Canadian Special Publication of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 108 DFO - Libra y ! MPO B Lai othèque 11 EFFECTS OF OCEAN VARIABILITY ON RECRUITMENT AND AN EVALUATION OF PARAMETERS USED IN STOCK ASSESSMENT MODELS Edited by R.J. Beamish and G.A. McFarlane qL c3H tkid Fisheries Pêches 1+1 and Oceans et Océans Canadhl Canadian Special Publication of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 108 Effects of Ocean Variability on Recruitment and an Evaluation of Parameters Used in Stock Assessment Models : 1.11; RA V% Y (Proceedings of the International Symposium held at 1990 Vancouver, British Columbia, October 26-29, 1987) 1 FEEVB 6_ e iellor-itouE Edited by Pôchot; R. J. Beamish and G. A. McFarlane Department of Fisheries and Oceans Biological Sciences Branch Pacific Biological Station Nanaimo, British Columbia V9R 5K6 Scientific Excellence Resource Protection & Conservation Benefits for Canadians Sponsored by International Recruitment Investigations in the Subarctic (IRIS) and International North Pacific Fisheries Commission (INPFC) DEPARTMENT OF FISHERIES AND OCEANS OTTAWA 1989 Published by Publié par Fisheries Pêches EMI and Oceans et Océans Communications Direction générale Directorate des communications © Minister of Supply and Services Canada 1989 Available from authorized bookstore agents, other bookstores or you may send your prepaid order to the Canadian Government Publishing Centre Supply and Services Canada, Ottawa, Ont. K1A 0S9 Make cheques or money orders payable in Canadian funds to the Receiver General for Canada. A deposit copy of this publication is also available for reference in public libraries across Canada. Cat. No. Fs 41-31/108E ISBN 0-660-13360-1 ISSN 0706-6481 DF0/4220 Communications Directorate Director General: Nicole Deschênes Director: John Camp Editorial and Publishing Services: Gerald J. Neville Correct citation for this publication: BEAMISH, R. J., AND G. A. MCFARLANE. 1989. Effects of ocean variability on recruitment and an evaluation of parameters used in stock assessment models. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 108: 379 p. Also published as Bulletin Number 49 of the International North Pacific Fisheries Commission (In Japanese). Contents Abstract/Résumé v Sponsors, Steering Committee, Organizing Committee vi-viii List of Contributors ix-x Acknowledgements xi Introduction. R. J. Beamish, G. A. McFarlane, and W. S. Wooster 1-3 Introductory Address - Before and After Ricker (1954) and Beverton Holt (1957). P. A. Larkin 5-9 TOPIC 1. An Evaluation of the Accuracy of Parameters Used in Stock Assessment An experimental strategy for groundfish management in the face of large uncertainty about stock size and production. C. J. Walters and J. S. Collie. 13-25 Implications of age determination errors to yield estimates. A. V. Tyler, R. J. Beamish, and G. A. McFarlane. 27-35 Influence of errors in parameter estimates on stock assessment. S. Tanaka. 37-42 Errors in the stock assessment of the Japanese sardine (Sardinops inelanosticta) using the line-transect method. I. Hara 43-50 Importance of environmental fluctuations in the management of Pacific hake (Merluccius productus). R. C. Francis, S. A. Adlerstein, and A. Hollowed. 51-56 Variability in estimating catch-in-numbers-at-age and its impact on cohort analysis. D. K. Kimura 57-66 Time series analysis: Quantifying variability and correlation in SE Alaska salmon catches and environmental data. J. T. Quinn II and R. P. Marshall. 67-80 Distribution, size composition, and abundance of the Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) along the Pacific coast of North America in 1985. M. A. Stepanenko 81-86 Incorrect parameter values used in virtual population analysis (VPA) generate spurious time trends in reconstructed abundances. M. J. Bradford and R. M. Peterman. 87-99 The influence of statistical error in stock assessments: illustrations from Schaefer's model J. Schnute. 101-109 Internal regulation of reproduction in Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonica) as related to population fluctuation. Y. Tsuruta and K. Hirose. 111-119 The dynamic pool model and consequences of its approximations to fisheries management. X. Li 121-126 Further aspects of catch-age analysis with auxiliary information. R. B. Deriso, P. R. Neal, and T. J. Quinn II . 127-135 Scale patterns of commercial stocks of Asian sockeye salmon, Oncorhynchus nerka. V. F. Bugaev 137-150 TOPIC 2. The Effects of Ocean Variability on Recruitment Recruitment of marine fishes revisited. W. S. Wooster and K. M. Bailey. 153-159 Forecasts of runs of West Kamchatka pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) based on analysis of the downstream migration and inshore feeding of the juveniles. N. A. Chebanov. 161-168 Buoyancy of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) eggs in relation to water properties and movement in Shelikof Strait, Gulf of Alaska. A. W. Kendall, Jr. and S. Kim 169-180 Characteristics of development of atmospheric circulation in the northern Pacific Ocean and their role in determining long-term changes in the abundance of certain fishes. I. V. Davydov. 181-194 Ecological studies of the pomfret (Brama japonica) in the North Pacific Ocean. K. Shimizaki. 