56 Trade The Dynamics and Anticipated Impact of Ke- References Elections Dispatch NO.6 Over the period 2003 to 2008, the value of exports was on an upward trend nya’s 2012-2013 General Elections on the December 2012 (Figure 2.6). Exports grew by about 8.6 in 2007. In 2008, growth in the Region Recommendations and Conclusions Andreassen, T. Barasa, T. Kibua and Tostensen, A. (2008), A„I ISSN 2012-2006 value of exports significantly declined to 8.7 per cent from 31.0 per cent The demons and wounds that the 2007-2008 post-election violence still acted under a lot of pressure‰ Proceedings of Annual NORDEM It is evident that the election violence impacts business and the economy in 2006 mainly due to a decline in re-exports and the effects of the post- remain and require urgent remedial actions to be treated. There have Conference The disputed 2007 Kenyan general election in context, The Impact of Election (2007/2008) Violence on Kenya’s negatively and industry, economists and Kenyans, are anticipating that the Elections Dispatch No.6 Oslo, University of Oslo, Norwegian Centre for Human Rights, 1 election violence. Earnings from total exports financed 45.4 per cent of been attempts at transforming the state towards good governance and next presidential and general elections takes in a different environment; (NORDEM). Economy : Lessons Learned? the import bill in 2008 compared with 48.1 per cent in 2005 (G0K, 2008). with over just over I/2 of the provisions of Kenya constitution 2010 having politics. In this respect, since the chaos of 2007/8 there has been some KenyaÊs composition of exports has remained broadly the same over the meaningful socio-economic progress as numbers indicate, however, Dr. Kiti Reginah M.K Kitiabi (PhD)2 been implemented to create checks and balances that would help avoid Delloitte (2012) years; it is still dominantly an exporter of agricultural goods with food and Kenya: Economic Outlook 2011, Delloitte Budget the confusion and mistakes made in 2007/2008. However, KenyaÊs next ethnicity continues to be prioritized in the political domain with beverages, consumer goods and lubricants being the key exports (Figure review, Nairobi: Delloitte. Introduction Presidential elections will be held in an environment heavy with real widespread corruption and impunity still well entrenched. 2.6). It should be noted that most of KenyaÊs exports (tea, coffee, meat and n analysis of KenyaÊs economy in 2010/2011 reveals that growth after the elections, with foreign direct investment dropping anxiety and uncertainty than in 2007/2008, this situation according to There is no doubt that there is a need for concerted efforts from both Getzel, C. (2000). The Politics of Independent Kenya, 196368. cereals) depend on intensive labour, road, air and sea transport, all of which AReal GDP expanded by 5.6% in 2010, compared to a growth to $183 million in 2008 following the post-election chaos is still to market analysts, could easily attract violence (Delloitte, 2012) the civil society and the private sector to lobby for a positive course Nairobi: East Africa Publishing House stabilize five years later and we are yet to reach that level of economic suffered serious setback due to the violence. Not to mention the losses of 2.6 % in 2009 and a real GDP of 7.1 % in 2007. It also shows in order to create awareness amongst the local citizens and ensure the growth again, despite the relative stabilization of the economy. The experienced by transit transporters from and to land-locked countries of The intention to change the constitutional provisions to suit parliamentarians that all sectors of the economy recorded positive growths of varying Government of Kenya (GOK) (2011). Economic Survey 2011, lesson here is that perception in investors is a reality and it is very and lack of serious attention to address the constitutional provision of the laws under the new constitution are followed and implementation is magnitudes. The main sectors driving the economy were agriculture Burundi, Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan and Uganda Nairobi, Ministry of Planning, Central Bureau of Statistics Nairobi. easy to destroy, but extremely difficult and painful to rebuild, indeed, two thirds rule, the Suguta Valley massacre,3 controversial police reforms, devoid of political manipulations. and forestry, wholesale and retail trade, transport and communication, as politicians make statements and chest-thumbing, the investors hold Figure 2.6: Value of Kenya’s Exports manufacturing and financial intermediation. The growth in these and lack of leadership at EACC and National cohesion Commission, also • Fundamentally, national, regional and international institutions Government of Kenya (GOK) (2007). Economic Survey 2007, their ÂmoneyÊ close to their chest waiting. provide pointers for concern and uncertainty. In addition, the continued (EAC, IGAD, AU, AID, etc) need to combine efforts to help Nairobi Ministry of Planning, Central Bureau of Statistics Nairobi. sectors was influenced by improved weather conditions, low Elections Dispatch