BETWEEN MAO AND GANDHI: STRATEGIES OF VIOLENCE AND NONVIOLENCE IN REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENTS A thesis Presented to the Faculty of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy by CHES THURBER In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy March 2015 Dissertation Committee: Richard Shultz, Chair H. Zeynep Bulutgil Erica Chenoweth CHES THURBER 104 E. Main St. #2, Gloucester, MA 02155 [email protected] | (617) 710-2617 DOB: September 21, 1982 in New York, NY, USA EDUCATION Tufts University, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy PH.D. | International Relations (2015) Dissertation: “Between Mao and Gandhi: Strategies of Violence and Nonviolence in Revolutionary Movements” Committee: Richard Shultz, Zeynep Bulutgil, Erica Chenoweth M.A.L.D. | International Relations (2010) Middlebury College B.A. | International Studies (summa cum laude, Phi Beta Kappa, 2004) ACADEMIC University of Chicago APPOINTMENTS Postdoctoral Fellow, Chicago Project on Security and Terrorism (Beginning Aug. 1, 2015) Program on Political Violence Harvard University Research Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs (2014-2015) International Security Program PUBLICATIONS “Militias as Sociopolitical Movements: Lessons from Iraq’s Armed Shia Groups" in Small Wars and Insurgencies 25, nos. 5-6 (October 2014): 900-923. Review of The Maoist Insurgency in Nepal: Revolution in the Twenty-First Century, edited by Mahendra Lawoti and Anuk K. Pahari, in Himalaya 34, no. 1 (Spring 2014): 148-150. “A Step Short of the Bomb: Explaining the Strategy of Nuclear Hedging” in Journal of Public and International Affairs (2011). “From Coexistence to Cleansing: The Rise of Sectarian Violence in Baghdad, 2003-2006” in al-Nakhlah: Journal of Southwest Asia and Islamic Civilization (March 2011). FELLOWSHIPS, Mahindra Humanities Center Mellon Seminar Associate, Harvard University (2014-2015) GRANTS & Smith Richardson Foundation World Politics and Statecraft Fellowship (2014-2015) AWARDS Tobin Project National Security Fellowship (2014) Scaife Foundation Scholarship (2011-2014) International Security Studies Program Dissertation Fellowship (2010-2014) The Fletcher School Doctoral Summer Research Grant (2013-2014) Program on Negotiation Next Generation Grant, Harvard Law School (2013) Eisenhower Foundation Clifford Roberts Fellowship (2012-2013) Bradley Foundation Dissertation Fellowship (2010-2011) John Moors Cabot Scholar, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (2009-2010) American Academy of Diplomacy Leonard Marks Essay Contest Winner (2009) 1 of 4 Southwest Asia Program Summer Work and Research Fellowship (2009) Kathryn Davis Fellowship for Peace, Middlebury College (Declined 2009) General Scholarship, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (2008-2009) TEACHING Lecturer, Tufts University, School of Arts and Sciences EXPERIENCE Theory and Practice of Nonviolent Resistance (Fall 2014) Lecturer, University of Alaska, Department of Political Science Recognized by College of Liberal Arts for Excellence in Teaching for Fall 2012 Political Economy (Winter 2013, Fall 2012) International Politics (Fall 2012, Fall 2011) Political Science Research Methods (Fall 2012, Fall 2011) Peace, War and Security (Spring 2012) Teaching Assistant, Tufts University, Department of Political Science Introduction to Comparative Politics (Spring 2015) Introduction to International Relations (Spring 2014, Spring 2011, Fall 2010) Introduction to American Politics (Fall 2013) Teaching Assistant, Tufts University, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Processes of International Negotiation (2010-2012) Proliferation, Counter-proliferation, and Homeland Security (Spring 2010) Crisis Management and Complex Emergencies (Fall 2009) International Relations: Theory and Practice (Fall 2009) CONFERENCE “Resistance Networks and the Ethnic Limits of Nonviolent Action,” Paper Presenter PRESENTATIONS Midwest Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL (April 2015) Harvard-Yale-MIT Political Violence Conference, Cambridge, MA (April 2015) International Studies Association Annual Meeting, New Orleans, LA (February 2015) Fletcher Doctoral Conference, Medford, MA (September 2014) Midwest Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL (April 2014) “Stacking to Repress: The Effect of Ethnic Manipulation in the Military on State Violence,” Paper Presenter, with Paul Lorenzo Johnson Midwest Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL (April 2015) International Studies Association Annual Meeting, New Orleans, LA (February 2015) “Who Guards the Guardians? Leveraging New Data in Civil-Military Relations and Con- flict,” Invited Workshop Participant Peace Science Society Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, PA (October 2014) “The One