ph.D., Booz Allen Hamilton Chris Fernando, Booz Allen Hamilton Susan Shaheen, Ph.D., University of California, Berkeley November 21, 2018 SUBMITTED TO: National Aeronautics and Space Administration Attn: Nancy Mendonca Jonnelle Goff SUBMITTED BY: Booz Allen Hamilton 8283 Greensboro Drive McLean, VA 22102 Contract Number: BPA No. NNH13CH54Z TIN: 36-2513626 DUNS: 00-692-8857 CAGE: 17038 doi:10.7922/G2ZS2TRG Acknowledgments The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) generously funded and made this research possible. The authors give special thanks to the members of the strategic advisory group for their role in supporting this research. We also thank Dr. Philippe Bonnefoy of BlueSky and Dr. Sarah Nilsson of Embry–Riddle Aeronautical University for their help in the development of this market study. The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily indicate sponsor acceptance. Aeronautical Systems Services in Support of NASA Headquarters, Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................. 6 2.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 8 3.0 APPROACH ...................................................................................................................................... 8 4.0 STRATEGIC ADVISORY GROUP (SAG): STRUCTURE AND ROLE ............................................. 9 5.0 FOCUS MARKETS ......................................................................................................................... 10 6.0 FOCUS URBAN AREAS ................................................................................................................. 14 7.0 LEGAL AND REGULATORY ASSESSMENT ................................................................................ 20 7.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................ 20 7.2 Legal and Regulatory Barriers .................................................................................................... 20 7.3 State and Local Regulatory Arena .............................................................................................. 22 7.4 International Regulations ............................................................................................................ 25 7.5 Airworthiness Certification Standards and Regulations .............................................................. 27 7.6 Legal and Regulatory Summary.................................................................................................. 44 8.0 SOCIETAL BARRIERS ................................................................................................................... 46 8.1 Literature Review ........................................................................................................................ 47 8.2 Focus Groups .............................................................................................................................. 50 8.3 General Population Survey ......................................................................................................... 58 8.4 Societal Barriers Summary ......................................................................................................... 72 9.0 WEATHER BARRIERS ................................................................................................................... 75 9.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................ 75 9.2 Results ........................................................................................................................................ 79 9.3 Weather Barriers Summary ......................................................................................................... 82 10.0 AIRPORT SHUTTLE AND AIR TAXI MARKET ANALYSIS ........................................................... 84 10.1 Design Mission and ConOps ....................................................................................................... 84 10.2 Key Operations Related Assumptions ........................................................................................ 86 10.3 Price per passenger mile ............................................................................................................ 87 10.4 Market Size and Value ................................................................................................................ 93 10.5 Potential Externalities .................................................................................................................. 97 10.6 Scenarios .................................................................................................................................. 100 10.7 Airport Shuttle and Air Taxi Analysis Summary ........................................................................ 103 11.0 AIR AMBULANCE ......................................................................................................................... 105 11.1 Ambulance Mission and Scoping .............................................................................................. 107 11.2 Current Rotary Wing Market ..................................................................................................... 109 11.3 Air Ambulance Mission and Assumptions ................................................................................. 110 11.4 Cost per Transport .................................................................................................................... 111 11.5 Scenarios: Revised ConOps and Battery Swapping................................................................. 113 11.6 RW Market Size Capture .......................................................................................................... 114 11.7 Air Ambulance Market Summary .............................................................................................. 117 12.0 LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................... 118 13.0 APPENDIX .................................................................................................................................... 120 Appendix 1 – Societal Barriers (General Population Survey) ............................................................... 120 Appendix 2 – Weather Analysis ............................................................................................................ 138 Appendix 3 – Market Analysis ............................................................................................................... 145 i Aeronautical Systems Services in Support of NASA Headquarters, Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Overview of key challenges by market maturity and technology ................................................... 7 Figure 2: High Level Approach for Urban Air Mobility market analysis ........................................................ 8 Figure 3: SAG Member institution type ......................................................................................................... 9 Figure 4: Market selection criteria ............................................................................................................... 12 Figure 5: Definition of Urban Areas and promise of Urban Air Mobility ...................................................... 14 Figure 6: Urban Area Selection Process ..................................................................................................... 15 Figure 7: Weather Impacts .......................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 8: Focus Urban Areas ...................................................................................................................... 18 Figure 9: Trade-off between risk tolerance and level of certification rigor with FAA certification categories .................................................................................................................................................................... 29 Figure 10: NATO STANAG level of certification rigor increases with lower risk acceptance ..................... 29 Figure 11: International UAS regulatory field (Cuerno-Rejado, 2010) ........................................................ 30 Figure 12: Comparison for FAA and EASA Regulatory Framework Independence Metric ........................ 32 Figure 13: Paths to FAA airworthiness certification .................................................................................... 34 Figure 14: Range of certification approaches for hybrid fixed wing and rotary aircraft .............................. 35 Figure 15: The type design approval process ............................................................................................. 36 Figure 16: Part 21.17(b) certification process ............................................................................................