Inner Thames Estuary Airport Phase 1B AIRPORTS COMMISSION Surface Access Impacts Study (Study 4) FINAL REPORT (Version 1 | Revision F) 10th July 2014 Surface Access Impacts Study (Study 4) Inner Thames Estuary Airport Phase 1B Project no: KU106700 Document title: Surface Access Impacts Study Document no: 1 Revision: F Date: 10th July 2014 Client name: Airports Commission Project manager: Stephen Rutherford Lead author: Jon Hale File name: I:\UNIF\Projects\UN60325\Deliverables\Reports\FINAL report 10th July\Inner Estuary Airport Phase 1B - Surface Access Feasibility Report (Study 4) - FINAL.docx Jacobs New City Court 20 St Thomas Street London T +44 (0)20 7939 6100 F +44 (0)20 7939 6103 www.jacobs.com COPYRIGHT: The concepts and information contained in this document are the property of Sinclair Knight Merz (Europe) Limited (Jacobs). Use or copying of this document in whole or in part without the written permission of Jacobs constitutes an infringement of copyright. Document history and status Revision Date Description By Review Approved A 9/6/2014 First draft JH SR SR B 10/6/2014 Second draft – additional changes following SR review, JH SR SR additional text on rail capacity analysis, amendments to roads analysis C 25/06/2014 Third draft – addition of environmental and engineering JH SR SR assessment chapters and amendments to other chapters based on client feedback D 03/07/2014 Fourth draft JH SR SR E 09/07/2014 Final draft JH SR SR F 10/07/2014 FINAL FOR PUBLICATION JH SR SR 1 i Surface Access Impacts Study (Study 4) Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 9 1.1 Background ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Study scope .................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 1.3 Context ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 1.4 Report structure ............................................................................................................................................................................ 12 2. ITE proposals ........................................................................................................................................... 13 2.1 Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 2.2 Headline assumptions .................................................................................................................................................................. 13 2.3 Surface transport elements ........................................................................................................................................................... 15 3. Surface transport demand forecasting methodology ......................................................................... 25 3.1 Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 3.2 Benchmarking ............................................................................................................................................................................... 26 3.3 Headline assumptions .................................................................................................................................................................. 35 3.4 Trip distribution ............................................................................................................................................................................. 40 3.5 Rail demand .................................................................................................................................................................................. 50 3.6 Road demand and capacity .......................................................................................................................................................... 58 4. Rail access assessment ......................................................................................................................... 65 4.1 Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 65 4.2 Proposed rail access strategies .................................................................................................................................................... 65 4.3 Rail options ................................................................................................................................................................................... 66 4.4 Forecasting assumptions .............................................................................................................................................................. 74 4.5 Forecast rail mode share .............................................................................................................................................................. 75 4.6 Rail capacity analysis ................................................................................................................................................................... 77 4.7 Deliverability issues ...................................................................................................................................................................... 86 4.8 Rail journey times ......................................................................................................................................................................... 86 4.9 Rail level of service ....................................................................................................................................................................... 96 5. Road access assessment ....................................................................................................................... 99 5.1 Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 99 5.2 Results and conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................... 99 6. Engineering costs ................................................................................................................................. 108 6.1 Rail cost methodology ................................................................................................................................................................ 108 6.2 Rail scheme cost estimates ........................................................................................................................................................ 109 6.3 Highways methodology ............................................................................................................................................................... 110 6.4 Highway costs ............................................................................................................................................................................. 111 7. Environmental impacts ......................................................................................................................... 112 7.1 Scope of Assessment ................................................................................................................................................................. 112 7.2 Limitations and assumptions ...................................................................................................................................................... 113 7.3 Assessment for Rail Option 3(a) - excluding Crossrail Northern Extension and Airport Express ............................................... 114 7.4 Assessment for Rail Option 3(b) (including Crossrail Northern Extension) ................................................................................ 121 7.5 Assessment of Rail Option 4 (including the Airport Express) ..................................................................................................... 122 1 ii Surface Access Impacts Study (Study 4) 7.6 Assessment of road improvements ............................................................................................................................................ 123 7.7 Environmental Summary ............................................................................................................................................................ 126 8. Summary and conclusions ..................................................................................................................