Who Must Not Be Named: The Leverage of External Powers on Armed Group Strategy," Paper Presenter International Studies Association Annual Meeting, Toronto, ON (March 2014) “The Ethnic Composition of State Security Forces: Introducing a New Dataset” Paper Presenter, with Paul Lorenzo Johnson Midwest Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL (April 2014) International Studies Association Annual Meeting, Toronto, ON (March 2014) 2 of 4 “Violence and Nonviolence in Revolutionary Movements,” Paper Presenter International Studies Association Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA (April 2013) Western Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Hollywood, CA (March 2013) “Transatlantic Perspectives on Immigration," Discussant Western Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Hollywood, CA (March 2013). “Alternative Governance in Afghanistan,” Panel Organizer Fletcher Doctoral Annual Conference, Medford, MA (September, 2012) INVITED TALKS “Between Mao and Gandhi: Violence and Nonviolence in Revolutionary Movements,” Belfer Center International Security Program Seminar, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA (December 2014). “Imperfect Calculus: Ideology, Organization, and Strategy in Revolutionary Movements,” Fletcher School Doctoral Research Colloquium, Medford, MA (November 2013). “Strategies of Violence and Nonviolence in Nepal’s Political Movements," Martin Chautari Invited Speaker Series, Kathmandu, Nepal (July 2013). “Investigating the Correlates of Civil Resistance Campaigns Using Logistic Regression,” UAF Seminar on Applied Multivariate Statistics, Fairbanks, AK (April 2012). “Legitimate Rebels: Insurgent-Civilian Relations and Armed Group Behavior,” Fletcher School Doctoral Research Colloquium, Medford, MA (April 2011). “Sadr, SCIRI, Scary? Iraq’s Armed Shia Groups,” Women in International Security, Fletcher Chapter, Medford, MA (February, 2010). MEDIA Australian Broadcast Corporation, “Big Ideas,” February 18, 2015 (Radio). APPEARANCES RESEARCH Space Policy Working Group ASSISTANCE The Fletcher School/MIT Lincoln Laboratories, Dr. William Martel (2010-2011) Berkman Center for Internet and Society Harvard Law School, Dr. Corinna di Gennaro (2008) POLICY Public Affairs Intern, U.S. Embassy Doha, Qatar (2009) EXPERIENCE Legislative Assistant, Office of Rep. Peter Welch, Washington, DC (2007-2008) Aide to the President Pro Temp., Vermont State Senate, Montpelier, VT (2006) Policy Analyst, Vermont Medical Society, Montpelier, VT (2005) Legislative Assistant, United Parcel Service, Washington, DC (2004-2005) PROFESSIONAL Reviewer, International Security, Conflict Management and Peace Science SERVICE Convener, Fletcher Doctoral Research Colloquium (2010-2011) Interviewer, Fletcher Ph.D. Admissions Committee (2010-2011) Editor, Proceedings of the 2010 Fletcher Doctoral Conference (2010) Managing Editor, The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs (2008-2010) TRAINING Institute for Qualitative and Multi-method Research, Syracuse, NY (2012) iTeach Workshop, eLearning and Distance Education, Fairbanks, AK (2012) 3 of 4 GLOBAL India (July 2014) RESEARCH & Italy (Sep. 2002-June 2003) STUDY Nepal (May-July 2013, May-June 2014) Qatar (May-July 2009) Sri Lanka (July 2014) SKILLS Languages: Arabic (int.), Italian (adv.), French (adv.), Nepali (beg.) Software: R, ArcGIS, NVIVO, LaTex PROFESSIONAL American Political Science Association MEMBERSHIPS APSA - Section on Qualitative and Multimethod Research International Studies Association Peace Science Society (International) 4 of 4 Abstract From Eastern Europe to South Africa to the Arab Spring, nonviolent action has proven ca- pable of overthrowing autocratic regimes and bringing about revolutionary political change. In fact, recent research suggests that nonviolent movements are more than twice as effective in achieving their goals than violent ones. So why do some political movements neverthe- less believe it necessary to take up arms? Can they be convinced otherwise? This dissertation examines why political movements that seek to overthrow the state come to embrace a strategy of either armed insurgency or civil resistance. I argue that char- acteristics of a movement’s base of popular support—its size, organization, and networked structure—influence the movement’s perceptions of the relative effectiveness of violent ver- sus nonviolent tactics and consequently shape its strategic behavior. To test the theory, I employ a mixed-method research design. Statistical analysis of a cross-national dataset of revolutionary movements allows me to test competing theories and locate new empirical puzzles. Based on these quantitative findings, I select four cases of revolutionary campaigns from Nepal for a more fine-grained qualitative study. Drawing on six months of fieldwork in Nepal and