Antelope Valley Line Study Final Report AVL ANTELOPE VALLEY LINE STUDY Contract No. PS-2415-3024-03 Final Report Prepared for: Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority Prepared by: 444 South Flower Street Suite 800 Review Copy Los Angeles, California 90071 Originator FNichols 9/30/19 In association with: Checker RMarcus 10/9/19 Pacific Railway Enterprises, Inc. Back Checker TLichterman 10/10/19 Rail Surveyors and Engineers, Inc. Format Checker CDavis 10/17/19 Approved by FNichols 10/18/19 October 22, 2019 Contents CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................. 1 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Study Purpose .............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Objectives, Assumptions and Study Scope ................................................................ 2 1.3 Study Participants and Stakeholder/Public Engagement ........................................... 3 2 EXISTING CONDITIONS ........................................................................................................ 4 2.1 Regional Growth and Economic Development .......................................................... 4 2.2 Rail Service ................................................................................................................... 4 2.3 Rail Infrastructure, Stations, Rolling Stock and Facilities .......................................... 6 2.4 Current Operations and Performance ...................................................................... 10 2.5 Travel Markets and Patterns ..................................................................................... 14 2.6 Capital Investment in the AVL ................................................................................... 23 3 FUTURE VISION FOR THE AVL CORRIDOR ...................................................................... 27 3.1 Demographics, Land Development and Economic Activity .................................... 27 3.2 Future Rail Ridership ................................................................................................. 28 3.3 Role and Nature of Rail Service in the AVL Corridor ................................................ 32 4 CURRENT PLANNING CONSIDERATIONS ........................................................................ 35 4.1 Rail Initiatives ............................................................................................................. 35 4.2 Transit Initiatives ....................................................................................................... 42 4.3 Local Development, Economic and Environmental Issues and Concerns .............. 43 4.4 Stakeholder Input and Feedback ............................................................................... 45 5 ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGIES .......................................................... 51 5.1 Methods of Analysis .................................................................................................. 51 5.2 Evaluation Methodology ............................................................................................ 55 5.3 Decision-Making and Implementation Framework ................................................. 58 6 AVL SERVICE SCENARIOS ................................................................................................... 60 6.1 Summary .................................................................................................................... 60 6.2 Rail Service Characteristics........................................................................................ 63 6.3 Operations and Maintenance Costs ......................................................................... 68 6.4 Capacity-Related Infrastructure Projects and Capital Costs to Support Service Scenarios ....................................................................................................... 70 6.5 Service Scenario Evaluation ...................................................................................... 77 6.6 Capital Project Evaluation ......................................................................................... 79 7 IMPLEMENTATION PRIORITIES ......................................................................................... 81 7.1 Phased Implementation Plan .................................................................................... 81 7.2 Operations and Operating Costs .............................................................................. 87 7.3 Capital Investment ..................................................................................................... 88 7.4 Funding Strategies ..................................................................................................... 90 7.5 Future Passenger Service with Multiple Operators in the AVL Corridor ................. 92 7.6 Future Rail Freight Service in the AVL Corridor ...................................................... 102 7.7 Future Decisions and Tradeoffs .............................................................................. 103 Antelope Valley Line Study Final Report October 22, 2019 | Contents 8 NEXT STEPS ........................................................................................................................ 106 8.1 Integrate AVL Study Results into Metrolink Systemwide Plans ............................. 107 8.2 Confirm Near-Term Service Improvements ........................................................... 107 8.3 Advance High Priority Early Capital Projects .......................................................... 107 8.4 Planning and Analysis to Support Future Decision-Making .................................. 108 8.5 Funding Plan for AVL Capital Investment and Service Improvement ................... 110 8.6 Outreach and Collaboration .................................................................................... 110 9 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................... 111 APPENDICES ............................................................................................................................... 113 Tables Table 2-1: AVL Segments and ROW Characteristics ...................................................................... 7 Table 2-2: Stations Serving AVL Within the Study Area ................................................................. 8 Table 2-3: Antelope Valley Line Train Load Factors at Peak Load Point by Time of Day – Average by Train over First Ten Months of FY 2018 ............................................................... 9 Table 2-4: AVL Segments, Station Groups and Catchment Areas ............................................... 18 Table 2-5: Daily Trips Between AVL Study Area Origin and Destination Zones ......................... 21 Table 2-6: Antelope Valley Line Capital Improvements ............................................................... 25 Table 3-1: Projected Daily Regional Travel Volumes and AVL Boardings, 2028 and 2042 ......... 29 Table 3-2: Existing and Projected Total Daily AVL Boardings, by Station Group........................ 31 Table 5-1: Unit Costs for Estimation of Incremental Operations and Maintenance Cost ......... 54 Table 5-2: AVL Study Evaluation Criteria Focused on Service Scenarios ................................... 56 Table 5-3: AVL Study Evaluation Criteria Focused on Capital Projects ...................................... 57 Table 6-1: Description of AVL Service Scenarios ......................................................................... 62 Table 6-2: Rail Service Characteristics, by Scenario ..................................................................... 63 Table 6-3: Round Trips per Day, by Scenario, for Purposes of Estimating Incremental O&M Costs ............................................................................................................................. 69 Table 6-4: Late Evening Round Trips, by Scenario, for Purposes of Estimating Incremental O&M Costs ........................................................................................................ 69 Table 6-5: Operating Days per Year .............................................................................................. 69 Table 6-6: Annual Round Trips and Revenue Hours, for Purposes of Estimating Incremental O&M Costs ........................................................................................................ 69 Table 6-7: Incremental Annual Operations and Maintenance Costs Compared to Existing AVL Service (Millions of 2018 dollars) ..................................................................... 70 Table 6-8: Rough Order of Magnitude Capital Cost, by Project and Scenario ............................ 76 Table 6-9: Evaluation and Ranking of AVL Service Scenarios ...................................................... 78 Table 6-10: Evaluation and Ranking of AVL Capital Projects ....................................................... 80 Table 7-1: Incremental Annual O&M Cost by Scenario, Compared to Existing Service ............. 88 Table 7-2: Funding Sources .......................................................................................................... 90 Table 7-3: Potential Trip Time Improvements