UNCLASSIFIED September 12, 2007 D E P A R T Iraq Weekly M E N T Status Report O F September 12, 2007 S T Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs A US Department of State T E 1 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED September 12, 2007 Table of Contents This report provides weekly updates in the eight key areas identified as pillars D of U.S. government policy for victory in Iraq. E SECTION SLIDE P Highlights 3 A 1. Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgents R 5 T 2. Transition Iraq to Security Self-Reliance 10 M 3. Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic 13 E Government N T 4. Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential 15 Services O 5. Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy F 20 6. Help Iraq Strengthen the Rule of Law and Promote Civil Rights 28 S 7. Increase International Support for Iraq 29 T 8. Strengthen Public Understanding of Coalition Efforts and A 32 T Public Isolation of the Insurgents E Sources and Contact Information 33 Notes and Source Citations 34 2 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED September 12, 2007 Highlights 1. Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgents D The overall number of security incidents in Iraq has declined in eight of the past 12 E weeks, with the number of incidents in the last two weeks at the lowest levels seen P since June 2006. A 2. Transition Iraq to Security Self-Reliance R Nearly 140 Iraqi Army, National Police and Special Operations Forces battalions are T conducting security operations, with about 95 of those capable of taking the lead in M operations with some Coalition support. E 3. Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic Government N Hours before congressional hearings on the progress of the U.S. military buildup, Iraqi T Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki addressed the Council of Representatives, saying security had improved dramatically in the capital and Iraq was moving away from civil war. O Maliki gave an optimistic assessment of his country's progress since the U.S. military buildup began in February, noting security gains had been made across Iraq, insisting F his forces needed more time to take over full security responsibility from Coalition forces. S 4. Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential Services T Maliki agreed to dedicate $50 million to control the spread of cholera. The chief A inspector for the Ministry of Health, Dr. Adel Mohsen, denied September 6 that the T disease has spread to Iraq’s central and southern provinces. According to Dr. Mohsen, E cholera has not spread any further than Sulaimaniya and Kirkuk. 3 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED September 12, 2007 Highlights 5. Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy D Speaking in Baghdad, U.S. Coordinator for Economic Transition Charles Ries said that Iraq’s E economy is likely to grow more than 6% in 2007, and if the oil sector is taken out, will likely be P more than 7%. Ries said that the economy is underperforming, though, due to an inadequate supply of electricity, weakness in the oil sector, capacity constraints, and a lack of foreign and A private investment. R 6. Help Iraq Strengthen the Rule of Law T President Jalal Talabani said September 7 during a press conference in Sulaymaniyah that he M would not sign the execution order of a top Saddam aide whom he personally had “provoked” E to rebel against the executed dictator. If the approval of his three-member presidency is sought N by the Iraqi supreme court, Talabani said he would refuse to sign the order of Sultan Hashim T al-Tai, (senior officer who became defense minister during Saddam’s regime). 7. International Support for Iraq O Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s spokesman said the general approach of the U.S. and the United Kingdom was entirely consistent and that decisions on troop levels would be based on F conditions on the ground and the assessment of the military. Brown had “very cordial and constructive” talks with President Bush September 10. S 8. Strengthen Public Understanding of Coalition Efforts and Public Isolation of the T Insurgents A An insurgent group in Iraq posted a videotape September 10 that showed a German hostage T who has been held for more than six months and threatened to kill him unless Germany E withdrew its troops from Afghanistan within ten days. 4 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED September 12, 2007 [1.] Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgency General Petraeus’s Situational Report to Congress: D • General David Petraeus, the commanding general of Multi-National Force-Iraq presented E a situational assessment on Iraqi security to Congress September 10-11. General P Petraeus informed Congress that military objectives are, in large measure, being met. A • The overall number of security incidents in Iraq has declined in eight of the past 12 R weeks, with the number of incidents in the last two weeks at the lowest levels seen since T June 2006. M • Civilian deaths of all categories have declined by over 45% Iraq-wide since the height of E the sectarian violence in December 2006 and declined by 70% in Baghdad. N • Iraq-wide, the number of ethno-sectarian deaths has come down by over 55% since T December 2006 and by 80% in Baghdad. • Coalition forces (CF) and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have found and cleared over 4,400 O weapons caches so far this year; nearly 1,700 more than the number discovered all of F last year. • In the last eight months, CF and ISF have neutralized five media cells, detained the S senior Iraqi leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, and killed or captured nearly 100 other key leaders T and 2,500 rank-and-file fighters. A • In the last six months, CF and ISF have targeted Shia militia extremists, capturing a T number of senior leaders and fighters, as well as the deputy commander of Lebanese E Hezbollah Department 2800. 5 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED September 12, 2007 [1.] Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgency D E P A R T M E N T O F S T A T E 6 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED September 12, 2007 [1.] Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgency D E P A R T M E N T O F S T A T E 7 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED September 12, 2007 [1.] Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgency D E P A R T M E N T O F S T A T E 8 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED September 12, 2007 [1.] Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgency D E P A R T M E N T O F S T A T E 9 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED September 12, 2007 [2.] Transition to Security Self-Reliance – Iraqi Security Forces General Petraeus’s Remarks on Iraqi Security Forces: D • General David Petraeus, the commander of Multi-National Force-Iraq, presented an E assessment on Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) to Congress September 10-11. He P reported that ISF continue to grow, develop their capabilities, and shoulder more of A the burden of providing security for their country. Despite concerns about sectarian R influence, inadequate logistics and supporting institutions, as well as an insufficient T number of qualified commissioned and noncommissioned officers, Iraqi units are M engaged around the country. E N • Nearly 140 Iraqi Army, National Police and Special Operations Forces battalions T are conducting security operations, with about 95 of those capable of taking the lead in operations, albeit with some coalition support. O • 445,000 individuals are currently on the payrolls of Iraq’s Interior and Defense F Ministries. • Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has decided to increase the number of ISF further by S the end of this year, possibly by as much as 40,000. T A T E 10 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED September 12, 2007 [2.] Transition to Security Self-Reliance – Iraqi Security Forces D E P A R T M E N T O F S T A T E 11 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED September 12, 2007 [2.] Transition Iraq to Security Self-Reliance – Iraqi Security Forces D Ministry of Interior Forces Ministry of Defense Forces E TRAINED & COMPONENT P EQUIPPED COMPONENT OPERATIONAL A POLICE ~135,000 R ARMY ~163,500*** NATIONAL ~ 26,300 T POLICE AIR FORCE ~900 M OTHER MOI NAVY ~1,100 ~32,900 E FORCES TOTAL ~165,500** N TOTAL ~194,200* T Total Trained & Equipped ISF: O F ~359,700**** S * Ministry of Interior Forces: Unauthorized absence personnel are included in these numbers T ** Ministry of Defense Forces: Unauthorized absence personnel are not included in these numbers A *** Army numbers include Special Operations Forces and Support Forces T **** Does not include the approximately 144,000 Facilities Protection Service personnel working in 27 E ministries Latest Data Available 12 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED September 12, 2007 [3.] Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic Government Iraqi Prime Minister Says Civil War Prevented in Iraq: D • Hours before congressional hearings on the progress of the U.S. military buildup, E Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki addressed the Council of Representatives, saying P security had improved dramatically in the capital and Iraq was moving away from A civil war. Maliki gave an optimistic assessment of his country's progress since the R U.S. military buildup began in February, noting security gains had been made T across Iraq, insisting his forces needed more time to take over full security M responsibility from Coalition forces. E N Sadr Movement Says May Pull Out of Iraqi Coalition: T • The political movement loyal to cleric Muqtada al-Sadr said it may pull out of Iraq's O ruling Shia coalition unless the government improves security and makes political F progress.