Foreign Policy Review VOLUME 13 ALEXANDRA ZOLTAI & PÉTER KLEMENSITS: WHAT DO CHINA AND THE BRI MEAN TO ASEAN ECONOMIES? ZOLTÁN VÖRÖS & PONGKHAO SOMSACK: LAOS AND THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE. AN INTERCONNECTOR HELPING THE CHINESE NEEDS? TEMJENMEREN AO: COUNTERWEIGHT TO CHINA? THE POTENTIAL OF ASEAN’S ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH INDIA TAKESHI DAIMON-SATO: SINO-JAPANESE COMPETITION OVER THE “AID MARKET” IN ASEAN: POLITICAL TENSIONS AND CONSEQUENCES ANIKÓ MAGASHÁZI: GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SUPPLY CHAINS IN EAST-ASIA AND THE EVOLVING ASEAN REGIONALISM ZOLTÁN PÁLDI: THE EU-ASEAN TIES: A STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP? ASSESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIONS THROUGH THE LENS OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION TO MINH THU & HAN LAM GIANG: ASEAN’S FTA PROCESS AND PROSPECTS KATIGBAK JOVITO JOSE: REVAMPING FINANCE VIA FINTECH: PROMISES, PERILS, AND PRACTICES IN ASEAN DÁNIEL MOLNÁR & DIÁNA HORVÁTH & GÁBOR REGŐS: MONETARY POLICY IN THE FOUNDER COUNTRIES OF ASEAN Foreign Policy Review Volume 13 Volume Review Policy Foreign 2020 KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET INSTITUTEINSTITUTE FOR FOR FOREIGN FOREIGN AFFAIRS AFFAIRS AND TRADEAND TRADE Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade Budapest, 2020 This publication was financially supported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Hungary. Foreign Policy Review Publisher: Márton Ugrósdy Editor: Péter Goreczky Layout and design: Tamás Lévárt Published by the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade H-1016 Budapest, Bérc u. 13-15. Phone: +36 1 279 5700 Fax: +36 1 279 57 01 Email: [email protected]; Web: www.kki.hu © Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade, 2020 Budapest, 2020 ISSN 1588-7855 (Print) ISSN 2064-9428 (Online) https://doi.org/10.47706/KKIFPR.2020.13.7-23 https://doi.org/10.47706/KKIFPR.2020.13.24-38 https://doi.org/10.47706/KKIFPR.2020.13.39-57 https://doi.org/10.47706/KKIFPR.2020.13.58-73 https://doi.org/10.47706/KKIFPR.2020.13.74-95 https://doi.org/10.47706/KKIFPR.2020.13.96-113 https://doi.org/10.47706/KKIFPR.2020.13.114-128 https://doi.org/10.47706/KKIFPR.2020.13.129-144 https://doi.org/10.47706/KKIFPR.2020.13.145 -163 Contents PÉTER GORECZKY Foreword ............................................................................................................. 6 ALEXANDRA ZOLTAI & PÉTER KLEMENSITS What do China and the BRI Mean to ASEAN Economies? ............................... 7 ZOLTÁN VÖRÖS & PONGKHAO SOMSACK Laos and the Belt and Road Initiative. An Interconnector Helping the Chinese Needs? ............................................... 24 TEMJENMEREN AO Counterweight to china? The Potential of ASEAN’s Economic Relations with India ................................ 39 TAKESHI DAIMON-SATO Sino-Japanese Competition over the “aid market” in ASEAN: Political Tensions and Consequences .............................................................. 58 ANIKÓ MAGASHÁZI Global and Regional Supply Chains in East-Asia and the Evolving ASEAN Regionalism .............................................................. 74 ZOLTÁN PÁLDI The EU-ASEAN Ties: A Strategic Partnership? Assessing the Development of Relations through the Lens of Political and Economic Cooperation ............................................... 96 TO MINH THU & HAN LAM GIANG ASEAN’S FTA Process and Prospects ............................................................ 114 KATIGBAK JOVITO JOSE Revamping Finance via Fintech: Promises, Perils, and Practices in ASEAN .................................................................................... 129 DÁNIEL MOLNÁR & DIÁNA HORVÁTH & GÁBOR REGŐS Monetary Policy in the Founder Countries of ASEAN ....................................... 145 4 Authors and Affiliations Temjenmeren AO, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs HAN Lam Giang, Researcher, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Diána HORVÁTH, Economic Analyst, Századvég Economic Research Institute KATIGBAK Jovito Jose, Part-Time Lecturer, School of Diplomacy and Governance De La Salle – College of Saint Benilde Péter KLEMENSITS, Senior Researcher, PAGEO Research Institute Anikó MAGASHÁZI, Permanent Research Fellow, Institute of Advanced Studies, Kőszeg, Hungary Dániel MOLNÁR, Economic Analyst, Századvég Economic Research Institute Zoltán PÁLDI, Trade Attaché at the Embassy of Hungary in Jakarta PONGKHAO Somsack, Graduated MA Student, Department of Political Science and International Studies, University of Pécs Gábor REGŐS, Head of Macroeconomic Division, Századvég Economic Research Institute Takeshi DAIMON-SATO, Professor, Waseda University TO Minh Thu, Deputy Director General, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Zoltán VÖRÖS, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and