Beneath the Numbers An exploration of the increases of recorded Domestic Abuse and Sexual Offences MOPAC Evidence and Insight 1 Executive Summary Both domestic abuse and sexual offending represent substantial volumes of recorded crime and demands on the Metropolitan Police Service (MPS) and one that has been increasing over recent years. Within the Mayor’s Police and Crime Plan1 2017-2021, a specific commitment was made in relation to understanding the increases seen in these recorded crimes. Analysis was conducted across a range of data sources. To explore what is beneath the recorded numbers, we have gathered information from a variety of sources – but we have primarily utilised Metropolitan Police Service recorded crime data and Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) data published by Office for National Statistics (ONS) to drive our insights. Our main findings indicate: Has there been an increase in these crimes? • The two primary data sources related to domestic abuse and sexual offences contradict each other in terms of any potential increase. Police recorded offences have significantly increased over time, whilst prevalence as measured by CSEW shows little change • Levels of recorded Domestic abuse and sexual offences across Police Forces in England and Wales has increased in recent years • Prevalence estimates using London level CSEW data indicates that the number of recorded crimes is well below the potential number of victims per year • Wards which are more vulnerable to community stability issues, as per the Vulnerable Localities Profile, experience higher levels of recorded domestic abuse than less vulnerable areas • There are no statistical correlations between population density and volumes of offending for either sexual offending or domestic abuse across the capital • Following the publication of HMICFRS Crime Data Integrity reports in 2014, there was an increase in the levels of recorded violence and sexual offences – two areas that were found to have been previously under-recorded by police across England and Wales Are these increases due to better police recording? • Following the launch of Operation Yewtree there was a slight increase in overall recorded sexual offences 1 https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/mopac_police_and_crime_plan_2017-2021.pdf 2 • However, there was a clear increase in the number of historic sexual offences coming to the attention of the police following the launch of Operation Yewtree with historic offences recorded by police have increased by 134% over five years • The addition of previously non-notifiable offences such as malicious communications has had a clear impact on recorded domestic abuse • There has been a reduction in the level of ‘no-criming’ of rape offences and a slight increase for other sexual offences with the impact of ‘no-criming’ deemed to be negligible • Younger adult victims appear under-represented in the police data when compared to CSEW estimates • According to CSEW estimates, 1 in 8 single adult women living with children were victims of domestic abuse in the preceding 12 months to the survey compared with 6.4% of those living in a household with no children • For sexual assaults, women who were separated or divorced (7.7%) were the most likely to be victims • There are clear indications that vulnerabilities such as long-term illness or disability and low-income impact on the likelihood of victimisation Is there evidence that victims are more willing to come forward to the police? • Based on the most reliable information from the CSEW, there is no compelling evidence of an increase in victim confidence to report • For domestic abuse and sexual offences, the level of response to CSEW that indicates that people have told police remains consistent over time, with a slight reduction in the case of domestic abuse in the most recent results • Reasons for not reporting are complex and often linked to the seriousness of the offence or the relationship with the offender This report is the culmination of an analytic exercise exploring the increases in police recorded crime for both domestic abuse and sexual offences. Whilst it is not possible to infer causality, the weight of evidence provided by the premises we have highlighted allows us to infer that increases in recorded crime can be primarily attributed to increased compliance with crime data integrity. It is hoped that this analysis and research can drive further insights into the evidence base and inform decision making across London. 3 Introduction The Mayor’s Police and Crime Plan 2017-2021 (PCP) brought with it a specific focus on the victims of recorded crime – and more so those who are most vulnerable. Within the PCP both domestic abuse and sexual offences were the focus of considerable attention, with an additional focus on these crimes also being bolstered by the publication of the Mayor’s Violence Against Women and Girls Strategy 2018-2021. “(MOPAC will) commission specific work to look beneath reported crime statistics for rape and sexual and domestic violence and abuse so that we can say with much greater certainty what changes in figures mean" That is - can we explore these increases in recorded crime and seek to understand what is driving them. This essentially boils down to three questions. Has there been an increase in these crimes occurring? Are these increases due to better police recording? Is there evidence that victims are more willing to come forward to the police? This report explores each of these. Methodology The cross-government definition describes domestic abuse as any incident or pattern of incidents of controlling, coercive, threatening behaviour, violence or abuse between those aged 16 or over who are, or have been, intimate partners or family members regardless of gender or sexuality. The abuse can encompass, but is not limited to: • psychological • physical • sexual • financial • emotional This definition was updated to include coercive behaviour (December 2015) and the recognition that victims of this type of abuse may be aged under 18. Therefore, from April 2013 the way these offences are recorded includes victims aged 16 and above2. Sexual offences, as recorded by police, covers a range of different crime types. These range in severity from non-consensual crimes such as rape or sexual assault involving physical contact, crimes specifically against children including sexual abuse or grooming, and crimes that exploit others. The offences are broadly recorded into two groups: 2 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/domestic-violence-and-abuse 4 • Rape – “A person ‘A’ commits an offence if (a) he intentionally penetrates the vagina, anus or mouth of another person ‘B’ with his penis, (b) ‘B’ does not consent to the penetration, and (c) ‘A’ does not reasonably believe that ‘B’ consents." The classifications of rape recorded by police vary dependent on the gender and age of the victim. • Other Sexual Offences – This is a much broader crime grouping incorporating offences such as contact sexual assaults (various classifications based on age/gender), grooming, sexual activity with a child, child sexual exploitation, abuse of position of trust of a sexual nature, exposure and voyeurism. We have gathered information from a variety of sources – but we have primarily utilised police recorded crime data and Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) data published by Office for National Statistics (ONS) to drive our insights. These are the two primary sources of information related to crime available to us – with each adding to our understanding. It is widely reported that information recorded and held by police can only provide a partial picture of the level of crime experienced by the public. This is particularly the case for domestic abuse and sexual offences where it is believed there is a high level of under- reporting to police. Police recorded crimes are also prone to changes in recording practice and legislation as well as the propensity of victims to come forward. Even with the understanding of the caveats of such data, it does allow us to glean valuable insights in relation to the demands these crimes have on police. The Home Office Counting Rules (HOCR) for recorded crime provides a national standard for the recording and counting of ‘notifiable’ offences recorded by police across England and Wales. The vision of these rules is that all police forces have a consistent approach that delivers accurate statistics that can be trusted by the public and puts the needs of victims at the core. The purpose3 of the HOCR is: • ensure that victims of crime receive the service they expect and deserve; • prioritise effective investigation of crime in keeping with national standards and the College of Policing’s Code of Ethics; • inform the public of the scale, scope and risk of crime in their local communities; • allow Police and Crime Commissioners, Police Forces and local partners to build intelligence on crime and criminal behaviour necessary for an efficient and effective response; 3 Vision and Purpose Statements for Crime Recording (NCRS and HOCR) – Home Office https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/387762/count- vision-december-2014.pdf 5 • enable Government, PCCs, Forces and their partners to understand the extent of demands made on them and the associated costs of service delivery; and • inform the development of Government policy to reduce crime and to establish whether those policies are effective. The CSEW is a longstanding survey across many crime and justice topics covering approximately 32,000 individuals across England and Wales – although has a far smaller sample at the London level. Information on domestic abuse and sexual offences in CSEW is collected through self-completion modules on tablet computers and face to face interviews. This source is hugely beneficial in covering and identifying crimes that are not reported to the police. The CSEW is a reliable source of estimated prevalence and the consistency in methodology remains unaffected by changes in recording practices, police activity or the propensity of victims to report such crimes to the police.