UMR Omnibus Results April 2009 Mayoralty Of The Super City & Support For The Auckland Super City Concept WELLINGTON AUCKLAND SYDNEY 3 Collina Terrace 11 Earle Street Level One, Suite 105 Thorndon Parnell 332-342 Oxford Street WELLINGTON 6011 AUCKLAND 1052 SYDNEY NSW 2022 NEW ZEALAND NEW ZEALAND AUSTRALIA Tel: +64 4 473 1061 Tel: +64 9 373 8700 Tel: +61 2 9386 1622 Email: [email protected] Fax: +64 4 472 3501 Fax: +64 9 373 8704 Fax: +61 2 9386 1633 Website: www.umr.co.nz Methodology This report is based on a telephone survey of a nationally representative sample of 750 New Zealanders aged 18 years or over. The questions were asked of Auckland residents in consecutive omnibus surveys. Fieldwork was conducted from 5th to 13th March and 19th to 22nd March 2009 at UMR Research’s national interview facility in Auckland. The sample size is n=483. The margin of error for sample size of 483 for a 50% figure at the ‘95% confidence level’ is ± 4.7%. The list of potential mayors used in the surveys was assembled from possibilities mentioned in various media stories. It is recognised some may have no intention of standing and others may have been mentioned in media stories published since the fieldwork was undertaken. © Copyright - UMR Research Ltd 2 Key findings The level of support amongst Aucklanders for a super city is roughly the same as the level of opposition. 45% said they support the proposal for Auckland to be governed by a single council from 2010, while 43% opposed it. Support was higher amongst males than females (52% and 38% respectively). It was also higher amongst National Party voters (54%) compared to Labour Party voters (40%). Very few candidates that have been mentioned in the media are seen as a good mayoral options. Of the 21 candidates, John Banks (33%) and The Warehouse founder Stephen Tindall (30%) topped the list (1+2 on a 1-5 scale where 1 means ‘a very good mayor’). Many Aucklanders however had no opinion on whether the candidates would be a good or poor mayor For 11 candidates, more than 50% were unsure, didn’t know enough or had never heard of the person. Just 4 of the 21 candidates registered a positive mayoral rating. Taking all those who gave a 1 or 2 on the 1-5 scale, and taking away those who gave a 4 or 5, gives a net-rating, a measure of how strong opinions are for each candidate. Stephen Tindall had the strongest rating at +15%. Winston Peters had the most negative rating at -48%. Current Mayor of Auckland John Banks had a small positive rating of +2%. © Copyright - UMR Research Ltd 3 Key findings cont’d John Banks is the most preferred mayoral candidate Of the 21 candidates, Banks received the highest level of support, with 17% saying they would prefer him to be mayor of the super city. Bob Harvey (10%) and Stephen Tindall (9%) were the next most preferred candidates. Around 1 in 5 however did not have an opinion, saying they were unsure or didn’t prefer any of the candidates. © Copyright - UMR Research Ltd 4 Support For The Super City As you may be aware, there is a proposal for the whole of the Auckland region to be governed by a new single super city council from 2010. This city would stretch from Wellsford in the north to Pukekohe in the south and will be headed by a single mayor. Do you support or oppose the proposed super city? SUPPORT OPPOSE © Copyright - UMR Research Ltd 5 Mayoral Candidates Full Ratings I am going to read you a list of possible candidates for mayor of this new Auckland super city, as mentioned in the Sunday Star Times newspaper. Using a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means a very good mayor and 5 a very poor mayor, please tell me how good a mayor you think each candidate would be. If you have never heard of the person, or do not know enough about them just say so. John Banks 33% 24% 31% 13% Stephen Tindall 30% 20% 15% 34% Bob Harvey 25% 19% 21% 35% Don Brash 23% 20% 47% 10% Judith Tizard 19% 22% 34% 25% Len Brown 19% 12% 12% 56% Winston Peters 18% 11% 66% 5% Paul Holmes 16% 16% 58% 11% John Tamihere 15% 18% 50% 18% Michael Jones 14% 18% 31% 37% Wilson Whineray 13% 13% 21% 54% Andy Dalton 11% 15% 23% 51% Willie Jackson 10% 12% 42% 36% Michael Barnett 9% 14% 19% 58% Mike Lee 8% 12% 15% 65% Andrew Williams 4% 6% 14% 76% Alex Swney 4% 6% 11% 79% Alasdair Thompson 4% 9% 9% 77% Judith Tabron 3% 7% 11% 80% Blair Strang 2% 6% 21% 72% Peter Huljich 1% 5% 9% 85% Good Candidate (1+2) Neutral (3) Poor Candidate (4+5) Unsure/ Never Heard Of/ Don't Know Enough © Copyright - UMR Research Ltd 6 Mayoral Candidates Ranked By Net-Rating I am going to read you a list of possible candidates for mayor of this new Auckland super city, as mentioned in the Sunday Star Times newspaper. Using a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 means a very good mayor and 5 a very poor mayor, please tell me how good a mayor you think each candidate would be. If you have never heard of the person, or do not know enough about them just say so. Positive Ratings Negative Ratings Stephen Tindall 15.2% Len Brown 7.0% Bob Harvey 4.4% John Banks 1.6% Alasdair Thompson -5.3% Alex Swney -6.5% Mike Lee -7.2% Peter Huljich -7.4% Judith Tabron -7.9% Wilson Whineray -8.2% Andrew Williams -9.1% Michael Barnett -10.3% Andy Dalton -11.6% Judith Tizard -14.6% Michael Jones -17.1% Blair Strang -18.5% Don Brash -24.2% Willie Jackson -32.1% John Tamihere -35.7% Paul Holmes -42.4% Winston Peters -47.8% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% *NB: The net-rating is calculated by summing those who said each person would be a good candidate (1+2 on the scale) and minusing those who said each person would be a poor candidate (4+5 on the scale). © Copyright - UMR Research Ltd 7 Most Preferred Candidate Those with +5% Of all those possible candidates, who would you MOST like to see as the mayor of the Auckland super city? JOHN BANKS SUPPORT © Copyright - UMR Research Ltd 8.