The NFL’s Current Business Model and the Potential 2011 Lockout Jake I. Fisher Economics 1630: The Economics of Sports and Entertainment Professor Stanley Engerman May 4, 2010 1 Introduction In March 2010, Roger Goodell, the Commissioner of the National Football League (NFL), announced an aggressive goal for his business: $25 billion in yearly revenue by 2027.1 To put that figure in perspective, the countries of Panama, Jordan, Ghana, and Iceland all had nominal GDPs less than $25 billion in 2009.2 For the NFL to reach Goodell’s lofty target, the league will have to quickly build on what Business Week has already called, “one of America’s best-run businesses.”3 During the 2008 season, the NFL made an estimated $7.6 billion in revenue and $1.0 billion in operating income. The average team value was $1.04 billion.4 The Economist wrote in 2006 that, “[the NFL] remains the most popular of the four big American sports on almost every measure, from opinion polls to television ratings.”5 A comparison of 2008 financials for the NFL, Major League Baseball (MLB), National Basketball Association (NBA), and National Hockey League (NHL) is displayed in Appendices 1 and 2. The conclusion is clear: with the highest revenue, income, and value, the NFL leads the American professional sports business. This paper will take a critical look at the NFL business model. Specifically, it will investigate how the NFL has constructed a sports empire in the United States. How does the league generate its revenues and earn profits and how has it popularized and stabilized demand for its product? I will demonstrate that the NFL’s noticeable profit 1 Kaplan, Daniel. “Goodell sets revenue goal of $25 billion by 2027 for NFL.” Sporting News NFL. 5 Apr. 2010. http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/article/2010-04-05/sbj-goodell-sets-revenue-goal-25-billion-2027- for-nfl 2 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, Apr. 2010: Nominal GDP list of countries. Data for the year 2009. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/weodata/index.aspx 3 “This Is The NFL: 2009-2010.” National Football League: New York, NY, 2009, pg. 4. 4 Unless otherwise cited, financials come from Forbes Business of Football, Baseball, Basketball, and Hockey online databases for the 2006-09 seasons. 5 “In a league of its own.” The Economist. 27 Apr. 2006. http://www.economist.com/business- finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=6859210 2 margin is a result of centrally driven top line development, spearheaded by national media deals, and a containment of player salary growth. The NFL has been able to stabilize demand by controlling product distribution, distributing risk, and maintaining economic and competitive parity. Although the NFL has become the behemoth of American sports, it faces serious short-term stability issues. The NFL owners opted out of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) in 2008, and there is speculation that there could be a lockout in 2011. After investigating the history of the current CBA dispute, I will analyze how a work stoppage could affect the NFL business and Goodell’s rapid strategic growth plan. The Business of the NFL The NFL is the most profitable American sports league. To analyze the source of this profitability and how the NFL organizes its business, it is essential to break down team revenues and costs. Because most franchises are privately owned, financials are not publicly available. However, the Green Bay Packers are a community-owned franchise, and thus release their financial information.6 Appendices 3 and 4 show the relative sizes of revenue and operating expense sources for the Packers in 2009. An examination of Green Bay revenue sources provides several insights into the NFL business. Perhaps the most notable insight is that approximately 60 percent of total revenue in the NFL is generated centrally and distributed evenly among the 32 teams. The Green Bay income statement shows that $147 million of its $248 million in revenue (59 percent) is generated by the NFL league office. The 60-40 split in nationally 6 Green Bay Packers financial information obtained from http://joe.bowman.net/Statement.htm. 3 generated revenue to locally generated revenue that the Packers possess is consistent with what NFL executives have cited at speaking events as the league-wide distribution. It makes sense that the Packers fall right at the league-wide 60-40 split, since the franchise is average (15th of 32 teams) in revenue generation. The $147 million in centrally generated revenue that the Packers receive consists of road game ticket receipts, NFL Properties revenue, and television and radio deals. Of Green Bay’s $47 million in ticket revenue, $17 million is sourced from road games. This