No.6 The paper also discusses poverty gap and wealth inequalities rather existence of IDPs, the ICC process, the Church bombings and insecurity, achieve the desired results. These will include pursuing peaceful inflationary pressure, low interest rates, stable macroeconomic than poverty levels which for example do not cause violence in The lack of clarity and institutionalization of Political Parties for fair election elections as well as keeping the political leaders to respect the law Government of Kenya (GOK) (2003). Economic Survey 2003, environment, and increased credit to the private sector as well as Republic of Tanzania where poverty levels are higher. Poverty gap is participation process for their party membership. All these concerns are and institute a competitive, fair and credible election process. Nairobi Ministry of Planning, Central Bureau of Statistics Nairobi. higher investments noting that the focus of this paper is political negative pointers to perceived conflicts and course for alarm for businesses Govt Printer. economic analysis (Torsten 2002) rather than political economy. the mean shortfall from the poverty line (counting the non-poor as • The corporate sector needs to partner with civil society and having zero shortfall), expressed as a percentage of the poverty line and investors and ultimately for the economy. Kenya has made impressive improvements in infrastructure and policy communities to create last peace building communities under the HCDA, (2006). Horticultural Crop Development Authority “Kenyan (WDI, 2010). This measure reflects the depth of poverty as well as its institutionalization since the 2003. NARC indicative recent discoveries Furthermore, KenyaÊs influence in the East African region is often looked corporate social responsibility and ethics programs. Coca-Cola Flower Exports during the Violence: a Quantitative Assessment” incidence. Kenya is rated the 10th most unequal country in the world Source: Government of Kenya Economic Survey (2007) in oil and natural gas means we are better positioned to attract FDI at from its contribution to peaceful referendums and elections in South has been successful in South America conflict areas, and Oil NORMD. Nairobi; HCDA. in terms of wealth disparities. Of AfricaÊs 54 states, it is the third most and improve the investment climate. It is projected Economy survey, Sudan and Somalia respectively. However, KenyaÊs military intervention companies are trying this approach in Nigeria. unequal after South Africa and Nigeria3. in Somalia to get rid of the al-shaabab terror group, her boarder Heinrich Boll Foundation, (2006). „Challenges for Transitional 2011) be to approximately over $1.3 billion from 2013 through to 2018 Tourism indicates that the nature of growth, more specifically, political stability a misunderstanding with Ethiopia and her unresolved 2008 questions • More specifically at policy level the Kenyan government and its Politics in Kenya,‰ in A. Gh irmaizon (ed.) In Quest for a Culture Unlike the economic survey 2011 economic issues, election of Peace in the IGAD Region (Nairobi: Heinrich Boll Foundation. major variable in attracting and growing investments. In 2007, FDI was Tourism received 1.8 million international visitors by end of 2007, and as to the role of a section of UgandaÊs army in an hospital explosion in EAC counterparts to: campaigns in Kenya have often focused on non-economic internal earnings totaled Kshs. 65.4 billion. Kenya was ranked 101 in 2008 down at $729m and dropped almost 75% to $183m in 2008 after the election Eldoret are difficulties that are bound to negatively impact the economy. • The Export oriented crops should adopt diversification of export issues, often driven by ethnic agenda and lacking in regional–geo- KAM, (2010) „Challenges of Election Violence on Manufacturing: violence indicating a possible evidence of recurrence. KenyaÊs declining from 98 in 2007. This was attributed mostly to the negative publicity The strategic importance of Kenya in the region was demonstrated by the economics (or geopolitics), often defined as the sum total of regional channels in order to provide some protection against loss of „Nairobi; KAM. growth of 7.1 % in 2007 to 1.7 per cent in 2008 was compounded by from post-election violence decline in growth. It was also attributed to demolition of Kenya-Uganda rail way line in Kibera in KenyaÊs city of resource utilization4 and production processes and efficiency income; high inflation, with headline inflation reaching 25.8 per cent in March poor transport infrastructure, policy and legal weaknesses, and limited Nairobi. Above all, having led the regional Intergovernmental Authority model of converting inputs into outputs. For any economy to grow Ksoll C., Machiavelli R., Morjaria A. (2009), The Impact of the Kenyan 2009 while underlying inflation rose above the 5% target to reach 9% marketing budget in the tourism sector. The sector also contributes to • Provision or creation of a Conflict /violence insurance product to Post-election Violence on the Kenyan Flower Export Industry.