195-205 New perspectives on the relationship between recruitment of Pacific hake (Meduccius productus) and the ocean environment. A. B. Hollowed and K. M. Bailey 207-220 Influence of oceanographic and meteorological processes on the recruitment of Pacific halibut, Hippoglossus stenolepis, in the Gulf of Alaska. K. S. Parker. 221-237 Estimation of the effects of flow on dispersion of larval pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, in Shelikof Strait, Alaska. R. K. Reed, L. S. Incze, and J. D. Schumacher 239-246 A numerical model for the variability of the northeast Pacific Ocean. W. W. Hsieh and W. G. Lee 247-254 Comparisons of time scales for biomass transfer up the marine food web and coastal transport processes. K. L. Denman, H. J. Freeland, and D. L. Mackas 255-264 111 The Vancouver Island coastal current: fisheries barrier and conduit. R. E. Thomson, B. M. Hickey, and P. H. LeBlond 265-296 Transportation of eggs and larvae of mackerel, Scomber japonicus (Houttuyn), by the Kuroshio Current. A. Tomosada. 297-303 Effects of ocean variability on the abundance of Dungeness crab (Cancer magister) megalopae. G. S. Jamieson, A. C. Phillips, and W. S. Huggett 305-325 Effects of temperature and stock size on year-class production for rock sole (Lepidopsetta bilineata) in northern Hecate Strait, British Columbia. J. Fargo and S. McKinnell 327-333 A family of Ricker SRR curves of the prawn (Penaeus orientalis) under different environmental conditions and its enhancement potential in the Bohai Sea. Q. Tang, J. Deng, and J. Zhu. 335-339 Contributions of Ozernaya River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) to ocean catches with special reference to their distribution in time and space. M. M. Selifonov. 341-352 The role of environmental factors in fluctuations of stocks of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea. 0. A. Bulatov. 353-357 Fisheries production domains in the northeast Pacific Ocean. D. M. Ware and G. A. McFarlane 359-379 iv Abstract BEAMISH, R. J., AND G. A. MCFARLANE [ED.]. 1989. Effects of ocean variability on recruitment and an evaluation of parameters used in stock assessment models. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Agnat. Sci. 108: 379 p. Invited speakers from Canada, The People's Republic of China, Japan, the United States of America, and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics met in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, to discuss the effects of ocean variability on recruitment and to evalu- ate the accuracy of parameters used in stock assessment models. In addition to providing new information on two important topics, the symposium attempted to stimulate commu- nication among fisheries and oceans scientists and to encourage interdisciplinary research. The symposium also provided an example of the potential benefits of a proposed new North Pacific fisheries and oceans science organization. Résumé BEAMISH, R. J., AND G. A. MCFARLANE [ED.]. 1989. Effects of ocean variability on recruitment and an evaluation of parameters used in stock assessment models. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 108: 379 p. Des conférenciers invités du Canada, de la République de Chine, du Japon, des États-Unis et de l'Union des républiques socialistes soviétiques se sont réunis à Vancouver en Colombie-Britannique (Canada) afin d'étudier les effets de la variabilité des océans sur le recrutement et d'évaluer la précision des paramètres utilisés pour les modèles d'évalua- tion du stock. En plus de fournir de nouvelles données sur deux sujets importants, le colloque visait à stimuler la communication entre les halieutes et les océanologues et à favoriser les recherches interdisciplinaires. Le colloque a aussi fourni un exemple des avantages potentiels relativement à une nouvelle organisation scientifique des pêches et des océans dans le Pacifique nord. v Sponsors International Pacific Halibut Commission University of Alaska University of British Columbia National Marine Fisheries Service Canada Department of Fisheries and Oceans International North Pacific Fisheries Commission (INPFC) International Recruitment Investigations in the Subarctic (IRIS) Steering Committee Canada Dr. R. J. Beamish Director (Chairman) Department of Fisheries and Oceans Biological Sciences Branch Pacific Biological Station Nanaimo, B.C. V9R 5K6 Dr. C. Mann Director-General Institute of Ocean Sciences Sidney, B.C. (Retired) 9751 Ardmore Drive R.R. No. 2 Sidney, B.C. V8L 3S1 Dr. N. J. Wilimovsky Professor Institute of Animal Resource Ecology University of British Columbia Vancouver, B.C. V6T 1W5 China Mr. Jia Jiansan Director Division of Foreign Economics and Techniques Bureau of Aquatic Products 31 Minfeng Lane, Xidan Beijing China Japan Dr. Sigeiti Hayasi Director Far Seas Fisheries Research Laboratory Japan Fisheries Agency 7-1, Orido 5 Chome Shimizu 424, Japan USSR Dr. S. A. Studenetsky Director Research Institute of Marine Fisheries and Oceanography 17, V. Krasnoselskaya Moscow, B-140, 107140 USSR vi INPFC Mr. Bernard E. Skud Executive Director International North Pacific Fisheries Commission 6640 Northwest Marine Drive Vancouver, B.C. V6T 1X2 USA Dr.