WESTERN AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION 2013 ANALYSIS OF RESULTS by Antony Green for the Western Australian Parliamentary Library and Information Services Election Papers Series No. 1/2013 2013 Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, without the prior written consent from the Librarian, Western Australian Parliamentary Library, other than by Members of the Western Australian Parliament in the course of their official duties. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Western Australian Parliamentary Library. Western Australian Parliamentary Library Parliament House Harvest Terrace Perth WA 6000 ISBN 978-0-9875969-0-1 May 2013 Related Publications 2011 Redistribution Western Australia – Analysis of Final Electoral Boundaries by Antony Green. Election paper series 1/2011. Western Australian State Election 2008 Analysis of Results by Antony Green. Election paper series 1/2009. 2007 Electoral Distribution Western Australia: Analysis of Final Boundaries Election papers series 2/2007 Western Australian State Election 2005 - Analysis of Results by Antony Green. Election papers series 2/2005. 2003 Electoral Distribution Western Australia: Analysis of Final Boundaries Election papers series 2/2003. Western Australian State Elections 2001 by Antony Green. Election papers series 2/2001. Western Australian State Elections 1996 by Antony Green. Election papers series 1/2001. 2013 WESTERN AUSTRALIAN ELECTION 9 March 2013 Analysis of Results CONTENTS Page Introduction 1 Legislative Assembly Summary of First Preference Votes 5 Detail of Result by Electoral Division 8 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results 20 Regional Summaries 26 Summary of Preference Distributions 28 Legislative Council Summary of First Preference Votes and Region Totals 31 Detail of Result by Region 34 Upper and Lower House Vote Comparisons 48 New and Departing Members 52 Summary of Redistribution 54 Legislative Assembly By-elections 2008-2013 57 Legislative Council Casual Vacancies 2008-2013 57 Symbols .. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting member + Sitting member switching chamber .... ‘Ghost’ candidate, where a party contesting the previous election did not nominate for the current election Party Abbreviations ACP Australian Christians (formerly Christian Democratic Party) ALP Australian Labor Party CDP Christian Democrat Party (only contested by-elections) CEC Citizens Electoral Council (only contested by-elections FFP Family First GRN The Greens IND Independents LIB Liberal Party NAT The Nationals OTH Others SFP Shooters and Fishers - Unaffiliated candidates Important Dates Issue of Writs 6 February 2013 Close of Rolls 14 February 2013 Close of Nominations 15 February 2013 Lodgement of Council Ticket Votes 18 February 2013 Polling Day 9 March 2013 Close of Receipt for Postal Votes 14 March 2013 Writ Returned 5 April 2013 2013 Western Australian Election INTRODUCTION This paper provides a summary of the 2013 Western Australian election. It contains details of voting for all Legislative Assembly districts and Legislative Council regions, as well as relevant summary statistics for both chambers. The 2013 election was the first held following the introduction of fixed date elections. It was conducted on new electoral boundaries, though the number of members in both chambers, as well as the distribution of electorates between Perth and non-metropolitan areas, remained unchanged. Format for Legislative Assembly Results. For each Legislative Assembly district, details of the first preference votes and percentages received by each candidate are provided, as well as the final count after the distribution of preferences. Where appropriate, an alternative two-party preferred count is included. The format of the results is as follows: First Count: The total of first preferences for each candidate is shown, with the candidate’s percentages calculated by dividing the first preference vote by the formal vote. Swing is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by the party at the 2008 election from the percentage received at the 2013 election. Where the parties contesting the district differ from the 2008 election, ‘ghost’ candidates (indicated by ‘...’) have been included to represent candidates not contesting the current election. All results from 2008 have been adjusted to take account of the redistribution. Final Count: Represents the two-candidate preferred count after the full distribution of preferences. Ballot papers that did not include a preference choosing between the final two candidates are included in the total for ‘Exhausted’ votes. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote for each candidate by the total votes remaining in the count that is the formal vote minus the exhausted votes. Two-candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the results of the 2008 election adjusted for the redistribution. Where the party composition of the final two candidates differs from the 2008 election (e.g. Kalgoorlie), ghost candidates appear and three swing figures are shown. 2-Party Preferred: This total appears in electorates that did not finish as a contest between Labor and Liberal candidates. It shows the alternate two-party preferred count between Labor and Liberal candidates, as well as change in percentage vote since the 2008 election. Two-Candidate Preferred versus Two-Party Preferred Results The two-candidate preferred count for an electorate is defined as the final tally after the formal distribution of preferences, which is conducted by the successive exclusion of the lowest polling candidates and re-examination of their ballot papers to determine the next valid preference. The two- party preferred count represents a similar distribution of preferences, but at all stages retains the final two candidates as representatives of the Labor and Liberal Parties. In 49 of the 59 Legislative Assembly electorates, the final two-candidate preferred was a also the two- party preferred count between Labor and Liberal candidates. In eight electorates the final two- candidate preferred count was between Liberal and National candidates (Central Wheatbelt, Eyre, Geraldton, Kalgoorlie, Moore, North West Coastal, Wagin, Warren-Blackwood), one finished as a Labor-National contest (Pilbara) while Kwinana was a contest between Labor and an Independent candidate. In these ten electorates, the Electoral Commission conducted a second distribution of preferences between Labor and Liberal candidates to produce a two-party preferred count. This included an extra count in Pilbara, where the Labor-National finish could have been used as the two-party preferred, as it was at the 2008 election. 1 2013 Western Australian Election Throughout this publication, the Labor-Liberal count for Pilbara has been used as the two-party preferred total, but appropriate reference is given to the Labor-National finish and how this compares with the 2008 election result. In 2008 the WAEC did not conduct this second count in Pilbara and the Labor-National count was used as the two-party preferred total. In the analysis of two-party preferred totals beginning on page 20, an alternate state wide two-party preferred is provided using the Labor-National count in Pilbara. At various points in this publication, both margins against Labor are used for Pilbara, with relevant references included in notes. Defining Holding Parties and Sitting Members The party status of the three electorates listed below has been modified to take account of by- elections, changes in party affiliation and the redistribution. • Fremantle was won by Labor at the 2008 election, but lost to Green candidate Adele Carles at a May 2009 by-election. Carles became an Independent in May 2010 and re-contested the 2013 election as an Independent. Fremantle has been classed as Independent held. • Morley was won by Liberal candidate Ian Britza in 2008, but the redistribution turned his seat into a notional Labor seat. Britza contested the 2013 election, is shown as a sitting member and was re-elected, but the seat has been classed as notionally Labor held and listed as a Liberal gain. • North West was won for Labor by Vince Catania at the 2008 election. In July 2009 he left Labor and joined the Nationals. The redistribution subsequently re-named the seat North West Central, the new boundaries also notionally overturning the Labor majority. North West Central has been classified as National held based on Catania being the sitting member. North West Central was one of four electorates with a new name at the 2013 election. The other three electorates to change name were Mindarie (formerly Butler), Nollamara (Mirrabooka) and Blackwood- Stirling (Warren-Blackwood). Given these changes, the starting point of party holdings for the 2013 election was Labor 27 (losing Fremantle and North West Central, gaining Morley), Liberal 23 (losing Morley), Nationals five (gaining North West Central) and Independents four (gaining Fremantle). All sitting members of the Legislative Assembly are indicated with ‘*’. This includes Ian Britza in Morley, and Brendon Grylls is also listed as a sitting member despite leaving Central Wheatbelt and contesting the Labor-held electorate of Pilbara. A summary of defeated and newly elected members for both the Assembly and the Council is provided