CONSORTIUM ON REGIONAL CLIMATOLOGY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE TO ADAPT TO LEARNING CONSORTIUM ON REGIONAL CLIMATOLOGY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE 550 Sherbrooke West, West Tower, 19th floor, Montreal, Quebec, H3A 1B9, Canada Editing and coordination: Claude DesJarlais, Anne Blondlot Main authors by section: Michel Allard: The North Alain Bourque: Summary and Conclusion Diane Chaumont: Quebec’s Climate and Projected Changes Claude DesJarlais: Energy Demand, Tourism and Recreation, Transportation Pierre Gosselin(1): Health of Populations Daniel Houle(2): Forests Caroline Larrivée: Built Environment, The South Nancy Lease: Agriculture René Roy: Hydroelectricity Generation Jean-Pierre Savard: The Coastal Zone Richard Turcotte: Water Resources Claude Villeneuve: Ecosystems and Biodiversity Collaboration: (1) : Diane Bélanger (2) : Ariane Bouffard et Anh Thu Pham Revision and Translation: Anne Blondlot Robyn Bryant Claude DesJarlais Hélène Gaonac’h Robert Siron Bibliographic note: Ouranos. Learning to Adapt to Climate Change, editors: C. DesJarlais, M. Allard, D. Bélanger, A. Blondlot, A. Bouffard, A. Bourque, D. Chaumont, P. Gosselin, D. Houle, C. Larrivée, N. Lease, A.T. Pham, R. Roy, J.-P. Savard, R. Turcotte and C. Villeneuve, Montreal, 2010, 128p. ISBN : 978-2-923292-04-5 Legal deposit - Bibliothèque nationale du Québec, 2010 Legal deposit - National Library of Canada, 2010 OURANOS 2010 OURANOS, a research consortium on regional climatology and adaptation to climate change, is a joint initiative of the government of Quebec, Hydro Québec and the Meteorological Service of Canada with the participation of UQAM, the INRS, and the Université de Laval and McGill University. The opinions and findings presented in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and of OURANOS. FOREWORD There is no longer any question that the warming of our climate system is in large part the result of human actions. It is also very clear that worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will continue to increase over the coming decades and that significantly more warming is inevitable. Even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced enough to stabilize their concentration, the processes of climate warming and rising sea levels will continue for centuries. In every part of the world, this warming will be accompanied by numerous negative impacts not only for ecosystems but for the built environment, the health of populations and various socioeconomic activities. Quebec will not be spared in this, and so must learn how to cope with these challenges. However, many of these impacts can be reduced or avoided with energetic mitigation measures. Moreover, the sooner we put these measures in place, the more they will help to minimize the impacts. In this regard, we must hope that international negotiations and national policies establish realistic and effective objectives and action plans as quickly as possible. Even with the progress we hope, significant impacts are expected, with certain systems, sectors and regions in Quebec more seriously affected by this climate evolution. For others, though, climate change – at least in the mid-term – may mean business opportunities for the seizing. This is why establishing appropriate measures and adaptation strategies is a critical tool for coming to terms with climate change. Since Ouranos was created in 2001, Quebec has at its disposal exceptional expertise for shaping its adaptation strategies. The research work generated, coordinated and achieved by Ouranos to date has already served to channel efforts and orient decision-making in a direction that integrates the most recent knowledge on climate change. This document Learning to Adapt to Climate Change is meant to provide a picture of current knowledge on this topic in a way that will be accessible to all Quebeckers who want to learn about the issues of climate change in their region and their field of interest. Chair of the Board of Directors, Pierre Baril Learning to Adapt to Climate Change ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This document is the product of the collaboration of twelve specialists, directly or indirectly connected to Ouranos, who prepared the various sections. These individuals were able to draw upon the ever-growing body of research that is being produced by different groups, focussing on the changes in the Quebec climate, the foreseeable impacts of these changes, the vulnerability of natural and socio-economic systems and the courses of action that should be given priority in order to adapt. Consequently, Ouranos wants to acknowledge the work of Diane Chaumont, Caroline Larrivée, Nancy Lease, Michel Allard, Alain Bourque, Claude DesJarlais, Pierre Gosselin, Daniel Houle, René Roy, Jean-Pierre Savard, Richard Turcotte and Claude Villeneuve, as well as their colleagues and all the researchers who have contributed in recent years to clarifying the stakes of climate change for Quebec. We also owe thanks to Line Bourdages and Travis Logan for the maps showing climate and growing degree-days that illustrate this document. Finally, we must acknowledge the patient and pain-staking work of coordination performed by Anne Blondlot and Claude DesJarlais, not to mention their revision efforts, in which they were ably aided by Robert Siron. The publication of this document and its English-language translation would not have been possible without the financial support of the members of Ouranos, and to them we are also indebted. Executive Director, André Musy Learning to Adapt to Climate Change CONTENTS PRINCIPAL CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................................. 3 PART ONE: PORTRAIT OF QUEBEC .......................................................................................................................... 5 The territory and the natural environment ....................................................................................................... 6 Quebec’s climate and the projected changes ................................................................................................. 6 The climate today ................................................................................................................................................ 7 The projected climate ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Changes in variability and climate extremes ........................................................................................... 10 The population ............................................................................................................................................................. 11 The economy ................................................................................................................................................................ 12 The social evolution .................................................................................................................................................. 14 The built environment .............................................................................................................................................. 15 PART TWO: VULNERABILITES, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS ............................................ 17 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................... 18 Built Environment ...................................................................................................................................................... 20 The North ............................................................................................................................................................. 20 The Coastal Zone .............................................................................................................................................. 24 The South ............................................................................................................................................................ 28 Economic activities .................................................................................................................................................... 31 Hydroelectricity generation ............................................................................................................................ 31 Energy demand ................................................................................................................................................. 37 Water resources ................................................................................................................................................. 40 The forest ............................................................................................................................................................. 47 Agriculture ............................................................................................................................................................ 53 Transportation ....................................................................................................................................................