breakdown exists because the NFL has a 60-40 policy whereby the home team keeps 60 percent of gate receipts and gives 40 percent of receipts to a pool, which is then distributed evenly among the 32 teams. The NFL has the most comprehensive system of shared gate receipts. The NBA and NHL do not share ticket sales, and MLB home teams keep 85 percent of ticket revenue.7 The $95 million the Packers make from television and radio is also generated centrally by the NFL. As Appendix 3 shows, the NFL’s national media revenue is the backbone of the business. National media is 38 percent of Green Bay’s total revenue, twice the amount of local ticket revenue. NBC, FOX, CBS, ESPN, DirecTV, Sirius, EA Sports, and Verizon all pay significant rights fees for NFL content. The deals with FOX and CBS, which run through 2011, are reported to be worth $8 billion combined. It is estimated that ESPN’s deal is worth $8.8 billion and NBC’s is valued at $3.6 billion.8 The DirecTV deal, extended for four years in 2009, is valued at $4 billion.9 Altogether, 7 Scully, Gerald W. “Sports.” The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics. 2008. http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/Sports.html 8 “NFL Media Rights Deals For ’07 Season.” Sports Business Daily. 6 Sept. 2007. http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/article/114714 9 Futterman, Matthew. “NFL, DirecTV Extend Pact in $4 Billion Deal.” Wall Street Journal. 24 March 2009. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123786503490122053.html 4 the NFL brought in around $3.74 billion in television revenue in 2007. This figure alone is larger than the $2.8 billion the NHL made total in 2009 and is comparable to the $3.8 billion the NBA made in 2009 total revenue. The rights fees for NFL content are substantial because of the success of NFL broadcasts. A regular season NFL game in 2009 drew an average of 16.6 million viewers, while other primetime shows on NBC, CBS, ABC, and FOX averaged just 8.8 million viewers.10 Moreover, the 12 highest rated broadcasts of the past decade have been NFL games.11 The final source of centrally generated revenue in the Packers income statement is NFL Properties revenue. This source, which consists of league merchandising and licensing, contributes $36.5 million to the Packers. Only 40 percent of the Packers’ revenues are locally generated. The sources of this local revenue include home ticket receipts, private boxes, parking, concessions, and local marketing, sponsorships, and media deals. It is true that the business of the NFL, more so than other leagues, is built not on local revenue, but on sharing centrally generated revenue. The business model of generating and sharing such a large quantity of central revenue is unique to the NFL. Unlike the NFL, the NBA, MLB, and NHL are more oriented on gate receipts and local media. The NFL generated $1.68 billion in local gate receipts in 2008, which is 22 percent of its total revenue. The NBA share of gate receipts to total revenue is 32 percent (2008-09), the MLB share is 37 percent (2008), and the NHL share is 42 percent (2008-09). Other sports leagues and teams differ in their 10 “As playoffs begin, NFL celebrates regular-season TV ratings.” Associated Press. New York. 2010. http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/story?id=09000d5d81598ea2&template=with-video-with- comments&confirm=true 11 Television ratings information courtesy of Nielsen Media Research, http://en- us.nielsen.com/tab/industries/media. 5 business models, as well. NASCAR, for instance, is built around sponsorship revenue.12 In 2008, NASCAR collected $1.5 billion of its estimated $3 billion in revenue from corporate sponsorships.13 Furthermore, Real Madrid, a Spanish soccer team, put a strong emphasis on marketing revenue earlier in the decade. In 2004, it was estimated that Real Madrid’s largest share of revenue would be from commercial and marketing activities.14 Another soccer team, Boca Juniors from Argentina, structures its business around the sale of players. From 1996-2006, Boca Juniors made AR$583 million in operating revenue and AR$356 million on player transfers.15 For the NFL to ensure that its sizeable top line leads to profits, the league must be able to control team costs. Appendix 4 shows that one cost, player salaries, makes up the majority of team expenses. For the Green Bay Packers, $138.7 million of its $227.8 million in total expenses (61 percent) comes in the form of player payroll. Because of its size, team payroll is an important pressure point in determining whether a team is profitable. As a way to control payrolls, the NFL instituted a “hard” salary cap when the current CBA was signed in 2006. Hard salary caps and floors are strict bounds that teams cannot cross.