Erratum to Accompany C2G Report (ANL/ESD-16/7) September 14, 2016 The calculation of the per-mile fuel cost for FUTURE TECHNOLOGY HEVs in the first release of this report (Section 9) mistakenly used an older estimate of fuel economy for this vehicle technology. This error also affected the subsequent calculation of the cost of avoided carbon emissions in Section 10 for FUTURE TECHNOLOGY HEVs. The on-road fuel economy for FUTURE TECHNOLOGY HEV used in the first release of this report was 48.2 mi/gge, whereas the fuel economy from Autonomie simulations for this vehicle technology (see Section 6) was 53.5 mi/gge. Using the 53.5 mi/gge fuel economy for FUTURE TECHNOLOGY HEV in the calculation of per-mile fuel cost of FUTURE TECHNOLOGY HEVs resulted in updates to the following figures and tables of the report: Figures ES- 3 and ES-5 in the Executive Summary; Figures 23, 25, and 27 in Section 9; Figures 34 and 36, and Tables 55 and 56 in Section 10; and Figures F.2 and F.4 (as well as the repeated Figures 23 and 34) in Appendix F. It is noted that the GHG emissions calculations in the first release of the report correctly used the 53.5 mi/gge for FUTURE TECHNOLOGY HEV. Thus no changes are made to the GHG emissions charts in the report. Updated version of the report is published as ANL/ESD-16/7 Rev. 1 CONTENTS Notation ....................................................................................................................................... xiii Acknowledgments ..................................................................................................................... xvii Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. xviii 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Climate and Policy Context ........................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Previous LCA and C2G Work .................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Overview of the Present C2G Study ........................................................................................... 3 1.4 Report Organization .................................................................................................................... 5 1.5 References for Section 1 ............................................................................................................. 5 2 Overview of Methodology ..................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Study Scope, Definitions and Major Assumptions ..................................................................... 8 2.2 Approach of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Energy Use LCA ................................................ 9 2.3 Vehicle Modeling Approach ..................................................................................................... 10 2.4 Fuel Modeling Approach .......................................................................................................... 11 2.5 References for Section 2 ........................................................................................................... 12 3 Vehicle-Fuel Pathway Selection and Vehicle Technologies ............................................. 13 3.1 Vehicle-Fuel Pathways ............................................................................................................. 13 3.2 Description of Selected Vehicle Technologies ......................................................................... 13 3.3 Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) ...................................................................................... 15 3.4 References for Section 3 ........................................................................................................... 18 4 Fuel Pathways: GHG Assumptions and Data Sources .................................................... 20 4.1 Petroleum Pathways .................................................................................................................. 20 4.1.1 Crude Production ......................................................................................................... 21 4.1.2 GHG Emissions in Oil Fields ...................................................................................... 21 4.1.3 Crude Refining ............................................................................................................. 23 4.2 Natural Gas Pathway ................................................................................................................. 24 4.3 Biofuels Pathways ..................................................................................................................... 25 4.3.1 Corn Ethanol ................................................................................................................ 25 4.3.2 Corn Stover Ethanol ..................................................................................................... 26 4.3.3 Soybeans to Fatty Acid Methyl Ester and Hydroprocessed Renewable Diesel ........... 28 4.3.4 Land Use Change from Biofuel Production ................................................................. 31 4.3.5 Pyrolysis of Cellulosic Biomass .................................................................................. 32 iii 4.4 Hydrogen Pathways .................................................................................................................. 34 4.4.1 Steam Methane Reforming of Natural Gas .................................................................. 35 4.4.2 Water Electrolysis ........................................................................................................ 35 4.4.3 Biomass Gasification ................................................................................................... 35 4.4.4 Hydrogen Delivery (Transmission, Distribution, and Refueling) ................................ 35 4.5 Gas-To-Liquid (GTL) Pathways ............................................................................................... 37 4.6 Electricity Pathways .................................................................................................................. 37 4.7 Changes to Default Estimates from GREET 2014 .................................................................... 38 4.8 References for Section 4 ........................................................................................................... 39 5 Fuel Pathways: Cost Assumptions and Data Sources ..................................................... 45 5.1 Approach, Assumptions, and Summary of Fuel Costs ............................................................. 45 5.2 Transportation Fuel Price Estimates from AEO 2015 .............................................................. 47 5.3 Pyrolysis Fuels .......................................................................................................................... 48 5.4 Future Technology Diesel Fuels (HRD, FAME, GTL/FTD) .................................................... 48 5.4.1 Hydroprocessed Renewable Diesel (HRD) Pathway ................................................... 49 5.4.2 Fatty Acid Methyl Ester (FAME) Pathway ................................................................. 49 5.4.3 Gas-To-Liquid Fischer-Tropsch Diesel (GTL FTD) Pathway ..................................... 49 5.5 Ethanol (E85) from Corn Stover ............................................................................................... 50 5.6 Electricity .................................................................................................................................. 51 5.7 Hydrogen Fuel .......................................................................................................................... 51 5.8 References for Section 5 ........................................................................................................... 53 6 Vehicle Fuel Consumption and Cost Assumptions .......................................................... 56 6.1 Autonomie Summary ................................................................................................................ 56 6.2 Vehicle Components Sizing ...................................................................................................... 57 6.3 Fuel Economy and Electricity Consumption ............................................................................ 58 6.4 Vehicle Weight and Composition ............................................................................................. 61 6.4.1 Advanced Battery Cost Assumptions .......................................................................... 63 6.5 Vehicle Cost .............................................................................................................................. 65 6.6 References for Section 6 ........................................................................................................... 68 7 Vehicle Production Pathways ............................................................................................. 70 7.1 System Boundary for Vehicle Production Pathways ................................................................ 70 7.2 Material Composition for Each Component ............................................................................. 71 7.3 Key Material