ACCARNSI DISCUSSION PAPER – NODE 2 URBAN MANAGEMENT, TRANSPORT AND SOCIAL INCLUSION Population Distribution, Migration and Climate Change in Australia: An Exploration Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow, Professor of Geography, and Director of the Australian Population and Migration Research Centre, The University of Adelaide December 2011 Revised March 2012 This paper was motivated by the Australian Federal Government climate change adaptation initiatives. The author is a member of the Australian Climate Change Adaptation Research Network for Settlements and Infrastructure (ACCARNSI), one of eight networks within the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF). - i - LIST OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 1 HISTORICAL TRENDS IN AUSTRALIAN POPULATION GROWTH ............................. 2 THE CONTEMPORARY DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND OUTLOOK ..................... 6 POPULATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN AUSTRALIA ......................................... 12 CONTEMPORARY POPULATION DISTRIBUTION ....................................................... 15 RECENT POPULATION DYNAMICS INFLUENCING POPULATION DISTRIBUTION .......................................................................................................... 22 SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AUSTRALIA ............................................................................................................... 30 POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON POPULATION DISTRIBUTION ......................................... 59 CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................................... 80 REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................... 84 ACCARNSI Discussion Paper Q – December 2011 - ii - LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Australia: Estimates of Indigenous Population, 1788-2010 ........................... 2 Table 2: Australia: Main Projection Series ................................................................... 8 Table 3: Population Density 2006 ................................................................................ 20 Table 4: Australia: Population Change by Remoteness Area, 1996-2010 .................. 22 Table 5: Australia: Distribution of Overseas-Born Between Capital Cities and Rest of State, 2001 and 2006 ......................................................................... 23 Table 6: Estimated Components of Population Change in Mainland State Capital City Statistical Divisions, 2001-06 (in ‘000s) ................................... 23 Table 7: Australia: Statistical Divisions by Total Population, Net Migration (International and Internal) Estimates and Natural Increase, 2001-06 .......... 24 Table 8: Australia Statistical Divisions: Major Sinks and Sources of Net Internal Migration, 2001-06 ........................................................................... 25 Table 9: Australia: Distribution of Overseas-Born Between Capital Cities and Rest of State, 2001 and 2006 ......................................................................... 29 Table 10: The Mismatch Between Water and Population ............................................. 30 Table 11: Australia: Population Growth in Long-Term Rainfall Trend Areas, 2001-06 .......................................................................................................... 32 Table 12: Average Number of Days per Year Above 35C at Selected Sites for the ‘Current’ Climate (Average for 1971-2000), and for 2030 and 2070 ...... 35 Table 13: New South Wales: Projected Decline in Primary Production Due to Climate Change, 2030-50 .............................................................................. 50 Table 14: Australia: Climate Change Hot Spot Areas by SEIFA Index, 2006 ............. 53 ACCARNSI Discussion Paper Q – December 2011 - iii - Table 15: Australia: Climate Change Hot Spot Areas – Percentage of Households Earning Under $500 per Week and $650 per Week (Gross), 2006.................................................................................................. 53 Table 16: Australia: Climate Change Hot Spot Areas – Percentage Employed in Primary Industries, 2006 ................................................................................ 54 Table 17: Australia: Climate Change Hot Spot Areas – Average Household Size, 2006................................................................................................................ 55 Table 18: Australia: Climate Change Hot Spot Areas – Percentage of Lone Person Households, 2006 ............................................................................... 55 Table 19: Australia: Climate Change Hot Spot Areas – Percentage of Population Who Own or Are Purchasing Their Home, 2006 .......................................... 56 Table 20: Australia: Birthplace Composition of Hot Spot of Climate Change Impact, 2006 .................................................................................................. 57 Table 21: Australia: Climate Change Hot Spot Areas – Percentage of Population Identifying as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander Decent, 2006 ........... 58 Table 22: Australia: Climate Change Hot Spot Areas, 2006 – Percentage of the Population Aged 65 Years and Over ............................................................. 58 Table 23: Australia: Growth of the Urban and Rural Population, 1947-2006 ............... 60 Table 24: Views of Australian Government Regarding Spatial Distribution, 1976-2009 ...................................................................................................... 61 Table 25: The Maximum Permissible Population of Australia, Limited by Water Potentially Available ...................................................................................... 70 Table 26: Australia: Coastal, Non-Coastal and Capital City Statistical Divisions, Average Annual Growth Rates and Percent of National Population, 2001, 2006 and 2010 ...................................................................................... 74 ACCARNSI Discussion Paper Q – December 2011 - iv - Table 27: Dynamics of Population Change in East, Southeast and Southwest Non-Metropolitan Coastal SDs, 2001-06 ...................................................... 74 Table 28: Australia Statistical Divisions: Major Sinks and Sources of Net Internal Migration, 2001-06 ........................................................................... 76 Table 29: Spencer Gulf LGAs, 2006: Percentage of Dwellings Unoccupied, 2006................................................................................................................ 79 ACCARNSI Discussion Paper Q – December 2011 - v - LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Australia: Growth of the Population, Year Ending 31 December, 1792-2009 ........................................................................................................ 3 Figure 2: Australia: Life Expectancy at Birth, 1870-2010 ............................................. 4 Figure 3: Total Fertility Rate Australia, 1860-2010 ........................................................ 5 Figure 4: Australia: Natural Increase and Net Migration, 1860-2011............................ 6 Figure 5: Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, 1947-2011 .......................................................... 9 Figure 6: Australia: Age-Sex Structure of the Population, June 2009 ......................... 10 Figure 7: Structural Ageing: Australia: Change by Age: 2006-11; 2031 (Series B) ....................................................................................................... 11 Figure 8: Australia: Centre of Gravity of Population, 1861-2010 ................................ 16 Figure 9: Australia: Changing Distribution of the Population Between Urban and Rural Sectors, 1921-2006 ........................................................................ 17 Figure 10: Australia: Distribution of the Total Population, 2006 .................................. 19 Figure 11: Population Density, 2011 ............................................................................... 20 Figure 12: Australia: Population Change in Country Towns, 2001-06 .......................... 21 Figure 13: Australia: Major Internal Migration Flows Between States ......................... 27 Figure 14: Australia by Statistical Divisions: Net Migration Between Statistical Divisions, 2001-06 ......................................................................................... 28 Figure 15: Australia: Internal Migration Between States, 2006-09 ............................... 28 Figure 16: Trend in Annual Total Rainfall, 1960-2009 .................................................. 31 ACCARNSI Discussion Paper Q – December 2011 - vi - Figure 17: Best Estimate (50th) Percentile of the Change in Average Temperature (C) Over Land by 2030 for A1B Emission Scenario for Summer, Autumn, Winter, Spring and Annual ............................................................. 33 Figure 18: Best Estimate (50th Percentiles) of Projected Change of Annual Mean Temperature (C) for 2030 (left column), 2050 (middle) and 2070 (right) ............................................................................................................. 34 Figure 19: Best Estimate (50th) Percentile of the Projected Change of Australian Precipitation