TECHNICAL REPORT URBAN RISK AND RISK MANAGEMENT DIAGNOSIS FOR PLANNING AND IMPROVEMENT OF EFFECTIVENESS AT LOCAL LEVEL: APPLICATION TO MANIZALES CITY - COLOMBIA - Dora-Catalina Suárez Research supervisor: Omar D. Cardona INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES – IDEA UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE COLOMBIA – MANIZALES SEPTEMBER, 2009 Urban Risk and Risk Management Diagnosis for Planning and Improvement of Effectiveness at Local Level: Application to Manizales City INDEX 1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................... 5 1.1 BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................ 5 1.2 OBJECTIVE ................................................................................................................... 7 2 CHAPTER 2 FRAMEWORK ......................................................................... 8 2.1 THE HOLISTIC APPROACH OF VULNERABILITY AND RISK ..................... 8 3 CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY FOR THE EVALUATION .......................... 11 3.1 URBAN SEISMIC RISK INDEX, USRi ................................................................... 11 4 CHAPTER 4 APPLICATION URBAN SEISMIC RISK INDEX ..................... 21 4.1 PHYSICAL RISK ........................................................................................................ 21 4.1.1 Physical Risk Descriptors .................................................................................... 25 4.1.2 Physical Risk Factors........................................................................................... 27 4.2 AGGRAVATING COEFFICIENT ........................................................................... 31 4.2.1 Social Fragility Descriptors ................................................................................. 31 4.2.2 Lack of Resilience Descriptors ............................................................................ 34 4.2.3 Aggravating coefficient weights .......................................................................... 38 4.3 TOTAL RISK INDEX ................................................................................................. 42 5 ...... CHAPITRE 5. APPLICATION DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT INDEX45 5.1 RISK IDENTIFICATION .......................................................................................... 47 5.2 RISK REDUCTION .................................................................................................... 48 5.3 DISASTER MANAGEMENT .................................................................................... 49 5.4 GOVERNABILITY AND FINANTIAL PROTECTION ...................................... 51 5.5 DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT INDEX .......................................................... 52 6 CHAPITRE 6. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................... 55 7 APENDIXES ............................................................................................... 58 7.1 APPENDIX. TRANSFORMATION FUNCTIONS ................................................ 58 7.2 APPENDIX. RESULTS OF PHYSICAL RISK DESCRIPTORS FOR DIFFERENT RISK SCENARIOS IN MANIZALES ............................................ 65 7.3 APPENDIX. SOCIAL DISPARITY INDEX ........................................................... 72 7.4 APPENDIX. THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP) ...................... 79 8 BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................ 81 COMPLEMENTARY BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................... 87 2 Urban Risk and Risk Management Diagnosis for Planning and Improvement of Effectiveness at Local Level: Application to Manizales City INDEX FOR TABLES Table 4-1 Values of physical risk for the localities of Manizales ..................................................... 25 Table 4-2 Parameter for the application of sigmoidal function to physical risk descriptors ............. 27 Table 4-3 Physical risk factors .......................................................................................................... 28 Table 4-4 Weights for physical risk factors, Manizales .................................................................... 28 Table 4-5 Values of social fragility descriptors for the localities of Manizales ................................ 32 Table 4-6 Parameters for the sigmoidal function application to descriptors of social fragility ........ 34 Table 4-7 Factores de fragilidad social ............................................................................................. 34 Table 4-8 Lack of resilience descriptors values for Manizales ......................................................... 35 Table 4-9 Parameters for application of the sigmoidal function, lack of resilience descriptors ....... 38 Table 4-10 Lack of resilience factors ................................................................................................ 38 Table 4-11 Weights for social fragility and lack of resilience factors .............................................. 39 Table 4-12 Total Risk, Physical Risk and Aggravating Coefficient Indexes for Manizales ............. 42 Table 5-1Indicators of Identification Risk for Manizales ................................................................. 45 Table 5-2 Assessment of each of risk identification indicators, RI ................................................... 47 Table 5-3 Relative importance assigned to each indicator for risk identification and HAP application ......................................................................................................................................... 47 Table 5-4 Qualification for risk reduction each indicator, RR .......................................................... 48 Table 5-5 Relative importance assigned to each indicator for risk reduction and HAP application . 49 Table 5-6 Qualification for disaster management each indicator, DM ............................................. 50 Table 5-7 Relative importance assigned to each indicator for disaster management and HAP application ......................................................................................................................................... 50 Table 5-8 Qualification of each indicator of financial protection, FP ............................................... 51 Table 5-9 Comparison of the relative importance between FP indicators, and AHP application ..... 51 Table 5-10 DRMi for Manizales ....................................................................................................... 52 Table 5-11 Differences between the first and the last DRMi indicators for Manizales .................... 54 Table 7-1 Population during the day and the night for each locality ................................................ 65 Table 7-2 Build area for each locality ............................................................................................... 65 Table 7-3 Structural systems evaluated for Manizales ...................................................................... 66 Table 7-4 Results for the build area for different risk scenarios ....................................................... 67 Table 7-5 Results for the damaged area for different risk scenarios ................................................. 68 Table 7-6 Results for deaths, injured and trapped, average for the day and night for different risk scenarios ............................................................................................................................................ 68 Table 7-7 Results for deaths, injured average for the day and night for different risk scenarios ...... 69 Table 7-8 Losses summary for different risk scenarios .................................................................... 69 Table 7-9 Results for homeless and without jobs for different risk scenarios .................................. 70 Table 7-10 Homeless and people without job ................................................................................... 71 Table 7-11 NBI Dimensions and Variables ...................................................................................... 74 Table 7-12 Data for the living conditions indicator, for Manizales .................................................. 76 Table 7-13 Data for the Educational Level Indicator for Manizales ................................................. 77 Table 7-14 Partial Social Disparity Index for Manizales .................................................................. 78 Table 7-15 Comparison Matrix A of Three Sub-indicators (Semantic Scale) .................................. 79 Table 7-16 Comparison Matrix A of Three Sub-indicators (Weights) ............................................. 79 3 Urban Risk and Risk Management Diagnosis for Planning and Improvement of Effectiveness at Local Level: Application to Manizales City INDEX FOR FIGURES Figure 2-1. Framework and theoretical model for the holistic approach for vulnerability and disaster risk management assessment ............................................................................................................... 9 Figure 2-2 New Version of the Model .............................................................................................. 10 Figure 3-1 Example of transformation function for damaged area ................................................... 14 Figure 3-2 Scheme of the calculation process of the USRI .............................................................