International Studies, University of Pécs Alexandra ZOLTAI, China Researcher, PAGEO Research Institute 5 https://doi.org/10.47706/KKIFPR.2020.13.7-23 Foreword PÉTER GORECZKY, Editor These days it has become an analyst cliché to state that the gravity of growth in the global economy has shifted to Asia. The fact that China is already an economic superpower is hard to dispute and the rise of India as an economic powerhouse is also widely acknowledged. Besides these two giants, there is also a group of countries in Southeast Asia that is attracting growing attention from foreign economic policy makers, investors and multinational companies. The ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region is progressing to be the most promising and diverse centre of economic growth globally. Due to their potential, its countries are becoming key economic partners for China, India, and Japan. Regarding the geographic proximity and the enormous need for infrastructure development in the region, it is not surprising that the ASEAN countries are in the focus of China’s emblematic project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beyond the BRI, most economies in the region are deeply interlinked with China in terms of foreign direct investments (FDI) and trade. A partnership which presents opportunities and also the risk of excessive dependency at the same time. This controversial economic relationship makes every chance for diversification more valuable and the possible role of India as a counterweight to China is an interesting concept for further analysis. Traditionally, Japan has been a key player in the region as a source of FDI and official development aid. Hence, the growing presence of China in these fields represents a major challenge to Japan’s positions in Southeast Asia. In the past decade, the region has also evolved to become a hot spot for global and regional value chains as a growing number of transnational companies have located manufacturing activity to Southeast Asia. The US-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic are both having major impacts on how the ASEAN region can maintain or even develop its positions as an attractive location in the global FDI landscape. The European Union has also recognised the significance of the ASEAN region as a future growth engine of the global economy. However, bilateral disputes between the EU and certain ASEAN member states inhibit the potential upgrade of relations to the level of strategic partnership, which has been a pursuit of the European Union in the last few years. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on the global economy, including the ASEAN region. Nevertheless it is too early to declare how the economic relations in Southeast Asia will be impacted by the crisis. It is anticipated that free trade agreements in the region will receive more emphasis as tools for helping the economic recovery. The pandemic may also catalyse cutting edge sectors like financial technology. In this issue of our journal, the Foreign Policy Review, we have a wide range of articles focusing mostly on these aspects of the ASEAN region’s integration into the world economy. I hope that our readers will enjoy the different perspectives of authors who represent various universities, research institutes and think tanks from Hungary through India and Vietnam to the Philippines and Japan. Despite the diversity of views, they all reflect the remarkable potential of the ASEAN region as a player in the global economy. 6 https://doi.org/10.47706/KKIFPR.2020.13.7-23 What do China and the BRI Mean to ASEAN Economies? ALEXANDRA ZOLTAI & PÉTER KLEMENSITS Abstract: China’s Belt and Road project, announced in 2013, has had a major impact on the world, and the ASEAN countries are, of course, not an exception. However, there is no consensus among the Member States on how to manage China, and therefore the response to the BRI was not uniform, either. Some countries regard the project as a threat, others as an opportunity, but they agree that dependency on China should be kept to a minimum. However, what role this effort plays in the Belt and Road project and how feasible it is, is a major question. The study assumed that after 2013 (inter alia thanks to the BRI), ASEAN– China relations have substantially improved and economic cooperation has been strengthened. To demonstrate this, by using economic indicators, we sought to create a benchmark by which to compare the impact of China on the economies of ASEAN countries. The results show which country is economically most dependant on China and whether each country’s related political narrative corresponds to the change of the economic data. Keywords: ASEAN, China, economy, Belt and Road Introduction The purpose of this study was to present the relationship between the People’s Republic of China (China) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries in the